Evaluation of the Adaptation Scotland Programme

3. Theory of Change

This chapter outlines the Theory of Change (ToC) for the Adaptation Scotland Programme for 2024 – 2027 (and beyond). The ToC was refined throughout the evaluation with the final version available in the Evaluation report.

The inputs through to impacts present a picture of how the Adaptation Scotland Programme intends to contribute to achieving its overarching vision of: A resilient and inclusive Scotland that continuously adapts to the changing climate.

The boxes demonstrate how the logic flows from inputs to impacts as part of the Programme. Linkages between the boxes illustrate the causal pathways underpinning the five contribution claims that will be tested as part of this evaluation (see chapter 4).

Assumptions and contextual enablers are presented along the bottom of the ToC. These demonstrate what needed to hold true, beyond the scope or control of the Programme itself, for the logic to move along the ToC. The ToC diagram is presented below (figure 1), followed by a supporting narrative in the remainder of this chapter.

Inputs

The inputs highlighted in the ToC into the Adaptation Scotland Programme are the resources that support the Programme and its implementation.

Funding

The Adaptation Scotland Programme is funded by the Scottish Government, with it being noted during the ToC workshop that there is some flexibility here. This means that the Programme can occasionally draw upon other sources of funding to deliver specific initiatives, although this happens very rarely.

People and skills

The Programme relies on having key people with the relevant skills to deliver the required work. This includes the people and skills from Verture, Scottish Government, and local governments, and also extends to the partners that the Programme works with, as well as consultants with relevant expertise.

Partner capacity and expertise

Further to this, the Programme needs to have partners with the capacity and expertise to be able to contribute to its work. This was thought to be a necessary input into the Programme, as partners such as local authorities would need the capacity as well as the will to implement adaptation practices. Partners were thought to include sub-contractors (e.g. Edinburgh Innovations and Paul Watkiss Associates), and collaborative partners (e.g. Climate Adaptation Network, SSN, Climate Action Hubs, Local Authorities, SOSE, HIE, Scottish Enterprise).

Research and knowledge

Delivery of the Programme was also thought to rely on the input of research and knowledge, provided by organisations such as ClimateXChange or resources such as the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment and shared across Verture, Scottish Government, and partners. The Programme itself also contributes to research and knowledge which is captured under Activities.

Policy and legislative framework

The policy and legislative framework was considered an input to the Programme. In particular, the Programme is set-up to deliver on the requirements from SNAP3 but it was acknowledged that the Programme is delivered within a wider ecosystem of policies and legislation. However, it was noted that the policy landscape could currently be viewed as much as an enabler as an input.

Venues and facilities

More practically, adequate hybrid venues and facilities that people feel comfortable going to, and collaborating within, were considered an input into the Programme. This was thought to be an important resource for the Programme to draw upon.

Activities

The activities of the Programme are the things that happen as part of delivering the Programme. All of the inputs of the Adaptation Scotland Programme were thought to link directly to all of the activities.

The activities of the Programme aligned with the eight delivery clusters of the Programme, with activities falling within each of the clusters.

Cluster 1 - Public sector leadership

• Enable public services to collaborate in effective and inclusive adaptation action.
• Support the social care sector to develop sector-specific guidance and strengthened climate adaptation capabilities.
• Support PSCAN members to take greater ownership of the Network, and shape its future direction.
• Support senior-level stakeholders and decision-makers to embed adaptation action in strategic planning and resource allocation.

Cluster 2 - Community and third sector leadership

• Support communities to adapt to climate change, neighbourhoods to become more resilient and encourage locally-led adaptation.
• Deliver training and capacity building activities for key third sector organisations that work directly with communities.
• Support locally-led adaptation by delivering a collaborative community adaptation learning programme.
• Support the National Network of Climate Action Hubs.
• Support the Scottish Government's public engagement plans, including targeted programme of engagement with groups vulnerable to climate hazards.

Cluster 3 - Private sector leadership:

• Empower leadership across the private sector & develop a private sector adaptation leaders network.
• Support adaptation capacity building by delivering tailored training for business support services.
• Co-develop new, bespoke, 'Climate ready' business tools and resources to promote adaptation action.
• Support businesses to deliver place-based adaptation action.
• Support regional partnerships to engage directly with priority industries and businesses.

Cluster 4 - Knowledge, innovation and research:

• Participate in research and innovation networks, and contributing to and developing new projects addressing specific adaptation gaps in Scotland.
• Collaborate on projects focusing on climate risk, climate information and adaptation finance.
• Inform the development of the Academic Knowledge Exchange Network and supporting Climate Ready Infrastructure Forum.
• Support stakeholders to engage with adaptation academics.
• Work with sub-contractors to deliver capacity building training for regional partnerships on adaptation investment planning.
• Support short-life adaptation task force to develop implementation plans for key actions identified by the AS Programme.

