Clyde cod licence condition information: EIR release

Information requested

Application of the Precautionary Principle

1. What assessment was undertaken of the risk of serious or irreversible harm to Clyde cod when determining that the revoked Order would be replaced with a voluntary seasonal closure rather than binding protective measures?

2. How did Ministers assess whether the measures adopted are sufficient to prevent further deterioration of a stock acknowledged to be at historically low levels?

3. What consideration was given to introducing interim, mandatory measures to reduce cod bycatch or fishing mortality pending improved scientific certainty?

4. How was the balance struck between environmental duties and socioeconomic considerations, and how was the precautionary principle weighed within that balance?

5. Can Ministers confirm whether a written record exists setting out how “due regard” was given to the precautionary principle in accordance with statutory guidance?

Science Programme and Working Group

We note the establishment of a Working Group comprising fishers, scientists and officials. In order to better understand its remit and role in supporting precautionary management, we would be grateful for clarification on:

6. The full membership of the Working Group, including affiliations and areas of expertise.

7. Whether the Group has been tasked with developing recommendations for cost-effective measures to reduce cod bycatch and fishing mortality, or whether its remit is limited to monitoring and data collection.

8. Whether the Group includes independent academic, conservation, or broader stakeholder representation beyond the fishing industry and officials.

9. When Ministers expect to receive advice from the Group on measures to reduce mortality, and whether that advice will be published.

Request for Recorded Information (Freedom of Information)

In addition, under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002, we request copies of:

10. Any briefing papers, ministerial submissions, internal assessments, or analysis prepared between 1 January 2026 and the present which consider the application of the precautionary principle to management of Clyde cod.

11. Any documentation recording how Ministers had “due regard” to the guiding principles on the environment, including the precautionary principle, in determining the alternative package of measures.

12. Any risk assessments or modelling undertaken evaluating expected fishing mortality or bycatch levels under the voluntary seasonal closure compared with the revoked Order.

13. The terms of reference, remit, and minutes (where available) of the Clyde Cod Working Group.

We make this request in order to better understand how the Scottish Government has discharged its statutory environmental duties in circumstances of acknowledged stock depletion.

Response

As the information you have requested is ‘environmental information’ for the purposes of the Environmental Information (Scotland) Regulations 2004 (EIRs), we are required to deal with your request under those Regulations. We are applying the exemption at section 39(2) of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002 (FOISA), so that we do not also have to deal with your request under FOISA.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption, because there is no public interest in dealing with the same request under two different regimes. This is essentially a technical point and has no material effect on the outcome of your request.

Question 1.

The Sea Fish (Prohibition on Fishing) (Firth of Clyde) Order 2026 (SSI 2026/10) had the following effects:

• It retained a seasonal closure, applying to all gear types, to protect spawning cod.
• It introduced access restrictions across the wider Firth of Clyde, permitting entry only to vessels with a valid historic track record from 2023 to 2025, or to those undertaking authorised scientific work.

These measures were intended to support the Scientific Programme, prevent new or displaced fishing effort from undermining recovery, and help reduce cod mortality.

On 11 February 2026, the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee (RAIC) agreed to recommend to the Scottish Parliament that the Sea Fish (Prohibition on Fishing) (Firth of Clyde) Order 2026 be annulled (rural-affairs-and-islands-committee-11-february-2026). RAIC raised concerns in relation to the evidence base demonstrating the impact of disturbance on spawning cod, as well as the overall effectiveness of the closure given the continued lack of stock recovery.

However, the Scottish Government considers the seasonal closure to be a precautionary and proportionate measure, given its expected benefits in reducing mortality, bycatch, and disturbance.

Following the decision of RAIC, the Scottish Government introduced a combined package of measures - an administrative licence condition, a voluntary measure and a Targeted Scientific Programme - to protect cod in the Clyde

The licence condition – which is a new and binding measure - restricts access to fish in the Firth of Clyde to those with a recent track record of doing so, and was assessed as being important to ensuring that new or displaced fishing effort cannot enter the area and undermine stock recovery and reducing the risk of increased cod mortality. The licence condition reads as follows:

“All UK licenced fishing vessels are prohibited from fishing in the Firth of Clyde (all species - sea and shell fish) unless they have landed any recorded quantity of sea or shell fish from that area on at least one occasion between 1 January 2023 and 31 December 2025.

Firth of Clyde being the area enclosed to the landward side of coordinates:

• 55° 00.000’ north latitude and 005° 10.120’ west longitude,
• 55° 00.000’ north latitude and 005° 21.000’ west longitude,
• 55° 17.962’ north latitude and 005° 47.914’ west longitude.

Where a vessel is operating under the authority of the Scottish Ministers for the purpose of scientific investigation, an exemption may be granted by the Scottish Ministers.”

