Clyde Seasonal Closure 2026 - business regulatory impact assessment

Costs, impacts and benefits

Quantified costs to businesses

Under all options considered, the policy will maintain our current position and will not reinstate exemptions for Nephrops trawlers, creel vessels, and scallop dredgers, as has been in place since 2021.

Keeping the closure without exemptions will continue costs to the fishing sector as they have faced since 2022. We have estimated the costs of reduced landings of the affected vessels, through comparing potential landings if the exemptions had remained to the actual landings by these vessels in 2022 to 2024. We compare the change in landings of relevant species for Nephrops trawlers and creel vessels to three scenarios:^[1]

• Scenario One: We compare the landings of the affected vessels to the landings of relevant species across Scotland as a whole.
• Scenario Two: We compare the landings of the affected vessels to landings of relevant species across Scotland as a whole by vessels using the same equipment.
• Scenario Three: We compare the landings of the affected vessels to the landings of relevant species in the West of Scotland 6a ICES area.

In all three scenarios the change of landings of the affected vessels during the closure period is compared to the annual change in landings of other vessels throughout Scotland. These growth rates were broadly similar before the removal of the exemptions, and so we assume that they would have remained the same had the exemptions stayed in place.

We then project the landings of affected vessels up to 2024, to estimate the landings that would have happened had the exemptions stayed in place. This is then compared to the actual reported landings, with the difference being the estimated impact of the removal of the exemptions. Finally, we multiply the change in tonnage by the average value per tonne for the affected vessels, to estimate the difference in the total value of landings.

Source: Marine Analytical Unit fisheries data.

On average, the total cost to the fishing sector is estimated to be between £182 thousand and £969 thousand per year. We expect these costs to continue in 2026 and 2027, as a result of the continuation of the removal of the exemptions.

Nephrops trawlers

Source: Marine Analytical Unit fisheries data.

For Nephrops trawlers, the estimates of the effect of removing the exemptions varies substantially between years. In scenarios one and two, the total catch by these vessels in 2023 is greater than it would be if it had followed the change in landings in the rest of Scotland.

This is because of greater activity outside of the ICES rectangle containing the Clyde closure area during the closure period, as these vessels’ total landings sourced from outside that ICES rectangle reached its highest level in 2023. This displacement of activity did not continue into 2024, suggesting that factors such as the increased fuel costs of moving to other areas to fish meant that the displacement of activity was not attractive. This comparison does not hold in scenario three, where the effect of the removal of the exemptions is negative in all three years. Activity of vessels not affected by the Clyde Seasonal Closure in the West of Scotland 6a ICES area was higher than in Scotland as whole, and so relative to these vessels, the ones affected by the removal of the exemptions have had a slower growth in their landings in all years.

The estimated average loss per vessel varies from between £4 to £25 thousand per year. This reduction is between 1 and 10 per cent of Nephrops trawlers’ total landings on average, and between 7 and 49 per cent of the average trawler vessel’s annual profits.^[3]

Creel vessels

Source: Marine Analytical Unit fisheries data.

For creel vessels, the estimates of the effect of removing the exemptions is negative in all years. This may be because creel vessels have been unable to offset the reduced value from the Clyde Seasonal Closure region by being active in other areas. We expect these costs to continue with the removal of exemptions in future years.

The estimated average loss per vessel varies between £4 and £6 thousand per year. This reduction is between 5 and 7 per cent of creel vessels’ total landings, and between 19 and 26 per cent of the average creel vessels’ annual profits.

Costs to the Scottish onshore economy

This estimated reduction in landings will have wider effects throughout Scotland’s economy. This reduction will likely lead to a lower supply for seafood processors, and less services needed by the fishing vessels themselves.

Source: Marine Analytical Unit fisheries data.

To estimate the impact of removing the exemptions on the onshore economy we use the shellfish output multiplier of 1.9 from the Input Output Multiplier Study of the UK and Scottish Fish Catching and Fish Processing Sectors^[4]. This is consistent with the approach taken by Seafish for estimating local economic impact.

Source: Marine Analytical Unit fisheries data and Fraser of Allander Institute shellfish multiplier.

While these results are useful to understand the impacts to the onshore economy, they should be taken as general estimates. The exact relationship between the affected fleet and wider sector is uncertain, as multipliers show an estimated relationship between a single sector and the wider Scottish economy for a particular year. Despite this uncertainty, estimates of multipliers for the fishing sector as a whole have been stable over time.^[5] While a different estimate is possible when an alternative multiplier is used, this would not significantly change the results of our analysis.

Other impacts

The analysis above estimates the impact of the removal of exemptions on the landings of affected vehicles. There are other costs beyond the change in landings for these vessels, which we have not been able to quantify. For vessels, these costs include additional fuel costs through moving the vessel to other areas during the Clyde seasonal closure, and lower productivity in alternative grounds, meaning that more hours of work are needed for the same catch. These additional costs may be part of the reason that some vessels stopped their activities in 2024 and so may have had a more substantial impact on the fishing sector than estimates above suggest.