Cluster 5 - Communication and engagement:

• Develop a comprehensive, Programme-wide communication and engagement strategy to ensure that the work of the AS Programme and its stakeholders is shared effectively among key audiences in Scotland.
• Develop new case studies of impact across sectors and on key thematic areas of focus to showcase Scotland’s expertise and inspire action from others.
• Launch new Adaptation.scot website and optimising social media presence to extend reach, influence and impact of the Programme.
• Test the most effective ways to communicate with different audiences, focusing on mobilising active participation in adaptation action.

Cluster 6 - Place-based adaptation through regional collaboration:

• Expand regional adaptation partnerships.
• Support regional adaptation partnerships.
• Develop a route map for extending mature regional partnerships on adaptation to all of Scotland by 2029.

Cluster 7 - Policy support:

• Input responsively and flexibly into the development of the current and future statutory adaptation Programme.
• Embed adaptation across Scottish Government portfolios by inputting into the development of key policies, plans and strategies.
• Share best practice in policy implementation.
• Regularly contribute to SNAP3 annual progress reports and independent assessments by the Climate Change Committee.
• Produce and disseminate briefing or insights papers on key topics relevant to the Programme (incl. on groups most vulnerable to climate change).
• Support Scottish Government and its agencies to coordinate policy development and delivery to ensure effectiveness and efficiency of policy delivery.

Cluster 8 - Programme management

• Reporting, monitoring and learning, risk management, Programme Board engagement, liaison with Scottish Government sponsor team.

Outputs

The outputs of the Programme are the deliverables, or the main things that happen as a result of the Programme’s activity.

Cluster 1 outputs: Public sector leadership

• Number and reach of engagement events with public bodies supported.
• Number of events targeted at senior decision makers within public bodies.
• Targeted promotion of resources for lower maturity sectors, including through existing sectoral events.
• Number and reach of resources developed for/with the public sector.
• Number of public bodies participating in public sector networks.

Cluster 2 outputs: Community and third sector leadership

• Number and reach of community training and learning events.
• Number and reach of resources developed or enhanced for/with communities or third sector.
• Number and reach of events for communities or third sector.
• Number of Climate Action Hubs supported per year.
• Number of engagement activities relating to Scottish Government plans for public engagement.

Cluster 3 outputs: Private sector leadership

• Private sector leaderships network options scoped.
• Co-development of approach with Enterprise Agencies.
• Co-ordination of final network approach, supporting Enterprise Agencies (and any other core partners identified through scoping).
• Number and reach of events and training sessions for enterprises/businesses.
• Number of tools and resources developed for/with the private sector.
• Number of new climate ready business tools and resources launched.

Cluster 4 outputs: Knowledge, innovation and research

• Number of items from Adaptation Scotland projects submitted as part of collaborative projects.
• Number of evidence calls and engagement events promoted across Adaptation Scotland networks and projects.
• Number of times publicly funded institutions with relevant expertise have presented at the Public Sector Climate Adaptation Network (PSCAN).

Cluster 5 outputs: Communication and engagement

• Number of collaborative partners actively engaged with.
• Communication and engagement strategy submitted to Scottish Government.
• Implementation of communication and engagement strategy.
• Optimisation of Adaptation Scotland Programme website.
• Publication of quarterly newsletter.
• Quarterly publication of impact case studies.

Cluster 6 outputs: Place-based adaptation through regional collaboration

• Number of regional adaptation partnerships supported.
• Progression of partnerships through the red, amber and green stages of the routemap.
• Number of tools and resources developed for/with regional adaptation partnerships.

Cluster 7 outputs: Policy support

• Number of instances of stakeholder mapping, workshop design and facilitation, briefing papers, evidence and case studies, implemented to support Scotland's Climate Change Adaptation Plan.
• Number of deliverables provided to Scottish Government policy teams and ministers.
• Number of interviews, case study recommendations and contacts for statutory adaptation programme annual progress reports.

Cluster 8 outputs: Programme management

• Operational plan agreed with Scottish Government.
• Quarterly Programme Board meetings.
• Fulfilment of contract reporting requirements.

Outcomes

The outcomes of the Programme are the short, medium, and long term benefits that the Programme is designed to deliver. In the ToC, these have been split out into short/medium term outcomes and long-term outcomes. However, discussions in the ToC workshops also raised the idea that many of the short-term outcomes are also dependent on some progress having been made towards the medium-term outcomes, and vice versa.

In this regard, the awareness of adaptation is raised by the sharing of good adaptation practice, which leads to increased capacity and knowledge across the public/private sectors and local communities alongside the development of effective adaptation tools. This then leads to more collaboration, with the Programme establishing networks, with leaders across all areas of society becoming more engaged with climate adaptation issues. These leaders will then take on more responsibility and ownership to share knowledge and drive adaptation action, which will in turn lead to further increased awareness, re-starting the cycle again.

As this cycle continues in the short and medium term, the outcomes should strengthen under each category. As a result, longer term outcomes will also start to emerge. In this version of the ToC, all of the short and medium term outcomes link to each of the longer-term outcomes.