In relation to the voluntary seasonal closure, our assessment was that it is a precautionary and proportionate measure, noting its expected effect in reducing mortality, bycatch and disturbance, even when delivered on a voluntary basis. Further, our assessment was that following engagement with the fishing industry, a good level of compliance was anticipated but that we would keep the effectiveness of the voluntary closure under review.

We will consider mandating the closure through licence conditions if necessary. However, our intelligence to date is that the voluntary closure is being respected.

Question 2.

Scottish Ministers assessed the sufficiency of the 2026 Clyde cod measures by considering the best available scientific evidence, the limitations within that evidence, and the combined effect of the management actions introduced.

Recent assessment work by the University of Strathclyde provides a clear picture of long-term decline, showing that spawning stock biomass fell from around 1,000 tonnes in the mid-1980s to approximately 20 tonnes by 2019, alongside elevated fishing mortality. The work also highlights the species’ potential for recovery. While stock recruitment remains poor, data up to 2019 shows that modest increases in the SSB have been observed.

However, Ministers consider that the modelling work has a number of limitations listed below but acknowledge that these uncertainties do not alter the broad conclusions about stock status as of 2019. Its current limitations include:

• incomplete bycatch data across all fleet segments;
• gaps in historical observer information; and
• the absence of post 2019 data.

The post-2019 management changes are considered significant, including the removal of exemptions during the spawning closure and the introduction of 300 mm square-mesh panels. In addition, there has been a reduction in the number of vessels—particularly trawl vessels—operating in the Clyde since 2019.

Updating the assessment — and addressing the gaps in historical and bycatch data — forms a core element of Year 1 of the Targeted Scientific Programme (TSP).

In evaluating the 2026 measures, Ministers considered how to prevent further deterioration of a stock already at low levels while balancing wider socio-economic and environmental obligations.

The access restriction was judged essential to prevent new or displaced fishing effort from undermining recovery and to help reduce cod mortality across the wider Firth of Clyde, while the voluntary seasonal closure was considered a continuation of a precautionary and proportionate measure expected to reduce disturbance and mortality during the spawning period. The TSP was viewed as vital to ensuring management is evidence-based and adaptive, particularly in relation to key uncertainties around bycatch levels across all fleet sectors.

Taken together, Ministers concluded that the overall package — the binding access restriction, the voluntary seasonal closure, and the TSP — provides immediate protection to prevent further deterioration of the stock. The measures were considered capable of contributing meaningfully to stock recovery while addressing critical evidence gaps, especially those relating to bycatch across different gear types, thereby supporting the development of a clear and effective long-term management solution. The package also embeds flexibility to strengthen protections as new information emerges through the TSP.

Question 3.

Following the revocation of SSI 2026/10 the Scottish Government considered both mandatory and voluntary approaches capable of trying to reduce fishing mortality in the interim, pending improved scientific certainty. Please see the document being released under Question 12 of this EIR which shows that consideration was given to:

• Bringing forward an alternative SSI;
• Introducing mandatory licence conditions;
• Implementing voluntary measures; or
• Using a combination of these tools.

In relation to bycatch, the Scottish Government’s position is that we cannot yet estimate gear-specific fishing mortality with confidence.

Question 4.

Ministers balanced environmental duties with socioeconomic considerations by assessing the low status of Clyde cod stock alongside the practical implications for the fishing sector. They recognised strong evidence of long-term stock decline and high fishing mortality, while also noting uncertainties in the current assessment model — such as incomplete bycatch data and the absence of post-2019 information — but determined that a precautionary approach required timely action. In addition, a full Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment had been published alongside SSI 2026/10.

Ministers adopted a balanced package comprising a targeted licence condition, a voluntary seasonal closure, and a dedicated scientific programme. This combination is designed to support the sustainable recovery of Clyde cod while maintaining fairness for coastal fishing communities. Limiting access to vessels with an established track record helps protect those most economically dependent on the Clyde, avoiding disproportionate impacts on vulnerable rural businesses. This approach supports the social wellbeing of Clyde communities by safeguarding the interests of fishers with a long-standing reliance on the area, while the Targeted Scientific Programme addresses key data gaps and enables future refinement of management based on improved evidence.

Question 5.

No formal written record exists specifically setting out how “due regard” was given to the precautionary principle in relation to the alternative package of measures — namely the targeted licence condition, the voluntary seasonal closure, and the Targeted Scientific Programme.

However, the context in which these measures were introduced is relevant. SSI 2026/10 was revoked following the RAIC’s recommendation to the Scottish Parliament that it be annulled. This left an already depleted stock without protective safeguards at a time when scientific advisers continued to highlight long-term concerns about the condition of Clyde cod. In these circumstances, “doing nothing” was not considered a viable option, and protective measures needed to be introduced as quickly as possible.

Although no standalone written record exists, the policy development process demonstrates that consideration of environmental obligations, including a precautionary approach was embedded in decision-making.

The alternative package of measures was implemented rapidly to ensure immediate protection, while the inclusion of the Targeted Scientific Programme ensures that management is not static. Instead, it aims to provide a structured pathway for filling key evidence gaps and enables management to adapt as new information becomes available.

