Offshore wind policy statement 2020 update: consultation analysis

2. Appropriateness of Ambition

This section presents an analysis of responses to question one of the consultation:

Does “up to 40GW of new offshore wind by 2035-2040” demonstrate an appropriate level of ambition for the Scottish Government? Please explain your views.

Just over half of the responses (40 – 11 individuals and 29 organisations) felt the proposed ambition was appropriate, while 38 of the responses (25 individuals and 13 organisations) felt it was not appropriate. Two responses did not comment on the appropriateness of the ambition. This demonstrates that organisations were more likely to support an increase of the Scottish Government’s offshore wind ambition, while individuals were less likely to support it.

Ambition is Appropriate

This section explores the themes from the 40 responses (11 individuals and 29 organisations) which noted “up to 40GW of new offshore wind by 2035-2040” was an appropriate level of ambition for offshore wind.

Many responses were supportive of the increased ambition, with some organisational responses noting that it signals the Scottish Government’s long-term commitment to offshore wind and potential economic benefits:

• A few organisational responses welcomed the ambition for its strong signalling to investors.
• Some organisational responses noted that offshore wind development would bring opportunities for Scotland’s workforce and strengthen Scotland’s supply chain and infrastructure.
• Some organisational responses noted that companies require a steady pipeline of projects to enable them to grow and secure sustained investment, skills development, and jobs across the offshore wind lifecycle.
• A few responses from one organisation and two individuals noted that the gigawatt ambition should be higher.

Many responses noted the importance of mitigations to ensure Scotland’s community, companies, and environment benefit from an increase in offshore wind, alongside a desire for more detail to be set out on how Scotland as a society may benefit from increased offshore wind capacity. These responses:

• Questioned how increased revenue from offshore wind will be distributed e.g. through local authorities or public wealth funds; the form that the offshore wind benefits in Scotland would take and how it would be distributed – e.g. through an increase in revenue for Scotland or communities, or community benefits.
• Noted the detrimental effects offshore wind construction may have on the environment with regards to marine life and seabirds, as well as coastal erosion and flooding as infrastructure is built out. They expressed a need for the environmental impact to be considered alongside any prospective increases to the ambition.

Many responses queried how an increased ambition would be delivered:

• Many responses raised questions on infrastructure challenges such as grid connections, planning and consenting, the financing of projects, curtailment, and addressing the skills shortage.
• Some organisational responses noted the growth of the supply chain would require strategic management to prevent bottlenecks.
• Some organisational responses stressed the need for alignment with wider UK Government policies and that of non-departmental public bodies such as the National Energy System Operator (NESO) to ensure the ambition can be delivered.
• A few organisational responses emphasised the need to ensure that the Scottish Government’s offshore wind ambition is aligned to the UK Government’s net zero targets and those for nature recovery.
• Many organisational responses also noted that without clear and credible plans in place to mitigate against delivery challenges, there was a risk that the ambition would not be met. Across these responses, there was a more generalised view that the ambition alone is insufficient and that a whole systems approach is needed to deliver on this ambition.
• Several individual responses who were otherwise supportive of the ambition suggested that the Scottish Government lacks a coherent plan to deliver its ambition.
• A few responses noted that challenges of upscaling the supply chain and developing infrastructure would also impact the Scottish Government’s ability to achieve the up to 40GW ambition being consulted on. In particular, they referenced the significant investment required in the supply chain and ports to enable this level of offshore wind deployment and questioned whether it was in excess of Scotland’s energy needs.

Finally, many organisational responses questioned how the proposed ambition was articulated:

• Many felt presenting a range of dates and an ambition of “up to” created more ambiguity on timescales to deliver projects. To send a clearer route to market they proposed the term “up to” should be removed and one target year set.
• A few felt the retention of intermediate goals – such as 11GW by 2030 – is important to allow the ambition to be reviewed, and for making it more credible and actionable.

Ambition is not Appropriate

This section explores the themes from the 38 responses (25 individuals and 13 organisations) which suggested that “up to 40GW of new offshore wind by 2035-2040” was not an appropriate level of ambition for offshore wind.

Many responses expressed uncertainty and scepticism concerning how communities and the environment were to benefit from offshore wind developments, with a strong sense that offshore wind, along with the increased ambition, would negatively impact communities, other marine sectors, nature and the environment.

• Many responses – almost exclusively from individuals – expressed concerns that communities would not benefit financially from offshore wind with profits going to overseas companies or to the Scottish Government, and that increased development would negatively impact local communities.
• Many individual and some organisational responses noted that the ambition did not consider the detrimental impacts on the environment, marine life and seabirds.
• A few organisational responses suggested that an increased ambition would have detrimental effects on other marine users and industries.
• Some responses from individuals noted that to achieve the proposed ambition, significant additional infrastructure would be required that may adversely impact local communities.

Many responses questioned the deliverability and credibility of the ambition.

• Many organisational responses, and an individual response expressed doubt at fully delivering the ambition due to wider infrastructure constraints, and the possibility of misalignment with policies and targets across the UK.
• Several individual responses stated that the new ambition is in excess of Scotland’s energy needs and would require significant infrastructure development to achieve.
• Some organisational responses noted setting an ambition without ensuring it can be aligned to the UK Government plans (like the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan) to enable delivery creates a risk of policy misalignment.
• A few responses, mostly from organisations, noted it would be challenging to grow the supply chain and ports infrastructure to the level required to achieve the ambition.
• A few organisational responses thought there was a need to provide specific support to the floating offshore wind sector.