Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps – up to July to September 2026
Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps
Introduction
Official statistics for fuel poverty in Scotland are produced annually through the Scottish Household Condition Survey (SHCS). However, due to high energy prices, there is interest in how changes to Ofgem energy price caps for gas and electricity have affected the fuel poverty rate in between the annual surveys. To ascertain this, scenario modelling was undertaken using the achieved sample from the 2024 Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS) to model fuel poverty rates under the Ofgem energy price cap.
This modelling has been based on the underlying data from the 2024 SHCS. We have not accounted for any other changes in household income, housing costs or the energy efficiency of dwellings since the 2024 survey. Therefore, this analysis should be seen as a scenario in which fuel prices in 2024 reflected current prices in order to give a broad indication of current fuel poverty rates.
The Ofgem energy price cap sets the maximum unit price per kWh and the maximum daily standing charge energy suppliers can charge consumers for gas and electricity[1]. This varies by energy supply region, payment method and type of electric meter (e.g. standard or economy 7)[2]. Table 1 shows how GB averages of these have varied over time.
|
Period |
Gas unit charge (pence per kWh) |
Gas standing charge (pence per day) |
Electricity unit charge (pence per kWh) |
Electricity standing charge (pence per day) |
|
2019 (weighted average) |
3.9 |
26.4 |
17.9 |
23.3 |
|
2022 (weighted average) |
7.3 |
27.4 |
27.7 |
42.1 |
|
2023 (weighted average) |
8.8 |
29.2 |
30.9 |
53.1 |
|
2024 average |
6.3 |
31.0 |
24.9 |
58.6 |
|
Jan to Mar 2025 |
6.3 |
31.7 |
24.9 |
61.0 |
|
Apr to Jun 2025 |
7.0 |
32.7 |
27.0 |
53.8 |
|
Jul to Sept 2025 |
6.3 |
29.8 |
25.7 |
51.4 |
|
Oct to Dec 2025 |
6.3 |
34.0 |
26.3 |
53.7 |
|
Jan to Mar 2026 |
5.9 |
35.1 |
27.7 |
54.7 |
|
April to June 2026 |
5.7 |
29.1 |
24.7 |
57.2 |
|
Jul to Sept 2026 |
7.3 |
29.0 |
26.1 |
57.2 |
|
% change for latest period (based on unrounded figures) |
27.6% |
-0.2% |
5.8% |
0% |
Note: The weighted average prices for 2022 and 2023 reflect rates paid by households under the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and not the price cap at the time.
Although prices are set at the unit and standing rate level the price cap is communicated to consumers through Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs)[3] [4].
The measurement of fuel poverty includes calculating the amount of energy that households require to heat their homes in order to meet the heating regimes set out in the fuel poverty legislation. Therefore, fuel poverty calculations are impacted by the price of fuels as set by the cap and not the communicated TDCV figure.
[1] Price cap charges are inclusive of all costs associated with energy bills such as the £28 fee levied to recover debt owed to suppliers and not just the cost of energy. For a full list of these charges see Energy price cap | Ofgem
[2] Table 10 in Annex B shows these rates for Northern and Southern Scotland.
[3] TDCV’s are industry standard values for the annual gas and electricity usage of a typical domestic consumer.
[4] Prior to October 2023 the TDCV used was 12,000 KWH gas and 2,900 KWH electricity for the typical dual fuel household. From October 2023 this was reduced and the new TDCV is 11,500 KWH gas and 2,700 KWH electricity for the typical dual fuel household. Decision for Typical Domestic Consumption Values 2023 | Ofgem