This is the first publication of monthly GDP statistics for Scotland, which have been developed to help track the economic impact of COVID-19 and to assist in the response.
These are designated as experimental official statistics, which means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.
- Scotland’s GDP is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 18.9% in real terms during April, after a fall of 5.0% in March. These results are very similar to the pattern seen across the UK as a whole, and reflect the direct economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland during the first weeks and full month of the lockdown phase.
- The industries with the largest falls in output over the latest two months are those which have been required to close or where working at home is not possible. This includes Accommodation & Food Services (down 85% over two months) and Arts, Culture & Recreation Services (down 51% over two months).
- These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources and methods are further improved. Any apparent differences between Scotland and the UK as a whole are within the likely margin of error and should not be interpreted as significant.
Important information about this release
Monthly GDP for Scotland has been produced using a combination of newly available data sources and by applying new methods to the existing data available for Scotland’s Quarterly GDP statistics.
These statistics have been developed in a very short period of time to provide public value at the time of an emerging economic crisis. Users are asked to recognise that the results are provisional and will be revised when more data become available and methods have been further improved.
Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the exceptional economic circumstances at this time, all results in this release are presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change over the two months of March and April.
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