- 30 Oct 2019
- Scotland’s GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in real terms during the second quarter of 2019, revised up from the first estimate of a 0.3% fall. The equivalent growth rate for the UK as a whole was a fall of 0.2%.
- Compared to the same quarter last year, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 0.6%, revised down from the first estimate of 0.7%. Equivalent UK growth over the year was 1.3%.
- For 2018, the latest estimate of Scotland’s annual GDP growth is 1.4% compared to 2017. Equivalent annual UK growth was 1.4%.
- As reported in the first estimate published in September, the largest contributions to falling output were in Manufacturing, particularly in industries which had seen large increases at the start of the year linked to stockpiling behaviour.
- Over the latest year, the level of households’ disposable income has increased by 4.2% in current prices (unadjusted for inflation), while consumer spending is estimated to have increased by 0.7%. As a result, the household savings ratio has increased to 5.0 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent at the same point last year. This indicates that whilst consumer spending has slowed, the savings ratio may have begun to recover after falling sharply in 2017 and 2018.
About the GDP Quarterly National Accounts
This publication includes the second estimate of onshore GDP growth for 2019 Quarter 2 (April-June), which uses additional data released since the GDP First Estimate published on 18 September. This release is comparable to the UK Quarterly National Accounts for Quarter 2.
This publication also includes routine updates to data for previous quarters. As a result, all estimates, including GDP growth, have been open for revision back to 2017 Q1.
In addition to the second estimate of onshore growth in real terms, the GDP Quarterly National Accounts also includes:
Total GDP in cash terms for the onshore economy and the wider economy including offshore activities
Onshore GDP in cash terms broken down using all three of the output, expenditure and income approaches
The Index of Manufactured Exports (IME) in real terms
Household Sector income and expenditure accounts for Scotland, including Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) and the Savings Ratio;
Public sector revenues.
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