Information

Postal delivery pricing: econometric analysis

In November 2018, the Scottish Government launched the Fairer Deliveries For All: An Action Plan which listed eight key actions to tackle the unfair and discriminatory parcel delivery charges faced by communities in remote and rural Scotland. This report is in response to action points 1 and 2.


Annex D: Detailed Estimation Results

Annex Table D1: Regression results for postal operator delivery prices [61]
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Delivery price Delivery price Delivery price Delivery price
Population density -0.01***
(-7.49)
  -0.01***
(16.85)
-0.00***
(-3.39)
Door-to-door delivery 0.09***
(17.45)
0.09***
(18.54)
0.09***
(17.52)
0.09***
(18.06)
Next-day delivery 0.16***
(31.73)
0.15***
(33.11)
0.16***
(31.77)
0.16***
(32.28)
Accessible Rural (UR3) -0.02**
(-2.68)
     
Remote Rural (UR3) 0.11***
(12.02)
     
Large parcels 1.59***
(264.58)
1.59***
(276.66)
1.59***
(264.86)
1.59***
(267.79)
Medium parcels 0.65***
(136.34)
0.65***
(142.20)
0.65***
(136.50)
0.65***
(138.04)
Other urban areas (UR8)   0.00
(0.78)
   
Accessible small towns (UR8)   0.01
(1.71)
   
Remote small towns (UR8)   0.05***
(3.40)
   
Very remote small towns (UR8)   0.23***
(12.95)
   
Accessible rural (UR8)   0.02**
(2.82)
   
Remote rural (UR8)   0.09***
(10.42)
   
Very remote rural (UR8)   0.23***
(30.11)
   
Island     0.18***
(17.97)
 
Eastern Scotland       0.01**
(2.83)
Highlands and Islands       0.21***
(28.46)
North Eastern Scotland       0.06***
(7.70)
Constant 2.22***
(363.44)
2.18***
(380.18)
2.23***
(439.00)
2.18***
(367.96)
Observations 24,364 26,468 24,364 24,364
R2 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85

Notes: t-statistics in parentheses. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Company dummies included

Annex Table D2: Regression results for delivery companies and delivery prices, including council areas


(1) (2) 
Delivery price Delivery price
Door-to-door delivery 0.09***
(18.11)
0.09***
(18.96)
Next-day delivery 0.15***
(32.23)
0.155***
(33.57)
Population Density -0.00*
(-2.12)
 
Other urban areas (UR8)   -0.00
(-0.14)
Accessible small towns (UR8)   0.01
(0.57)
Remote small towns (UR8)   -0.00
(-0.09)
Very remote small towns (UR8)   0.05*
(2.01)
Accessible rural (UR8)   0.00
(-0.30)
Remote rural (UR8)   0.01
(0.99)
Very remote rural (UR8)   0.06***
(3.93)
Aberdeen City 0.07***
(5.31)
0.07***
(5.44)
Aberdeenshire 0.06***
(5.16)
0.07***
(4.81)
Angus 0.04**
(2.80)
0.06***
(3.42)
Argyll and Bute 0.21**
(15.38)
0.19***
(10.92)
City of Edinburgh 0.03**
(3.24)
0.03***
(3.52)
Clackmannanshire -0.01
(-0.23)
0.00
(-0.04)
Dumfries and Galloway 0.04**
(2.82)
0.05**
(3.09)
Dundee City 0.03
(1.76)
0.03*
(2.19)
East Ayrshire -0.01
(-0.54)
0.00
(-0.01)
East Dunbartonshire -0.00
(-0.25)
0.00
(0.01)
East Lothian 0.05**
(2.79)
0.05**
(2.98)
East Renfrewshire -0.00
(-0.21)
-0.00
(-0.04)
Falkirk 0.00
(0.07)
0.01
(0.36)
Fife -0.00
(-0.36)
0.00
(0.17)
Highland 0.22***
(17.94)
0.20***
(13.24)
Inverclyde -0.00
(-0.15)
0.00
(0.02)
Midlothian 0.03
(1.81)
0.04
(1.96)
Moray 0.15***
(8.96)
0.16***
(8.62)
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0.27***
(11.73)
0.23***
(8.83)
North Ayrshire 0.01
(0.52)
0.01
(0.60)
North Lanarkshire -0.00
(-0.25)
0.00
(0.01)
Orkney Islands 0.25***
(6.33)
0.22***
(5.67)
Perth and Kinross -0.01
(-0.81)
-0.01
(-0.37)
Renfrewshire 0.00
(0.23)
0.01
(0.52)
Scottish Borders -0.00
(-0.18)
0.01
(0.50)
Shetland Islands 0.30***
(7.63)
0.26***
(6.99)
South Ayrshire -0.01
(-0.37)
0.00
(0.02)
South Lanarkshire 0.00
(-0.35)
0.00
(0.07)
Stirling 0.04*
(2.47)
0.05*
(2.57)
West Dunbartonshire -0.00
(-0.19)
0.00
(0.06)
West Lothian 0.03*
(2.27)
0.04*
(2.51)
Large parcels 1.59***
(268.11)
1.59***
(279.08)
Medium parcels 0.65***
(138.21)
0.65***
(143.47)
Constant 2.17***
(239.97)
2.16***
(289.50)
Observations 24,364 26,468
Adjusted R2 0.85 0.85

