Publication - Statistics

Housing statistics quarterly update: March 2021

Published: 23 Mar 2021

A summary of activity in new build housing and affordable housing in Scotland.

34 page PDF

2.4 MB

34 page PDF

2.4 MB

Contents
Housing statistics quarterly update: March 2021
5. UK House Price Index (HPI) new build sales transactions, as a measure of private-led housebuilding activity to end October 2020

34 page PDF

2.4 MB

5. UK House Price Index (HPI) new build sales transactions, as a measure of private-led housebuilding activity to end October 2020

This section sets out the latest quarterly and monthly trends in the number of new build sales transactions in Scotland to end October 2020, based on residential property transaction figures published as part of the UK House Price Index (HPI)[2].

These figures may be helpful in providing an indication of recent levels of private led new housebuilding activity, particularly given the current delay in the publication of the Scottish Government new housebuilding private-led starts and completions figures.[3]

It should be noted that the HPI-based figures are not directly comparable to the Scottish Government time series on private-led new build starts and completion, due to some differences in how the two sets of figures are constructed. For example, the UK HPI new build sales transaction figures are based on the date of the completed sales transaction rather than the date of completion, and will also not include self-build dwellings or homes built privately for tenures other than private sales.

Further information on the quality of the HPI data for Scotland, which is sourced from Registers of Scotland, is available in the UK HPI Quality Assurance section of the UK House Price Index web page.

Table 3 and Chart 7a below illustrate how the UK HPI figures compare to previously published Scottish Government Private sector-led completion figures in each quarter from January to March 2019 onwards, and also provide the latest trends seen in the UK HPI new build sales transactions figures across the two more recent quarters to July to September 2020.

It can be seen across the period January to March 2019 to January to March 2020 (the latest available quarterly figures for Scottish Government Private led completions) that both data series follow similar trends in respect of increases or decreases compared to the previous quarter. The Scottish Government figures are higher each quarter, but this is likely to be explained by differences in how the figures are constructed, given that some self-build dwellings or dwellings built privately for tenures other than private sales will be included, whereas the HPI figures are based on private sale transactions only.

Table 3: Scotland-level HPI New Build Sales Transactions Volume for Scotland and Scottish Government Private Sector-led new build completions
HPI New Build Sales Transactions Volume Scottish Government Private-led completions
Jan – Mar 2019 2,407 3,438
Apr – Jun 2019 3,293 4,484
Jul – Sep 2019 2,759 4,009
Oct – Dec 2019 3,807 4,756
Jan – Mar 2020 2,360 2,989
Apr – Jun 2020 698 Not available
Jul – Sep 2020 2,337 Not available
Change from previous quarter 1,639  
Change (%) from previous quarter 235%  
Change from same quarter in previous year -422  
Change (%) from same quarter in previous year -15%  

Sources: UK House Price Index: reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (December 2020 data downloads) and Scottish Government Private Sector-led new build completions

Chart 7a: Scottish Government Private Sector led housebuilding completions and HPI new build sales transactions. Scotland: Jan - Mar 2019 to Jul - Sept 2020
Scottish Government Private Sector led new housebuilding completions and HPI new build sales transactions from January 2019 to September 2020

The latest quarterly HPI figures show that there were 2,337 new build sales transactions in Scotland in the quarter July to September 2020, an increase of 1,639 on the 698 transactions seen in April to June 2020, and which follows the easing of COVID-19 related construction and housing market restrictions from late June 2020 onwards.

The 2,337 new build sales transactions in July to September 2020 is 422 (15%) transactions below the level seen in the same quarter in the previous year, indicating that private new build activity may not have fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the quarter to end September 2020. However more recent HPI figures for the month of October 2020 indicate a greater level of recovery, with 1,114 transactions in this single month, an increase of 47 (4%) on the number of transactions in October 2019 (see Chart 7b).

Table 4 below shows the local authority level HPI figures for the number of private new build sales transactions. It can be seen that nearly all local authority areas have seen a substantial increase in the number of private new build sales in July to September 2020 when compared to the previous quarter April to July 2020. Apart from Na h-Eileanan Siar and Shetland Islands, which both showed no increase, every other local authority area has seen volumes of transactions increase by 94% or more.

