Institute for Fiscal Studies report into income tax rises: FOI release
Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002
Information requested
Further information on Scottish taxpayers following changes to Scottish Income Tax at the 2025-26 Budget, and:
“all documentation held by the Scottish Government, including correspondence sent and received (including internal), minutes/notes from meetings, briefings and analysis, about the IFS report into income tax rises from November 15 2024, between November 1 2024 and December 30 2024”.
Response
I enclose a copy of some of the information you requested below, and attached to this response.
In answer to part one of your query, some of the information you have requested is available from the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) website: https://fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-december-2024/.
In this publication which accompanied the 2025-26 Budget the SFC indicated that less than half of Scottish taxpayers are expected to pay more Income Tax than they would if they lived in the rest of the UK. Paragraph 69 of their report states: “Given the latest policy changes, we estimate that taxpayers in Scotland earning lower than £30,300 will pay less income tax in 2025-26 than they would in the rest of the UK. This compares to our estimate of median Non-Savings, Non-Dividends (NSND) income in Scotland in 2025-26 of £29,750.”
Under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.
While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have some of the additional information you have requested. The SFC have not published information breaking their forecast of taxpayers down into employment/non-employment, and we do not hold the information. This is a formal notice under section 17(1) of FOISA that the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.
In answer to part two of your query, I have attached in scope documents and communications identified through a search of our records. Exemptions under sections s.27(1), s.30(b)(i), s.30(b)(ii), and s.38(1) (b) of FOISA applies to some of the information you have requested.
These exemptions apply as some documents contain free and frank discussions regarding the development of Income Tax policy (.30(b)(i), s.30(b)(ii)), some contain early drafts of lines or policy which were later published (s.27(1)) and some documents contain personal data which must be redacted (s.38(1)(b)).
Exemption s.38(1)(b) relating to the protection of personal data is not subject to the 'public interest test', so we are not required to consider if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption.
Exemptions s.27(1), s.30(b)(i), and s.30(b)(ii) are subject to the 'public interest test'. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. In most cases, we have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is some public interest in release to maintain a transparent and open government. However, this is outweighed by the public interest in protecting the free and frank provision of advice to officials and Ministers in the development of Income Tax policy. In three cases we have found that the public interest in disclosure outweighs the exemption and have partially released the documents, redacting only personal data and early drafts of lines that were later published or used in briefing.
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Contact
Please quote the FOI reference
Central Correspondence Unit
Email: contactus@gov.scot
Phone: 0300 244 4000
The Scottish Government
St Andrew's House
Regent Road
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG