Concerning the impact of a COVID-19 second wave on various sectors and economy: FOI release

Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002

Information requested

Any forecasting analysis undertaken by the Scottish Government for a potential second wave of Covid-19 (Coronavirus) in Winter 2020 or in 2021 which:

a) details the overall financial impact of a second wave
b) the potential death and case numbers of a second wave
c) the impact on care homes
d) the impact on schools
e) the impact on hospitality or the tourism industry
f) the impact on local authorities in Scotland.


While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide the information you have requested.

In response to question b), in this instance we are unable to provide the information you have requested because an exemption under Section 29(1)(a) Formulation of Government Policy of FOISA applies to the information. The reasons why these exemptions apply are explained below.

With respect to questions a) and c) to f), this is a formal notice under section 17(1) of FOISA that the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.

Please note that since May the Scottish Government has published a weekly research findings document (modelling the epidemic) which provide modelling outputs on the current epidemic in Scotland as a whole, based on a range of methods. Results of Scottish Government modelling, as well as those of the modelling groups which feed into the SAGE consensus, are provided in these research findings. A short term forecast of the number of cases is also included. An evidence paper was published on 7 Oct by senior Scottish Government clinical advisors: the Chief Medical Officer, the Chief Nursing Officer and the National Clinical Director.

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Please quote the FOI reference
Central Enquiry Unit
Phone: 0300 244 4000

The Scottish Government
St Andrews House
Regent Road

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