- 23 Sep 2020
This is the fourth publication of monthly GDP statistics for Scotland, which have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are designated as experimental official statistics. This means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.
- In July, Scotland’s GDP is provisionally estimated to have increased by 6.8% compared to June. This follows revised estimates of 6.7% growth in June and 3.1% May, and falls of 20.1% in April and 4.9% in March, consistent with the Quarterly GDP First Estimate publication on 16 September.
- Despite the increases in the last three months, GDP remains 10.7% below the level in February, prior to the direct impacts of COVID-19. Compared to the lowest point in April, this means that just over half of the lost output has been recovered.
- In July there has been further growth in the three main sectors of the economy. Output in the Services sector is estimated to have increased by 5.5% compared to June, but remains 11.9% below its level in February. Output in the Production sector increased by 8.6%, but remains 5.4% below its level in February, and Construction sector output is estimated to have increased by 23.4% in July, but remains 11.9% below its level in February.
Important information about this release
These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources are updated and methods are further improved.
Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the exceptional economic circumstances at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change over the course of the five months since February.