This is the third publication of monthly GDP statistics for Scotland, which have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are designated as experimental official statistics. This means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.
- In June, Scotland’s GDP is provisionally estimated to have increased by 5.7% compared to May. This follows an increase of 2.3% in May and falls of 19.2% in April and 5.8% in March.
- Despite the increases in May and June, GDP remains 17.6% below the level in February, prior to the lockdown measures which were introduced in March.
- In June there has been a stronger and more widespread pickup in activity than in May, with output increasing in all the main industry sectors, and in most sub-sectors within these.
- Using the experimental monthly statistics for Quarter 2 as a whole (April to June), GDP is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 19.7% compared to Quarter 1, after a fall of 2.5% in Quarter 1. Across the two quarters of contraction, output is estimated to have fallen by a total of 21.7% compared to 2019 Quarter 4.
- The more robust Quarterly GDP First Estimate (national statistics) will be published on 16 September, and the results for all months in April to June may be revised when the more detailed and comprehensive data are available at that time.
Important Information About This Release
These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources and methods are further improved.
Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the exceptional economic circumstances at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change over the four months of March to June. In this release for June there are also provisional results in quarterly terms for Quarter 2 (April-June).
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