Monthly business turnover index: December 2020

An Experimental Statistics Publication for Scotland

The Monthly Business Turnover Index gives an early indicator of business activity in Scotland, based on survey data used for GDP statistics and covering around half of the economy.

This document is part of a collection

Latest Results

  • In December, compared to one month ago, the all industry turnover index is 48.0, indicating that more companies have reported decreasing sales than increasing sales. This is the first time that the index has dropped below 50 since April, and the results indicate that turnover has fallen in most sectors covered by these statistics.
  • Compared to 12 months ago, the all-industry business turnover index is 44.0, indicating that most companies still report turnover to be lower than the same month last year. The index is lowest in the sectors which are directly impacted by the restrictions on activity which were in place across the large parts of the country in protection levels 3 and 4 during various periods in December. 
  • The business turnover index does not give a direct indication of the size of any GDP growth or contraction, but gives an early indication that activity in December was weaker than in November across large parts of the economy. GDP estimates for December will be published on 24 February.

About This Release

The Monthly Business Turnover Index is based on the ONS Monthly Business Survey and Retail Sales Inquiry. These are the largest data sources used for GDP statistics, and cover the output of around half the economy.

The index is similar to the IHS Markit PMI indicators. It reports the net balance of firms reporting increasing or decreasing turnover, in real terms, compared to last month and to 12 months ago. An index value of 50 is in balance and indicates that turnover is broadly unchanged compared to last month or 12 months ago. Values below 50 indicate that more companies are showing decreased turnover than increased turnover, broadly indicating falling sales, whereas values above 50 indicate increasing sales.

Further information on these statistics is available here.




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