Scottish Government economic assessment queries: FOI release

Information requested

1. Any economic growth assessment carried out in relation to the Scottish Government’s 2025-26 Budget and/or Programme for Government 2025-26. This means any assessment conducted by the relevant Scottish Government directorate analysing the impact of the Scottish Government’s budget or programme for government on Scotland’s economic growth. If an assessment was conducted, please also provide any correspondence between Scottish Ministers and the relevant Scottish Government officials discussing this assessment. Please limit any correspondence to between 1 September 2024 and the present date.

2. All correspondence discussing the ‘economic performance gap’ as defined by the Scottish Fiscal Commission involving the First Minister or his special advisers, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, the Deputy First Minister, the Minister for Business and Employment or the Minister for Public Finance. Please provide all correspondence mentioning this term and including any of those named in this request since 1 November 2024.

3. Whether the Scottish Government accepts the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s assessment that there is a £1,058 million pound economic performance gap in 2025-26 and if not provide any analysis it has conducted to contest this claim.

4. Any assessment carried out by the Scottish Government on the success of its National Strategy for Economic Transformation. This means any assessment conducted by the relevant Scottish Government directorate analysing whether any targets or goals set out in the strategy have been met or the economic impact of the strategy including any effect on Scotland’s economic growth. If an assessment was conducted, please also provide any correspondence between Scottish Ministers and the relevant Scottish Government officials discussing this assessment. Please limit any correspondence to between 1 September 2024 and the present date.

5. Whether the National Strategy for Economic Transformation remains Scottish Government policy.

6. Any assessment carried out by the Scottish Government in relation to any of its other policies since 8 May 2024. This means any assessment conducted by the relevant Scottish Government directorate analysing the economic impact of a policy including any effects on Scotland’s economic growth. If an assessment was conducted, please also provide any correspondence between Scottish Ministers and the relevant Scottish Government officials discussing this assessment. Please limit any correspondence to 8 May 2024 and the present date.

7. Any assessment carried out by the Scottish Government in relation to the tax proposals sent to the First Minister by Russell Findlay MSP on 18 November 2024. This means any assessment conducted by the relevant Scottish Government directorate analysing the economic impact of the proposals including any effect on economic growth. If an assessment was conducted, please state who requested that such an assessment be carried out and provide all correspondence since 18 November 2024 related to the tax proposals set out by Russell Findlay MSP involving the First Minister, his special advisers, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, the Deputy First Minister, the Minister for Business and Employment or the Minister for Public Finance.

Response

For points 1 and 7, some of the information you have requested is available and provided in the Annex - a section 38(1) personal data exemption applies to these.

For point 2, a section 30(b) exemption applies (free and frank provision of advice and exchange of views).

For point 3, as the Chair of the SFC Professor Graeme Roy has explained to the Finance and Public Administration Committee: the 'economic performance gap' is a technical measure based on a hypothetical comparison to the rest of the UK. The SFC have written more about the multiple reasons for differences in their May 2025 Economic and Fiscal forecasts report which can be found here: Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2025 | Scottish Fiscal Commission.

For point 4, a section 27 exemption applies (information intended for future publication).

For point 5, whether NSET remains Scottish Government policy: Letter from the Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic.

And for point 6, National Strategy for Economic Transformation: second annual progress report - gov.scot and The Scottish Government Consolidated Accounts for the year ended 31 March 2024 - gov.scot. With regard to these last two points, under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website(s) listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.

More information about why the exemptions apply is provided in the Annex to this letter.

Annex

The exemptions held under section 27(1) refers to information intended for future publication. This exemption applies to some of the information requested because we intend to publish the NSET annual report within the next 12 weeks of the date of your request.

This exemption is subject to the 'public interest test'. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is some public interest in its release and this will be met by our planned publication. In the meantime, there is a greater public interest in taking the time necessary to ensure the information has been properly collated and checked before it is published as planned. Also, we see no public interest in disrupting our programme of work to release the information ahead of the intended publication date.

The exemptions held under section 30(b)(i)(ii) of FOISA refer to the free and frank provision of advice & exchange of views for the purpose of deliberation of policy decisions. This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice & views. These exemptions recognise the need for officials to have a private space within which to provide free and frank advice to Ministers & other officials before the Scottish Government reaches a settled public view. Disclosing the content of the internal Scottish Government advice or exchange of views expressed would substantially inhibit the provision of such advice in the future.

This exemption is subject to the 'public interest test'. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is some public interest in release. However, this is outweighed by the public interest in ensuring official and ministers are able to securely consider free and frank advice and views in order reach a settled public view.

An exemption under section 38(1)(b) of FOISA applies to some of the information you have requested. Section 38(1)(b) applies to the personal data of a third party – it applies to the withholding of information which discloses people's names.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is some public interest in release because of the interest in open and transparent Government. However, this is outweighed by the public interest in disclosing personal information of individuals below SCS level when it is unlikely to enhance public scrutiny of decision making.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202500474127 - Information released - Annex

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