Scotland's prison population: Justice Secretary's statement - 12 February 2026

Ministerial Statement: Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission (And Automatic Release of Short Term Prisoners – Laying of Regulations and Consultation Conclusion)

Thursday 12 February

Presiding Officer, in my statement to Parliament on 3 February, I announced my intention to lay regulations to change the automatic release point for some short-term prisoners to 30% of their sentence.

I am taking this action because the prison population remains unsustainably high, and to ensure that the prison estate is safe for those who work and live there. This decision was not taken lightly and public safety and the protection of victims remains a priority.

Before making regulations to change the release point, Scottish Ministers must by law consult a range of named organisations, as well as any other persons they consider appropriate. The Scottish Government wrote to consultees after my statement to

Parliament last Tuesday and 28 responses were received. There were a broad range of views expressed and it will not be possible to outline all of this to Parliament today. In the

interests of transparency, it is my intention to publish responses shared during the consultation, where permission is given. My officials have written to respondents to seek their permission to share responses provided.

In general, there was recognition of the impact and risks of a high prison population. Some respondents felt the proposals were necessary to mitigate those impacts, others wanted the focus to be on longer-term reform to address underlying drivers of the prison population alongside an analysis of measures undertaken. I will say more on the need for this change to be delivered alongside longer-term reform today.

There were also a range of issues raised by consultees including a need for clearer information on release arrangements for victims and the wider public, to support public

protection and to manage the impact on demand for public sector services and the community and consequently the impact this could have on outcomes for those being released. I have listened to these views. I and my officials will continue to work with stakeholders on all aspects of delivery.

The Scottish Government and Scottish Prisons Service will work with Victim Support Organisations to raise awareness of these changes and to encourage those who are eligible to sign up to the Victim Notification Scheme. All registered victims, where a release date changes as a result of this legislation, will be notified of the new release date in advance.

It is critical that partners have time to plan and prepare support for people leaving custody. That is why the changes will not take effect until after the Emergency Early Release scheme ends in April, and those eligible for immediate release will be released in tranches, to help manage the impact on community services.

I am committed to reviewing the impact of these changes next year.

Presiding Officer, I have always been clear that there is no single or simple solution to an issue which is being faced elsewhere in the UK and beyond. There are, however, solutions that do not compromise public safety and as a Parliament and society we need to discuss how we achieve a system where justice is served, and the right balance between effective community justice and imprisonment is struck.

I am therefore pleased that the independent Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission published its final recommendations last week. I am grateful to the Commissioners, and the chair Martyn Evans, for the diligent work they have carried out.

This detailed report offers us a clear opportunity to rethink our approach as a country. By following the evidence, we can continue to safeguard the public and prioritise victims while accepting that simply increasing the prison population does not make Scotland safer. A renewed focus on prevention and reducing reoffending will lead to better outcomes for individuals, communities, and our justice system as a whole.

I will set out today the government’s response in principle to the most central recommendations, but more in-depth consideration of the 73 recommendations will be required.

Ultimately, it will be for a new Government and Parliament to make decisions on the changes that are needed.

The Commission has recommended a prohibition on sentences of less than one year – subject to clarity on legislative competence – and extending the presumption against short sentences to sentences of two years or less. We will explore this carefully, and engage with the UK Government, as some short sentences are for reserved areas of law. However, I note that the UK Government has also introduced a similar presumption.

Whilst there is a longer-term trend away from shorter sentences, a high number do continue to be imposed. In 2023-24, 73% of short-term sentences were for less than 12 months and a further 15% under 24 months or less.

We know that community sentences can be more effective in reducing reoffending than short sentences which can disrupt lives and adversely affect employment opportunities, stable housing and access to healthcare. Indeed, the reconviction rate for those given Community Payback Orders in 2021-22 was 28.4% compared to 52.6% for those completing custodial sentences of one year or less. However, as the Commission points out, if greater numbers of people are to be sentenced in the community, victims’ interests, safety, and confidence must be central, and this shift must be accompanied by clear safeguards and credible measures that protect victims.

I agree with the Commission’s observation that investment is needed to underpin delivery of high quality community disposals. This Government will invest a further £10 million in community justice services in 2026-27, taking our total investment to a record £169 million. This increase builds on additional investment of £25 million over the past two years, underlining this Government’s commitment to strengthening community justice across Scotland.

We will also focus on simplification, flexibility and enhancing support, in line with the recommendations, recognising that tailored and targeted interventions, addressing the drivers of offending behaviour, can often be the most effective.

Presiding Officer, the Commission also recommend explicitly excluding the possibility of remand where there is no real prospect of a short custodial sentence.

Significant progress has already been made via the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023, which introduced a new bail test, aimed at ensuring remand is used as a last resort. We are seeing an increase in the capacity of, and confidence in, alternatives to remand, with a total of 1,500 bail supervision cases in 2024-25.

Again, I note a recent change made in England & Wales to apply fewer exceptions to bail where a there is no real prospect of an immediate custodial sentence, and we may be able to learn from their experience.

Presiding Officer, the Commission recommends consideration of different uses of electronic monitoring technology. There has already been sustained progress with almost 2,500 people electronically monitored on any given day. SPS expect to make use of GPS for home detention curfews in the next few months, and we will consider where else that technology can be deployed.

The Commission also make a clear recommendation relating to the release point for long-term prisoners. As I have previously stated to Parliament, I remain committed to reviewing that to achieve a better balance between time in custody and time spent in the community under strict licence conditions, as part of a person’s overall sentence. Having looked at the evidence, the Commission considered that extended supervision would be beneficial for the management of risk, as well as for reducing reoffending. We will carefully consider the Commission's recommended option of reverting the release point to two-thirds as was in place prior to 2016.

Presiding Officer, as the Commission points out, Scotland is not uniquely criminal and should not inherently have a higher prison population than other countries. They have provided us with the opportunity to make bold, evidence-based, changes across the justice system and I once again thank them for their commendable work.

We must be open-minded and collaborative, as other countries have been, and where safe, appropriate and more effective alternatives to prison exist, we should use them. The evidence clearly shows that a high prison population does not equal a safer society. Instead these recommendations can support a reduction in reoffending and therefore a continued reduction in crime, something we all want to see.