- 29 Jul 2020
- Scotland’s GDP is estimated to have fallen by 2.5% in real terms during the first quarter of 2020, unrevised from the first estimate published in June. The equivalent growth rate for the UK as a whole was a fall of 2.2%. These results include the initial direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the beginning of the lockdown period.
- Compared to the same quarter last year, Scotland’s GDP has fallen by 2.6%, revised down from the first estimate of 2.3%. The equivalent UK fall over the year was 1.7%.
Information about this release
This publication provides the latest estimates of GDP in real terms during the January to March period, together with new estimates for the quarter which break down GDP into components of expenditure and income. The coronavirus pandemic has led to a number of challenges in collecting and processing the data to calculate GDP. As a result, estimates for this quarter are subject to more uncertainty than usual and may be more prone to revision over time.
In recent months, the Scottish Government has developed faster monthly estimates of real terms GDP growth. The latest experimental statistics release, for May, is available here. The monthly GDP estimate for June, which will also include a provisional estimate for Quarter 2, is planned for Wednesday 19 August.
About the GDP Quarterly National Accounts
This publication includes the second estimate of onshore GDP growth for 2020 Quarter 1 (January-March), which uses additional data released since the GDP First Estimate published on 17 June. This results in this release are comparable to the UK Quarterly National Accounts for Quarter 1.
This publication also includes routine updates to data for previous quarters. Estimates of GDP growth in real terms have been open for revision back to 2018 Quarter 1, while components of GDP by Income and Expenditure have also been open to revision back to 2017 Quarter 1.
In addition to the second estimate of onshore growth in real terms, the GDP Quarterly National Accounts also includes:
- Total GDP in nominal (cash) terms for the onshore economy and also the wider economy including offshore activities
- Onshore GDP in nominal terms broken down using all three of the output, expenditure and income approaches
- Experimental statistics estimates of the expenditure approach to GDP in real terms
- Household Sector income and expenditure accounts for Scotland, including Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) and the Household Savings Ratio
- Public sector revenues.
The publication includes a short summary of key results from the latest statistics. Full results for all components are available in the downloadable tables below
31 July 2020:Misaligned cells were discovered in Other Summary Table X3 (Experimental real GDP by expenditure). This has been corrected.