Question 6.

A Working Group has been established to support the delivery, coordination, and continuous improvement of the TSP within the Clyde region by bringing together fishers, scientists, and government staff to collect quality information that underpins the TSP.

The working group is focussed on delivering the TSP’s Year 1 priorities, as set out to the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee (Correspondence from Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs Land Reform and Islands 260226 (003).pdf):

• expanding Q1 and Q4 research-vessel survey coverage;
• monitoring selectivity and bycatch across different gear types;
• improving historical data within the stock-assessment model, including updating it with data to 2025;
• enhancing understanding of spatial and temporal cod distribution, including spawning and juvenile areas.

The group’s membership will be kept under review and include representatives from the Marine Directorate, the Clyde Fishermen’s Association, scientific or technical advisers and other individuals - such as active Clyde fishers or specialists to contribute to those Year 1 priorities as required.

Question 7.

The Group’s priorities for Year 1 are set out above. The Group is expected to generate evidence necessary to inform and support future management decisions, including those relating to reductions in fishing mortality and bycatch across fleet segments.

Please also see this letter (4 February 2026) from the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Land Reform and Islands to the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee, which highlights wider parallel work underway in particular in relation to gear selectivity work (creels and trawl). SSI Sea Fish (Prohibition on Fishing) (Firth of Clyde) Order 2026

Question 8.

The Group will include those necessary to deliver the Year 1 priorities of the Targeted Scientific Programme (as set out above). These priorities focus on addressing key evidence gaps. As such, the Group’s composition is intended to be functional and adaptive, drawing in the expertise – including independent academics - required to support the TSP’s initial work programme.

Question 9.

As set out above, the Group’s immediate focus is on delivering the Year 1 priorities of the Targeted Scientific Programme (TSP), which centre on addressing key evidence gaps. These activities are designed to generate the evidence necessary to inform and support future management decisions rather than provide immediate recommendations on measures to reduce mortality. Please also note the parallel workstreams underway referred to in response to Question 7.

In line with the Scottish Government’s established principles of transparency, advice from the Group that informs future management decisions — including advice on measures to reduce mortality — would be expected to be made publicly available in due course, either through publication of TSP outputs or through subsequent policy documentation.

Question 10.

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested. Therefore we are refusing your request under the exception at Regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs. The reasons why that exception applies are explained below.

Under the terms of the exception at Regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested because there are no recorded documents that fall within scope of this request.

However, as set out above, the general policy development process demonstrates that consideration of environmental obligations, including a precautionary approach was embedded in decision-making.

This exception is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exception. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exception.

While we recognise that there may be some public interest in any briefing papers, ministerial submissions, internal assessments, or analysis which consider the application of the precautionary principle to management of Clyde cod, we cannot provide information which we do not hold.

Question 11.

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested. Therefore we are refusing your request under the exception at Regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs. The reasons why that exception applies are explained below.

Under the terms of the exception at Regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested because no formal written record exists specifically setting out how “due regard” was given to the precautionary principle in relation to the alternative package of measures — namely the targeted licence condition, the voluntary seasonal closure, and the Targeted Scientific Programme.

This exception is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exception. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exception.

While we recognise that there may be some public interest in any risk assessments or modelling undertaken evaluating expected fishing mortality or bycatch levels under the voluntary seasonal closure compared with the revoked Order, we cannot provide information which we do not hold.

However, I have provided you with some information that you may find helpful below.

The context in which these measures were introduced is relevant. SSI 2026/10 was revoked following the RAIC’s recommendation to the Scottish Parliament that it be annulled. This left an already depleted stock without protective safeguards at a time when scientific advisers continued to highlight long-term concerns about the condition of Clyde cod. In these circumstances, “doing nothing” was not considered a viable option, and protective measures needed to be introduced as quickly as possible.

Although no standalone written record exists, the policy development process demonstrates that consideration of environmental obligations, including a precautionary approach was embedded in decision-making.

The alternative package of measures was implemented rapidly to ensure immediate protection, while the inclusion of the Targeted Scientific Programme ensures that management is not static. Instead, it aims to provide a structured pathway for filling key evidence gaps and enables management to adapt as new information becomes available.

Question 12.

I have included copies of the information you have requested below in Annex B.

On reviewing materials within the scope of your request, exceptions have been applied in line with the EIRs. These exceptions applied can be found in Annex A.

Question 13.

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested. Therefore we are refusing your request under the exception at Regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs. The reasons why that exception applies are explained below.

Under the terms of the exception at Regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested because there are no terms of reference or minutes available.

In terms of remit, the group is focussed on delivering Year 1 priorities as set out above.

While we recognise that there may be some public interest in the terms of reference, remit, and minutes of the Clyde Cod Working Group, we cannot provide information which we do not hold.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

EIR 202600509432 - Information Released - Annex A and Annex B

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