Export Statistics Scotland: methodology

How do we estimate Scotland’s exports?

In Exports Statistics Scotland (ESS), we provide estimates of the value of Scotland’s international exports and exports to the rest of the UK. These export values are provided for all sectors of the economy from 2008 to 2023, including manufacturing and service sectors but excluding oil and gas. Industry sectors are defined using the Standard Industrial Classification of economic activities (SIC).

The export values are presented in current prices, which means they have not been adjusted for inflation. However, in the most recent publication, estimates of change in real terms which does take inflation into account have also been included. This highlights where changes in export values may be due to price changes rather than changes in quantities. Information on the methodological approach to the inflation adjustment can be found in Adjusting export data for inflation: real terms analysis. The value of exports is measured in pounds (£). Estimates of change over time are in real terms and are presented as percentage change relative to a particular year.

The Scottish Government conducts the Global Connections Survey (GCS), which is one of the main data sources for estimating Scotland’s exports. Additional UK wide official surveys and administrative sources are also used to produce the export figures. 

Scotland’s export value is estimated by collecting information about the sales of businesses in Scotland (i.e. turnover) and determining the proportion of these sales that are exports. This export proportion can then be used to estimate export proportions for similar businesses that we do not have information for, to create an estimated export value for the whole of Scotland. The data sources used and the technical process for estimating the export statistics are described in more detail in the ESS processing section.  

The GCS is the primary source for estimating Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK. There are no other direct sources of information about Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK, because businesses are not legally required to report their accounts at a sub-national level.   

Detailed information relating to Scotland’s exports from 2008 to 2023 can be found in the accompanying Excel tables.