When looking at levels of private new build sales in July to September 2020 compared to the same quarter in the previous year, 21 out of 32 authority areas have levels which are below what they were in July to September 2019. However when looking at the more recent single month of October 2020, a greater recovery of sales is apparent, with 21 out of 32 authorities seeing an increase in sales, with only 9 authorities showing a drop, and 2 showing no change.

Table 4: UK House Price Index (HPI) Scotland local authority level private new build sales transactions
Jul-Sep 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-Mar 2020 Apr-Jun 2020 Jul-Sep Jul-Sep 2020 compared to previous quarter Jul-Sep 2020 compared to same quarter in prevous year 2020 Month of Oct 2019 Month of Oct 2020 Difference Difference (%)
Aberdeenshire 123 133 81 32 110 78 244% -13 -11% 42 46 4 10%
Angus 51 85 42 17 56 39 229% 5 10% 18 22 4 22%
Argyll and Bute 14 44 14 8 21 13 163% 7 50% 10 15 5 50%
City of Aberdeen 102 154 97 34 99 65 191% -3 -3% 34 37 3 9%
City of Dundee 51 57 50 12 86 74 617% 35 69% 7   2013 186%
City of Edinburgh 337 397 295 72 221 149 207% -116 -34% 104 109 5 5%
City of Glasgow 222 309 215 50 192 142 284% -30 -14% 96 99 3 3%
Clackmannanshire 23 31 28 7 30 23 329% 730% 4 10   6 150%
Dumfries and Galloway 27 31 16 3 24 21 700% -3- 11% 17 0 -17 -100%
East Ayrshire 34 41 25 16 46 30 188% 12 35% 8 13 5 63%
East Dunbartonshire 56 93 52 2 18 16 800% -38 -68% 28 22 -6 -21%
East Lothian 156 240 136 44 139 95 216% -17 -11% 62 80 18 29%
East Renfrewshire 82 117 67 11 66 55 500% -16 -20% 28 36 8 29%
Falkirk 71 117 47 12 52 40 333% -19 -27% 42 23 -19 -45%
Fife 175 223 137 65 126 61 94% -49 -28% 65 67 2 3%
Highland 105 160 105 20 84 64 320% -21 -20% 44 41 -3 -7%
Inverclyde 24 14 16 8 22 14 175% -2 -8% 2 9 7 350%
Midlothian 80 166 79 27 94 67 248% 14 18% 47 46 -1 -2%
Moray 48 42 34 6 68 62 1033% 20 42% 10 10 0 0%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 2   2 1 1 0 0% -1 -50% 0 1 1 n/a
North Ayrshire 31 50 51 11 56 45 409% 25 81% 16 27 11 69%
North Lanarkshire 207 321 173 62 182 120 194% -25 -12% 90 84 -6 -7%
Orkney Islands 4 2 3 1 3 2 200% -1 -25% 0 4 4 n/a
Perth and Kinross 129 137 78 20 88 68 340% -41 -32% 39 36 -3 -8%
Renfrewshire 124 176 115 30 91 61 203% -33 -27% 60 74 14 23%
Scottish Borders 9 23 10 4 18 14 350% 9 100% 6 12 6 100%
Shetland Islands 3 3   0 0 0 0% -3 -100% 0 0 0 n/a
South Ayrshire 30 53 26 11 24 13 118% -6 -20% 19 21 2 11%
South Lanarkshire 250 315 199 56 140 84 150% -110 -44% 101 66 -35 -35%
Stirling 18 27 18 7 30 23 329% 12 67% 10 7 -3 -30%
West Dunbartonshire 26 38 16 4 26 22 550% 0 0% 7 16 9 129%
West Lothian 145 208 133 45 124 79 176% -21 -14% 51 61 10 20%
Scotland 2,759 3,807 2,360 698 2,337 1,639 235% -422 -15% 1,067 1,114 47 4%

Source: UK House Price Index: reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (December 2020 data downloads)

Chart 7b: There were 1,114 private new bild sales transactions in Scotland in Oct 2020, an increase of 47 (4%) on Oct 2019 levels
UK House Price Index (HPI) Scotland level private new build sales transactions from 2019 and 2020

Contact

Email: housingstatistics@gov.scot