Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps – up to July to September 2026

Findings

We estimate that from July to September 2026 there would be around 800,000 fuel poor households in Scotland – 31% of all households. This is an increase of around 110,000 households from estimates for April to June 2026.

Furthermore, from July to September 2026 we estimate that 53% of all fuel poor households would be in extreme fuel poverty. This means that around 420,000 households would be in extreme fuel poverty (16% of all households).

This is an increase of around 100,000 households in extreme fuel poverty compared to estimates for April to June 2026.

These estimates are summarised in the figures below.

Figure 1: Fuel poverty timeseries from October 2022[1].

Figure 2: Extreme Fuel Poverty time series from October 2022

In addition to the national estimates presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2, there will be interest in how fuel poverty rates and levels vary by household tenure.

From July to September 2026, we estimate that 39% of households in the private rented sector would be in fuel poverty and 54% of households in the social rented sector would be in fuel poverty.

This is an increase of around four percentage points for households in the private rented sector and seven percentage point for those in the social sector compared to the April to June 2026 price cap period. From July to September 2026 we estimate that 22% of owner-occupied households would be in fuel poverty, a four percentage point increase compared to April to June 2026 levels.

Tables 2 to 9 in Annex A summarise our estimates of fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty rates and levels by urban/rural classification and household tenure and show how these have changed over time.