Scotland's Place in Europe publication Global Econometric Model: FOI release

FOI reference: FOI/18/00106
Date received: 16 January 2018
Date responded: 13 February 2018

Information requested

The Scottish Government Global Econometric Model used, behind the figures of Table 1, p34 of the paper: SCOTLANDS PLACE IN EUROPE: People, Jobs and Investment.

Response

The first part of your request asked for the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model used. As stated in chapter 2 of the paper "SCOTLANDS PLACE IN EUROPE: People, Jobs and Investment", the Scottish Government General Equilibrium Model (SGGEM) was commissioned from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and is based on an adaptation of their own National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM). Documentation around the broad methodology and the structure of NiGEM – which is the foundation upon which SGGEM is constructed - is available at NIESR's website which can be found here: https://nimodel.niesr.ac.uk/index.php?t=5

The second part of your request asked for further analysis. As set out in Chapter 2 and the Technical Annex of the Scotland's Place in Europe publication, the figures in Table 1 are built up from six separate impacts. The contribution of each individual impact to the total can be found in a published supplementary table which can be found at: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/01/6407/downloads

Details of the analysis applied using the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model, the results in cash terms and the assumptions behind each scenario are laid out in Chapter 2 and the Technical Annex of the paper. Note that the impact in terms of GDP per capita was calculated only for the overall impact, and not for each individual elements. A breakdown of GDP per capita is not available.

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