The longer-term outcomes in the ToC are as follows:

• Cross sector collaborations are developing approaches that support fair, just and sustainable adaptation.
• Place-based initiatives are driving effective adaptation action across cities, regions and localities, and sharing their learning and resources, guided by and aligned with the interests and needs of communities.
• People are increasingly engaged in sharing learning and shaping adaptation policy and action in Scotland.
• Organisations, people and places are equipped with the knowledge and confidence to help deliver change.
• Scotland has a growing network of leaders from across society who are empowered working together, and using their influence to drive effective adaptation action across sectors and places.
• Individuals, communities, and organisations are developing effective approaches to tackling adaptation challenges across finance, land and climate justice.
• The views of those most vulnerable to climate change are valued and acted upon.

During discussions at the ToC workshops, it was made clear that there is a difficulty in fixing firm timescales to these long-term outcomes being achieved. In part, this was thought to be because the process of adaptation will always be ongoing. Nonetheless, this evaluation will seek to ascertain what progress has been made towards these outcomes.

Impacts

The impacts of the Programme are the contributions that the outcomes of the Programme makes to higher-level goals.

All but one of the long-term outcomes link directly to only one impact. For example, the outcome that “The views of those most vulnerable to climate change are valued and acted upon” would contribute to the higher goal that “Marginalised and vulnerable groups are engaged and empowered, playing a key role in shaping adaptation initiatives and contributing to a Just Transition in Scotland”.

However, the outcome “People are increasingly engaged in shaping adaptation policy and action in Scotland” was considered to lead to two impacts: “Public perception has evolved to recognise the strategic importance of climate adaptation and appreciating the prevention of future costs”, and “The Programme has catalysed a growing appetite for change, creating a ripple effect where increasing numbers of stakeholders and communities become engaged in adaptation activities”.

The impacts identified in the theory of change are as follows:

• Adaptation becomes a normal, expected part of public policy, business planning, and community development across Scotland.
• Scotland's economy has become a wellbeing economy that can adapt to climate shocks and is growing fairly.
• Communities play a full part in making the places where they live attractive and resilient.
• Public perception has evolved to recognise the strategic importance of climate adaptation and appreciating the prevention of future costs.
• The Programme has catalysed a growing appetite for change, creating a ripple effect where increasing numbers of stakeholders and communities become engaged in adaptation activities.
• Adaptation is integrated into other policies across all sectors.
• Marginalised and vulnerable groups are engaged and empowered, ensuring they play a key role in shaping adaptation initiatives, contributing to a Just Transition in Scotland.
• Scotland pioneers and adopts effective approaches to tackling adaptation challenges.

All of these impacts were thought to ultimately be contributing to the vision of the Adaptation Scotland Programme: that a resilient and inclusive Scotland is able to continuously adapt to the changing climate.

Risks and assumptions

In order for the logic of the ToC to hold true, and for the inputs of the Programme to lead to the desired outcomes and impacts, several assumptions have been made:

• Actionability of advice: Communities and businesses can act upon the advice and knowledge shared by the Programme.
• Awareness and reach of Programme: The effectiveness of the Adaptation Scotland Programme relies on the assumption that the right potential users are aware of its existence and that the Programme effectively reaches those in need of support.
• Engagement in activities: There is an assumption that individuals and groups have the desire, time, and flexibility to engage with the Programme.
• Capacity and willingness: It is assumed that organisations and businesses are not only willing but also have the capacity to engage with adaptation initiatives, requiring both interest and resources.
• Relevance of measures: The Programme is measuring the right outputs and outcomes to truly reflect the impact and success of adaptation efforts.
• Support from local structures: For place-based initiatives to succeed, there is an underlying assumption that they can gain access to local authority and community support, enabling integration into decision-making structures.
• Perception of climate change impact: Organisations, businesses and people recognise how climate change impacts their operations.

There are also risks to the Programme achieving its objectives:

• Visibility of success: There is a risk that the successes of the Programme are not visible or recognised, especially when positive impacts, like the prevention of adverse events (e.g., flooding), are unseen.
• Short-termism and political will: The Programme may face challenges with short-termism, where focus is on immediate actions rather than long-term strategies. Political will and potential weariness could affect support and trickle down negatively.
• Funding certainty: Uncertainty related to funding continuity, particularly outside of direct Programme funding, poses a risk if other supportive initiatives, such as climate action hubs, lose funding.
• Staff changes: Changes or departures of key personnel in both partner and delivery organisations could disrupt progress.
• Acceleration of climate impacts: Rapid acceleration of climate impacts may outpace adaptation efforts.
• Collaboration mechanisms: Existing collaboration mechanisms might be insufficient, lacking legislative support or incentives to drive engagement and systematic change.
• Measuring relevant outcomes: There is a risk of relying too heavily on quantitative data, potentially missing qualitative insights. This may result in measuring outputs that do not accurately reflect the benefits or knowledge imparted.
• Inclusivity: The risk that vulnerable or key groups may be overlooked if the Programme is not sufficiently integrated into broader systems or if lines of communication fail.
• Legislative support: Absence of robust legislation to incentivise and enforce private sector changes could be a barrier to achieving comprehensive adaptation outcomes.
• Perception of climate change impact: There is a risk if the implications and severity of climate impacts are not fully understood by organisations, businesses and people.