COVID-19 vaccine rollout expectations: FOI release

Information requested

1) For each health board area or nationwide, please provide the number of vaccines (consider this to mean the number of individuals being vaccinated rather than doses) the Scottish Government expects to be delivered by July 2021.
1a) Please break this down by age or vulnerability group (as already published in the Government's vaccine plans (e.g. 80 plus, vulnerable 18-60, etc.)
2) For each health board area or nationwide, please provide the number of guaranteed vaccines (consider this to mean the number of individuals guaranteed a vaccine rather than the number of guaranteed doses) already procured by the Scottish Government at the date of this request to be delivered by July 2021.
3) For each health board area or nationwide, please provide the minimum number of vaccines the Scottish Government believes is necessary to deliver for the vaccination programme to successfully suppress the virus?

Response

1) The Scottish Government are unable to confirm the number of individuals who will be vaccinated against COVID-19 nationally as this is entirely dependant on vaccine supply and regulation which are still pending.
1a) Following consultation with UK Chief Medical Officers the Scottish Government have adopted the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommendations on priorities based on the clinical evidence for Covid vaccination published on the 2nd of December 2020 . The recommendation states that vaccinations should be prioritised in this order:

1) Residents in care homes for older adults and their carers
2) All those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3) All those 75 years of age and over
4) All those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
5) All those 65 years of age and over
6) All individuals aged 16 years to 64 years with underlying health conditions
which puts them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality
7) All those 60 years of age and over
8) All those 55 years of age and over
9) All those 50 years of age and over

It is estimated that taken together, these groups represent around 99% of preventable mortality from Covid.

2) Vaccines are being procured by the UK Vaccines Taskforce on a 4 nations basis, and while they have procured 357m of all candidate vaccines, when exactly supplies of these will arrive in Scotland is not yet known and is subject to change. It is hoped that we will have been able to vaccine everyone in the JCVI priority groups by spring 2021 based on current estimates.
3) We are aiming to achieve as high an uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine as is possible however not all vaccines prevent transmission and at this stage we don’t know if the Pfizer vaccine will stop individuals getting Covid-19 or, importantly, stop them from passing it on. However, we do know it will reduce both mortality and morbidity. Full information about the impact of early Covid vaccines, including on whether they could prevent transmission, is not yet available. Until we know more we will not know how high an uptake will be required to suppress the virus. Therefore restrictions will still be needed and it is critical that everyone continues to follow FACTS.

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