Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps – up to July to September 2025
Findings
We estimate that from July to September 2025 there will be around 820,000 fuel poor households in Scotland – 32% of all households. This is a decrease of 40,000 households from estimates for April to June 2025, reflecting a 7% decrease in the price cap based under the new TDCV of £129 a year for the typical household.
Furthermore, from July to September we estimate that 51% of all fuel poor households will be in extreme fuel poverty. This means that around 420,000 households will be in extreme fuel poverty – 17% of all households.
This is a decrease of around 40,000 households in extreme fuel poverty compared to estimates for April to June 2025.
These estimates are summarised in the figures below.
Figure 1: Fuel poverty timeseries from October 2022
Figure 2: Extreme Fuel Poverty time series from October 2022
In addition to the national estimates presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2, there will be interest in how fuel poverty rates and levels vary by household tenure.
From July to September 2025, we estimate that 41% of households in the private rented sector will be in fuel poverty and 58% of households in the social rented sector will be in fuel poverty. This represents a reduction of 2 and 3 percentage points respectively compared to estimates for the April to June 2025 price cap period[1]. From July to September 2025, we estimate that 20% of owner-occupied households will be in fuel poverty, a reduction of around 1 percentage point compared to April to June 2025 levels.
Tables 3 to 11 in Annex A summarise our estimates of fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty rates and levels by urban/rural classification and household tenure and show how these have changed over time.
It is worth noting that although the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) was set at £2,500 from October 2022 to June 2023, during October 2022 to March 2023 all households received the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme.
It should also be observed that from April 2024 all cost of living payments included in the modelling had reached their end[2] and therefore are no longer being added to household income. Annual cost of living payments ending by the end of March 2024, include £900 for households on means tested benefits, £300 for pensioners and £150 for people on disability benefits. This helps explain why fuel poverty levels have remained broadly similar to the 2023 overall rate of 34%, despite a 20% (or £446) drop in the price cap from an average of £2,249 in 2023 to £1,803 in July-Sept 2025 (both based on the old TDCVs).
[1] The differences between these figures and the figures in Table 9 are due to rounding.