Publication - Statistics

GDP Monthly Estimate: June 2021

Published: 25 August 2021
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Part of: Economy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.9% in June, but remains 2.1% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Services sector output grew by 1.2% in June, with increases in seven of the fourteen subsectors. The largest contribution to growth was from accommodation and food services for the third month in a row, as activity continued to pick up after the easing of restrictions.

Output in the production sector increased by 0.5% overall, with growth in the electricity and gas supply subsector offset by falls in manufacturing and water and waste management.

Output in the construction sector is estimated to have fallen by 1.4%, broadly in line with the UK as a whole over the course of the latest quarter.

Using the experimental monthly statistics for Quarter 2 as a whole (April to June), GDP is provisionally estimated to have grown by 4.9%, reflecting a recovery in output after the fall of 1.8% during the lockdown restrictions in Quarter 1. In quarterly terms, output remains 3.6% below the pre-pandemic levels in 2019 Quarter 4.

Important Information About This Release

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation), and relate to Scotland’s onshore economy (which does not include offshore oil and gas extraction).

Further information can be found in the full publication below (pdf).