5. Affordable Housing Supply
Affordable Housing Supply Programme statistics reflect the broader supply of affordable homes (i.e. for social rent, affordable rent and affordable home ownership) and include off the shelf purchases and rehabilitations as well as new builds. Statistics are available up to the end of June 2020.
Quarterly affordable housing supply statistics are used to inform the Scottish Government target to deliver 50,000 affordable homes, including 35,000 homes for social rent, over the period 2016/17 to 2020/21, and reflect the number of affordable homes delivered that have received some form of government support through loans, grant or guarantees.
Approvals, starts and completions are all measured for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme. Approval is the point at which funding is granted. Starts are recorded when an on-site presence is established to progress site work. Completion measures when the units are delivered and ready for occupation.
Social Rent includes Housing Association Rent, Council House Rent as well as Home Owner Support Fund Rent.
Affordable Rent includes Mid-Market Rent (MMR), National Housing Trust (NHT) Rent as well as other programmes such as the Empty Homes Loan Fund (EHLF) and Rural Homes for Rent (RHfR).
Affordable Home Ownership includes Open Market Shared Equity (OMSE), New Supply Shared Equity (NSSE), Shared Ownership (LCHO) as well as other programmes such as Home Owner Support Fund Shared Equity.
Latest figures to end June 2020
Affordable housing supply activity in the most recent period up to the end of June 2020 has been impacted by the introduction of measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) from mid-March 2020 onwards, in which non-essential construction activity stopped, and home buyers were advised to delay moving to a new home where possible, until the lockdown restrictions began to ease towards the end of June 2020.
This has lowered the total amount of activity recorded for the most recent two quarters, January to March 2020 and April to June 2020, compared to what would otherwise have been the case, with year to date totals to end June 2020 also being affected. The elements of the affordable housing programme relating to new build starts and completion activity are most likely to have been affected, with non-construction related activity such as approvals likely to have been affected to a slightly lesser degree.
Chart 10a and the Summary Table both illustrate this effect, with only 197 affordable housing completions being recorded in the most recent quarter April to June 2020, a decrease of 84%, or 1,058 homes, when compared to the equivalent quarter in the previous year. This brings the total for the year to end June 2020 to 8,228, down 11% (1,055 homes) on the 9,283 completions in the previous year, but an increase of 17% on the 7,021 homes delivered in the year to June 2016 (see Chart 10b for annual trends).
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2016||1,120||1,814||1,697|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2017||1,518||2,445||1,619|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2018||1,773||2,492||1,540|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2019||1,483||2,135||1,255|
|Quarter Apr to Jun 2020||873||791||197|
|Change over latest year||-610||-1,344||-1,058|
|Change (%) over latest year||-41%||-63%||-84%|
|Year to Jun 2016||8,141||8,178||7,021|
|Year to Jun 2017||10,674||9,939||7,281|
|Year to Jun 2018||11,932||10,616||8,499|
|Year to Jun 2019||10,840||10,515||9,283|
|Year to Jun 2020||12,276||10,701||8,228|
|Change over latest year||+1,436||+186||-1,055|
|Change (%) over latest year||+13%||+2%||-11%|
The number of affordable housing approvals and starts has also been affected by the lockdown measures, with 873 homes being approved and 791 homes being started in the latest quarterly period to end June 2020, levels which are 41% and 63% below equivalent quarterly levels in the previous year.
Despite these drops in the latest quarter, the numbers of homes approved and started have both increased on an annual basis. In the year to end June 2020, 12,276 affordable homes were approved, an increase of 1,436 homes (13%) on the previous year, and 51% more (4,135 homes) than the year to end June 2016. Over the same period, there were 10,701 homes started, an increase of 186 homes (2%) on the previous year and 2,523 homes (31%) more than the same period in 2016.
Chart 11 shows that total affordable housing supply programme approvals increased by 13% between 2019 and 2020 (years to end June). In the latest year 2020, social rent approvals accounted for 78% of all approvals, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership both making up 11% and 10% of the remaining total respectively.
In the year to end June 2020, there were 9,614 homes approved for social rent, 22% (1,764 homes) more than the same period in 2019. There were 1,411 approvals for affordable rent, 22% (255 homes) more than the same period in 2019. 1,251 homes were approved for affordable home ownership in the year to end March 2020, 32% less (583 homes) than the previous year.
Chart 12 illustrates that total affordable housing supply programme starts increased by 2% between 2019 and 2020 (years to end June). In the latest year, social rent starts accounted for 73% of all starts, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 17% and 10% of the total, respectively.
In the year to end June 2020, there were 7,833 starts for social rent, 7% more (502 homes) than the previous year. There were 1,778 homes started for affordable rent in the year to end June 2020, 55% more (628 homes) than the same period in 2019. In the year to end June 2020, 1,090 homes were started for affordable home ownership, 46% (944 homes) less than in the previous year.
Chart 13 shows that total affordable housing supply programme completions decreased by 11% between 2019 and 2020 (years to end June). In the latest year, social rent completions accounted for 76% of all completions, with affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 10% and 14% of the total, respectively.
In the year to end June 2020, there were 6,260 homes completed for social rent, 3% (215 homes) less than the previous year. There were 815 affordable rent homes completed in the year to end June 2020, 27% less (306 homes) than in 2019. A total of 1,153 homes were completed for affordable home ownership in the year to end June 2020, 32% (534 homes) less than in 2019.
Comparison with the rest of the UK from 2007/08 to 2018/19
This section compares how the level of affordable housing supply per head of population varies between Scotland and other UK countries, to help meet user demand for cross country analysis.
Each of the countries of the UK produces their own statistics on affordable housing supply. Whilst there are some differences in the detail of affordable housing definitions and products used by each country, some comparisons can be made on how affordable housing supply varies per head of population.
Chart 14 below illustrates how the figures per 10,000 population have varied across the 2007/08 to 2018/19 period.
Between 2007/08 and 2018/19, the annual average supply of affordable housing per head of population in Scotland has been 13.4 homes per 10,000 population, higher than England (9.5 homes per 10,000 population), Wales (7.6 homes per 10,000 population), and Northern Ireland (10.2 homes per 10,000 population). In 2018/19 the figures were 17.5 homes per 10,000 population in Scotland, 10.2 in England, 8.2 in Wales, and 11.1 in Northern Ireland.
In 2019/20 the rate in Scotland was 17.0. Affordable housing supply figures for England, Wales and Northern Ireland for 2019/20 are not yet available, but will be added to this chart in future publications once these are released.
Note that statistics for England and Wales both include developer-funded Section 106 supply, although for England it is thought that some will be missed as local authorities are not aware of it all. Northern Ireland does not currently have an equivalent mechanism. Data for Scotland include Section 75 units receiving some form of government funding. Data are not available to estimate the number of affordable homes delivered without central government funding in Scotland, but it is thought that the numbers of these homes may be relatively low based on current estimates of the number of funded Affordable and Section 75 homes being delivered.
In addition to the differences in total affordable supply between each country, there are also some differences in the use of different affordable housing products within the mix of overall affordable housing in each country. For example in England in recent years there has been a greater use of affordable / intermediate rent compared to social rent. Therefore when looking over the four years to 2018/19, in England there have been on average 4.6 affordable / intermediate rent homes completed per 10,000 head of population and 1.1 social rented homes completed 10,000 per-head of population. This compares to a rate of 1.8 for affordable rent homes and a rate of 9.3 for social rented homes in Scotland.