Improving unemployment figures in Scotland correspondence: FOI release

Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002.


Information requested

1. Could you supply all minutes/notes from meetings between the Scottish Government and the New Deal for Business Group from the last three months?

2. Could you supply all documentation held by the Scottish Government, including correspondence sent and received (including internal), minutes/notes from meetings, briefings, about the economic leadership group mentioned here: https://www.insider.co.uk/news/key-ministerial-group-transformeconomy-32770679, from the last six months?

3. Could you supply all documentation held by the Scottish Government, including correspondence sent and received (including internal), minutes/notes from meetings, briefings, analysis, about improving unemployment  figures in Scotland, from the last three months?

Response

The answer to each of your questions is below:

1. The information you have requested is available from Business: New Deal for Business Group - gov.scot. Under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.

2. While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide it as the Scottish Government does not have the information you have asked for. This is because the group has never met. As such, I hereby provide you with formal notice under section 17(1) of FOISA that the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.

You may wish to note that in 2024, we reviewed our approach to the governance of the National Strategy for Economic Transformation (NSET). Taking on board recommendations from the recent Audit Scotland report on NSET, a new Cabinet Sub-Committee on Investment and the Economy (CSC-IE) was established and met for the first time on 10 December 2024 to strengthen ministerial oversight and political leadership of economic delivery and provide strategic decision-making for NSET. In line with Action 66 in the NSET Second Annual Progress Report, the CSC-IE supersedes the need for an Economic Leadership Group, which was never established.

3. As your FOI request was received on the 10/12/2024 and information on improving unemployment figures in Scotland from the last three months, we have interpreted this as referring to information on unemployment numbers and rates for the time period 10/09/2024 to 10/12/2024 inclusive.

Some of the information you have requested is available from the Scottish Government’s Labour Market publications. The Scottish Government produces a range of analysis on labour market trends, including information around unemployment. The Scottish Government’s Labour Market Trends publications include information on unemployment rates for Scotland and numbers of unemployed from ONS’s Labour Force Survey, and contain information on numbers of Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants and claimants of Universal Credit who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed.

The relevant publications published during the period 10th September to 10th December 2024 are set out below:

Labour Market Trends

10 September 2024: Labour Market Trends: September 2024 - gov.scot

15 October 2024: Labour Market Trends: October 2024 - gov.scot

12 November 2024: Labour Market Trends: November 2024 - gov.scot

The Scottish Government’s Labour Markets Insights publications include information on the numbers and duration of those unemployed in Scotland, from the ONS’s Annual Population Survey. The relevant publications published during the period 10th September to 10th December 2024 are set out below:

Labour Market Insights

28 October 2024: Scotland's Labour Market Insights: October 2024 - gov.scot

13 August 2024: Labour Market Trends: August 2024 - gov.scot

25 July 2024: Scotland's Labour Market Insights: July 2024 - gov.scot

The Scottish Government also produces analysis on labour market trends, including around unemployment, in our Economic Briefs and Bulletins. These can be found at:https://www.gov.scot/collections/monthly-economic-briefs/

The specific Economic briefs and bulletins published by the Scottish Government during the period 10th September to 10th December 2024 which contain data on unemployment are set out below:

18 October 2024: Scottish economic insights: October 2024 - gov.scot

12 November 2024: Scottish economic bulletin: November 2024 - gov.scot

4 December 2024: Scottish economic bulletin: December 2024 - gov.scot

The previous version of the Economic Bulletin, published before the period requested, is also relevant to briefings in that period. This is set out below:

5 August 2024: Scottish Economic Bulletin July 2024 - gov.scot

Some of the information you requested is also available in the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts for Scotland publication. The most recent of these was published on 4th December 2024, and is available at: Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2024 |Scottish Fiscal Commission

Under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website(s) listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.

I enclose a copy of the remaining information you requested. This includes information that is not contained in the sources provided in this response. These are provided as annexes to this document.

Labour Market Data Quality Assessment

Both the Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey have been affected in recent years by reduced sample sizes, which have affected the volatility and precision of estimates from those sources.

ONS reinstated reweighted Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates as part of their February 2024 release. These estimates are classed as official statistics in development. ONS have since advised that users should be cautious when interpreting short-term changes and that these should be viewed alongside the wider suite of labour market indicators like Claimant Count data and HMRC PAYE Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.

ONS have also conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of Annual Population Survey estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at UK and headline Scotland level, there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population e.g. minority ethnic groups. This assessment of the APS estimates alongside the fact that APS estimates have not been reweighted to new population estimates has led ONS, in agreement with the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), to temporarily suspend the accreditation of all APS-based outputs.

Given the increased uncertainty in the APS estimates, Scottish Government analysts are conducting their own detailed quality assessment of the APS data used within their publications to ensure their outputs continue to provide the best value and quality data possible for users. Further detail on this is set out in the recent statement by the Chief Statistician, which is available at: Statistics Statement from the Chief Statistician on the Annual Population Survey.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202400444502 - Information Requested - Annex

Contact

Please quote the FOI reference
Central Correspondence Unit
Email: contactus@gov.scot
Phone: 0300 244 4000

The Scottish Government
St Andrew's House
Regent Road
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG

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