Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) queries: FOI release

Information requested

Please provide copies of any forecasts, projections, internal modelling, reports, briefings, or ministerial submissions produced between 1 January 2020 and the present that estimate:

1. The future revenue to Scotland from Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) under current UK tax arrangements.

2. The expected impact on Scotland’s transport budget of declining Fuel Duty and VED receipts, including any references to a “funding gap” or “budget shortfall”

3. Any scenarios or modelling that quantify this shortfall over the next 5, 10, or 15 years.

Please include any correspondence or attachments between Transport Scotland officials and Scottish Government ministers or HM Treasury relating to this issue.

Response

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested. This is because the Scottish Government has not undertaken work on any of the material you have requested and there is therefore nothing to disclose. Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty are entirely reserved to the UK Government and the Scottish Government does not receive a direct 'share' of revenues from these taxes due to how Scotland's funding arrangements operate (which is based on a share of public spending). We have therefore not undertaken forecasts, projections, modelling or suchlike on future revenues from these duties, any expected impact on Scotland's transport budget, or quantification of this over five, ten or fifteen years time.

However, it may be helpful for you to refer to the Government expenditure and revenue Scotland (GERS) figures. The 2024-25 figures have recently published and Table 1.1 sets out qualified estimates of Scotland's notional share of various taxes, including Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty. You can find these figures at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2024-25/

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