Scottish Government estimate of the UK Treasury's revenue from the Energy (Oil and Gas): EIR release

Information requested

The Scottish Government to disclose its estimate of the UK Treasury's revenue from the Energy (Oil and Gas) Profits Levy, commonly known as the Windfall Tax. 

Figures from each of the years of the operation of this tax, as well as internal assessment figures used with the Scottish Government when discussion this tax, which could be found in briefings on the impact of the tax and potential revenue that would flow to Scotland from its collection by the UK Treasury.

Response

As the information you have requested is ‘environmental information’ for the purposes of the Environmental Information (Scotland) Regulations 2004 (EIRs), we are required to deal with your request under those Regulations. We are applying the exemption at section 39(2) of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002 (FOISA), so that we do not also have to deal with your request under FOISA.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption, because there is no public interest in dealing with the same request under two different regimes. This is essentially a technical point and has no material effect on the outcome of your request.

Response to your request

The Scottish Government uses the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts for assessments of His Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) revenue from the Energy Profits Levy. These are included in the OBR’s published medium-term forecasts, which are five-year forecasts for the UK economy and public finances and are published twice a year.

The outturn and revenue forecasts are included in the table below, for each year of the Energy Profits Levy’s operation.

Table 1: OBR outturn and forecasts for Energy Profits Levy revenue (£billion)

OBR Economic and  Fiscal Outlook	2021- 22	2022- 23	2023- 24	2024- 25	2025- 26	2026- 27	2027- 28	2028- 29	2029- 30	2030- 31
Nov-22[1]	0*	7.2	10.8	8	6	5.5	4.1
Mar-23[2]	0*	5.1	5.6	4.9	4	3.6	2.7
Nov-23[3]		4.2*	3.6	3.6	3	2.6	1.9	0.4
Mar-24[4]		4.2*	3.1	2.2	2.1	1.9	1.8	1.4
Oct-24[5]			2.8*	2.9	2.6	2.2	1.8	1.8	1.3
Mar-25[6]			3.1*	2.7	3.2	2.3	1.9	1.7	1.7
Nov-25[7]				2.7*	2.4	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.1	0.2

[1] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook - November 2022 - Office for Budget Responsibility
[2] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2023 - Office for Budget Responsibility
[3] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2023 - Office for Budget Responsibility
[4] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2024 - Office for Budget Responsibility
[5] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2024 - Office for Budget Responsibility
[6] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2025 - Office for Budget Responsibility
[7] Table A.5: Current receipts Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2025 - Office for Budget Responsibility

For historical data, we rely on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC). These can be found in statistical publications including:
Government revenues from UK oil and gas production
Statistics of government revenues from UK oil and gas production - GOV.UK
Public sector finances, UK - Office for National Statistics

Regarding briefings on the impact of the tax and potential revenue that would flow to Scotland from its collection by HMT:

As the Energy Profits Levy is a reserved levy, any revenue raised contributes to UK Government funds and returns to Scotland indirectly through the fiscal framework, via the block grant calculated using the Barnett Formula.

The Barnett formula is an administrative mechanism used by HMT to determine annual changes in the block grant allocated to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, reflecting changes in spending levels allocated to public services in England, England & Wales or Great Britain, as appropriate. The UK Government makes public spending decisions on reserved taxation revenue, and these decisions influence the Barnett calculation.

​​​​​​​Therefore, while we have outturn figures and revenue forecasts for the Energy Profits Levy, this is a taxation measure rather than a spending decision. As a result, the operation of the Barnett Formula means the levy’s revenue does not translate directly into any net change in Scotland’s block grant.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.