Notes: t-statistics in parentheses. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Company dummies included

Annex Table D3: Regression results for online retailers and probability of home delivery availability [62]

(1) (2) (3) (4)
Delivery probability Delivery probability Delivery probability Delivery probability
Accessible Rural (UR3) -0.03**
(-3.27)
     
Remote Rural (UR3) -0.49***
(-49.33)
     
Two-seater sofa 0.04**
(2.84)
-0.14***
(-10.80)
0.03*
(2.40)
0.02
(1.53)
Three-piece saucepan set -0.17***
(-11.97)
-0.17***
(-13.54)
-0.11***
(-8.96)
-0.11***
(-8.35)
Other urban areas (UR8)   -0.04***
(-4.54)
   
Accessible small towns (UR8)   -0.07***
(-5.23)
   
Remote small towns (UR8)   -0.24***
(-10.37)
   
Very remote small towns (UR8)   -0.66***
(-23.72)
   
Accessible rural (UR8)   -0.08***
(-7.76)
   
Remote rural (UR8)   -0.26***
(-17.78)
   
Very remote rural (UR8)   -0.71***
(-58.97)
   
Population density     0.05***
(33.97)
0.03***
(20.87)
Island     -0.69***
(-46.52)
 
Highlands and Islands       -0.39***
(-33.77)
North Eastern Scotland       -0.03
(-1.94)
South Western Scotland       -0.03***
(-4.16)
Constant 0.99***
(93.88)
1.04***
(96.30)
0.90***
(98.26)
0.96***
(87.52)
Observations 6771 6771 6201 6201
R2 0.33 0.44 0.48 0.41

Notes: t-statistics in parentheses. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Company dummies included

Annex Table D4: Regression results for online retailers and probability of home delivery availability, including council areas

(1)
Delivery probability
Aberdeen City 0.02
(1.00)
Aberdeenshire -0.13***
(-7.21)
Angus -0.06
(-2.25)
Argyll and Bute -0.70***
(-40.64)
City of Edinburgh -0.03*
(-2.13)
Clackmannanshire -0.06
(-1.53)
Dumfries and Galloway -0.37***
(-18.50)
Dundee City -0.00
(-0.03)
East Ayrshire -0.01
(-0.26)
East Dunbartonshire -0.00
(-0.08)
East Lothian -0.14***
(-5.16)
East Renfrewshire -0.03
(-1.03)
Falkirk 0.01
(-0.22)
Fife -0.01
(-0.74)
Highland -0.46***
(-30.11)
Inverclyde -0.04
(-1.15)
Midlothian -0.01
(-0.47)
Moray -0.24***
(-9.09)
Na h-Eileanan Siar -0.94***
(-26.54)
North Ayrshire -0.07**
(-3.27)
North Lanarkshire -0.04*
(-2.23)
Orkney Islands -0.97***
(-16.82)
Perth and Kinross -0.11***
(-4.99)
Renfrewshire -0.04
(-1.93)
Scottish Borders -0.14***
(-6.50)
Shetland Islands -0.99***
(-18.43)
South Ayrshire -0.04
(-1.37)
South Lanarkshire -0.01
(-0.28)
Stirling -0.06*
(-2.40)
West Dunbartonshire -0.01
(-0.23)
West Lothian -0.04
(-1.74)
Two-seater sofa 0.03**
(-2.60)
Three-piece saucepan set -0.17***
(-13.64)
Constant 1.05***
(-78.6)
Observations 6771
Adjusted R2 0.45

Notes: t-statistics in parentheses. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Company dummies included

Contact

Email: ConsumerandCompetition@gov.scot

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