Modelling the economic impact of US tariffs on Scotland and the rest of the world: technical paper
Technical paper on the use of structural gravity modelling which sets out economic modelling on the potential impact of US Tariffs on Scotland and the rest of the world.
Footnotes
1 For example, OBR use a different approach and construct three stylised scenarios for trade policy in the US, UK, and rest of the world. Estimates are drawn from a range of models, empirical estimates, and trade scenarios from other institutions. The OBR finds that US tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada with equivalent retaliation (scenario 1) would leave UK GDP largely unchanged from its central forecast in the medium to long term, while in scenario 2 (the US also increases tariffs on goods arriving from all other countries, including the UK, by 20 percentage points), UK GDP is estimated to be permanently lower GDP level by around 0.3 per cent. Alternative trade policy scenarios - Office for Budget Responsibility
3 Baier, Scott L., Yoto V. Yotov, and Thomas Zylkin. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration". Journal of International Economics 116 (2019): 206-226.
4 Retrieved from https://wits.worldbank.org/
5 Borchert, I., Larch, M., Shikher, S., and Yotov, Y. (2024), “Globalization, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from a New Database." USITC Working Paper 2024–11–A. Retrieved from https://www.usitc.gov/data/gravity/itpds
6 Egger, P., Larch, M., Nigai, S., & Yotov, Y. (2018). “Trade Costs in the Global Economy:
Measurement, Aggregation and Decomposition.” WTO Staff Working Paper ERSD-2021-2. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202102_e.pdf
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot