Fishing - pelagic quota cuts 2026: island communities impact assessment
Island communities impact assessment (ICIA) for the Scottish Government response to the consultation on pelagic quota cuts 2026.
Step One – Develop a Clear Understanding of Your Objectives
What are the objectives of the policy, strategy or service?
Following annual fisheries international negotiations, the UK has agreed significant quota reductions for 2026, including a 48% reduction in the North East Atlantic mackerel Total Allowable Catch (TAC) and a 22% reduction for herring. These reductions in available fishing opportunities are expected to reduce pelagic fishing activity and create material risk for Scottish processing factories and the wider supply chain.
In this context, the objective of the Scottish Government’s intervention for 2026 is to help maintain the volume and regularity of pelagic fish landed into Scotland, thereby supporting the resilience of pelagic processing capacity and associated port and coastal economic activity during a period of exceptional quota constraint. This is intended to support the original aims of the amended economic link policy introduced from January 2023, namely to:
- support long-term, sustainable growth of local economies where fishing is a key driver by increasing the volume and regularity of fish landed and available for processing in Scotland;
- reduce supply chain risk to encourage investment and safeguard employment; and
- spread the economic and social benefits of Scotland’s quota more widely through fishing communities.
The Scottish Government has therefore assessed whether additional measures for 2026 are necessary, proportionate and in the public interest. This includes weighing strong calls from processors and port interests for action to maintain domestic throughput, against strong opposition from some catcher interests—particularly independent operators—who emphasise market flexibility and concerns about price differentials.
Given the urgency, the evidence base has been informed by; landings and socioeconomic analysis in the BRIA and associated impact assessments; evidence from the amended economic link policy; and, accelerated stakeholder engagement (including 26 individual sessions with catching, processing and port interests and meetings with sector representative bodies).
The overarching outcome is an evidence-based decision on whether intervention is justified and, if so, what form it should take to maximise public benefit while minimising unintended consequences.
What are the intended impacts/ outcomes?
The intended impacts of this policy assessment are to support the resilience of Scotland’s pelagic sector in the face of the agreed quota reductions for 2026 while balancing economic and social considerations across the supply chain. These include:
- Economic resilience: Help maintain operational viability across both catching and processing sectors by limiting the scale of the reduction in domestic throughput during 2026, safeguarding employment and investment confidence in key coastal communities while taking account of the operational realities for catching businesses.
- Balanced supply chain impacts: Balanced supply chain impacts: protect downstream and supporting activity linked to pelagic landings and processing (including transport/logistics, engineering and other onshore services) by supporting the volume and regularity of landings into Scotland during a period of exceptional quota constraint.
- Food security: Food security and supply resilience: Improve the stability of pelagic product supply to Scottish and UK markets by supporting domestic processing throughput, reducing exposure to international supply volatility and strengthening resilience in the seafood supply chain.
How do these potentially differ across the islands?
Modelling demonstrates that the amendments will have the greatest impact on Scotland’s pelagic fleet which currently land significant volumes of mackerel and herring abroad. Scotland’s pelagic fleet is concentrated in the districts of Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Shetland.
| Port | Into Scotland
Tonnes |
Into Scotland
Value (£) |
Outside Scotland
Tonnes |
Outside Scotland
Value (£) |
Total Landings
Tonnes |
Total Landings
Value (£) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraserburgh | 291,708 | 300,005,643 | 204,614 | 232,929,251 | 496,322 | 532,934,893 |
| Peterhead | 193,670 | 211,343,627 | 28,229 | 81,401,882 | 221,899 | 292, 745,509 |
| Shetland | 150,241 | 150,359,434 | 255,383 | 293,870,716 | 405,625 | 444,230,150 |
| Grand Total | 635,620 | 661,708,703 | 488,226 | 608,201,849 | 1,123,845 | 1,269,910,552 |
In addition to Table 1 (above), the tables below provide greater detail on landings by the pelagic fleet vessels into and outside Scotland.
Fraserburgh and Peterhead registered vessels (Scotland – mainland*):
| Year | No of vessels | Landings value into Scotland | Landings value outside of Scotland | Total landings value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 12 | £78,491,472 | £41,991,225 | £120,482,697 |
| 2021 | 12 | £91,269,845 | £38,339,154 | £129,608,999 |
| 2022 | 13 | £98,382,456 | £45,031,690 | £143,414,146 |
| 2023 | 13 | £106,670,293 | £58,021,161 | £164,691,454 |
| 2024 | 12 | £136,535,203 | £130,947,903 | £267,483,106 |
*Fraserburgh and Peterhead figures have been combined to protect business confidentiality.
Shetland registered vessels (Scotland – Island):
| Year | No of vessels | Landings value into Scotland | Landings value outside of Scotland | Total landings value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8 | £16,294,059 | £54,767,616 | £71,064,674 |
| 2021 | 8 | £23,053,568 | £50,236,268 | £73,289,736 |
| 2022 | 8 | £25,827,455 | £49,564,596 | £75,392,051 |
| 2023 | 9 | £37,455,922 | £59,733,849 | £97,189,771 |
| 2024 | 9 | £47,722,357 | £79,568,387 | £127,290,942 |
Impact on pelagic vessels
Pelagic vessels which, prior to the introduction of the amended economic link policy in 2023, landed most of their catch abroad (whether registered in Fraserburgh, Peterhead or Shetland) have since increased the percentages of their catch into Scottish ports. This can be seen in the increase in the value of landings made into Scottish ports in 2023 and 2024, roughly 90% for the mainland vessels and 84% for the Shetland vessels.
The balance of the value landings, between those into Scotland and those outside of Scotland, has shifted from roughly 30:70% to 44:56% for mainland vessels and from 33:67% to 38:62% for Shetland vessels.
In the same period (2023-24) there has been a significant growth in the total value of landings (herring and mackerel) attributable to this fleet segment, roughly 86% for the mainland vessels and 68% for the Shetland vessels.
Impact on pelagic processors
The main pelagic processing plants are located near the Scottish ports where the Scottish pelagic fleet are based and land (Peterhead and Lerwick). These businesses have benefitted from increased landings of herring and mackerel by Scottish vessels.
The amended economic link policy intervention also protects downstream sectors such as secondary processors and logistics.
Summary
Modelling shows that the three landing districts are most impacted because they are the only districts which administer large pelagic vessels (ports at which vessels are registered). One of these three areas is the Shetland Isles. Though these vessels will be impacted, vessels will be similarly impacted as those based in Peterhead and Fraserburgh.
It is anticipated that the policy change will result in additional landings into Scotland which will benefit pelagic processors – particularly the four main pelagic processors (based in Peterhead and Lerwick).