The preferred option (Option Two) involves capping access by commercial fishing vessels to the entire Firth of Clyde. From February 2026, only vessels with a track record of fishing within the Firth of Clyde will be able to do so. While this does not represent a direct cost to vessels currently active in the Firth of Clyde, it would limit any new vessels from becoming active in that area.

Scottish firms’ international competitiveness

Given the localised nature of the Clyde spawning closure, any policy brought forward is not expected to have a significant impact on the Scottish businesses ability to compete internationally, nor will it affect Scotland’s attractiveness as a destination for global capital investment.

Benefits to business

From the perspective of the fishing industry, the primary benefit of our delivering on the policy intent is to achieve healthy stocks that can be sustainably fished, potentially leading to regeneration and growth in the local fishing sector. In the case of the Clyde Seasonal closure this is at best a long-term aspiration as there is currently no targeted fishery for Cod in the Firth of Clyde and at present this policy is perceived to hamper their access to Nephrops catches. The ability of fishers to target cod once more in the future is not directly quantifiable.

Our use of a TSP set out in Option Two and Three offer some limited mitigation of the negative economic impacts felt by fishers displaced by the seasonal closure. This is because there will be limited opportunities for fishing vessels to carry out survey and sampling work on behalf of the Marine Directorate, where scientific evidence gathering necessitates it. The data generated from this activity will help to inform understanding of the distribution and stock dynamics of cod throughout the Firth of Clyde (including the closure area) and across seasons.

The main benefits of this policy are likely to be environmental, with benefits to fish stocks having potential wider ecosystem implications long-term.

Small business impacts

All fishing vessels affected will be considered small businesses. At consultation some respondents emphasised protecting spawning cod but also stressed the need to minimise socio-economic impacts, particularly on smaller fishing communities. A few respondents described how the removal of exemptions in 2022 resulted in economic hardship being experienced due to the increased operating costs and reduced access to safe fishing grounds.

The SSI will not directly affect quota and will not prevent fishermen catching their quota over the course of the year, although there may be some short-term effects during the closure as a result of displacement. Nearby areas, such as the North Channel and the remainder of the Firth of Clyde will remain open, with the aim of enabling fishermen to work elsewhere.

All proposed options will continue to have an impact on fishing vessels, particularly small creel vessels who may struggle to access alternate grounds, due to their size and range.

Investment

We consider that the proposal will have no measurable effect on making Scotland a more, or less, attractive place for global investment.

Workforce and Fair Work

Since the removal of exemptions for the Clyde Seasonal Closure in 2022, stakeholders have told us that there has been a negative impact on recruitment, retention and satisfaction for the fishing industry. Option one will result in a continuation of these effects, whereas options two and three could modestly redress this as some fishing vessels will be able to access the Clyde seasonal closure to fish when they are working in support of the objectives of the TSP.

The policy itself will not have any direct impact on Fair Work First principles.

Climate change / Circular Economy

The options considered for consultation are unlikely to have a measurable impact on contribution to climate and circular economy targets. There will be no significant impact on recycling of resources.

The aim of the TSP (options 2 and 3) is to deliver environmental benefits, improving the health of fish stocks with potential wider ecosystem and biodiversity implications long-term.

All options will result in an increase in consumption of fuel by fishers displaced to areas further afield during the closed period, which would lead to an increase in carbon emissions. Options two and three could modestly redress this as some fishing vessels will be able to access the Clyde seasonal closure to fish when they are working in support of the objectives of the TSP.

Competition Assessment

Will the measure directly or indirectly limit the number or range of suppliers?

Restrictions on fishing activity in the Clyde (particularly since the 2022 removal of exemptions) have had a socio-economic impact on the approximately 52 vessels who have been present in the area since 2022. Anecdotal evidence from associations who represent the fishing industry state that the cumulative impact of measures such as the Clyde Seasonal Closure, along with future uncertainty over inshore MPAs are causing fishers to leave the industry.

Will the measure affect competition by suppliers?

There is not expected to be an overall negative impact on competition arising from this regulation. Fishing that was previously exempt from the closure accounted for around 1% of the total value and tonnage of Nephrops in Scotland and represented around 5% of the affected fleet’s value between 2017 and 2021.

The policy of maintaining the closure can be expected to displace fishers to other nearby grounds as the quota available would remain the same. While some of this affected tonnage may be displaced, there is expected to be increased competition in the Firth of Clyde space which could result in losses in revenue and productivity for fishing vessels.

Will the measure affect consumers’ ability to engage with the market and make choices that align with their preferences?

There is a risk that the closure may result in some fishers leaving the market due to the increased cost of transit to alternate fishing grounds, the inability to utilise alternate fishing grounds due to weather, or the lower productivity of alternate fishing grounds which could result in a reduced range of suppliers. However, if this occurs it should only impact a small number of suppliers and should not change incentives or prevent the remaining fishers from competing.

The regulation will not lead to a differentiation in costs between new and existing fishermen. The regulation is unlikely to affect the market structure. The measures will apply to all British vessels in the specified areas of Scottish waters. In effect the closure will apply to all vessels because the area falls within territorial waters.

Will the measure affect suppliers’ ability and/or incentive to introduce new technologies, products or business models?

Fishers are already subject to a wide variety of temporal, spatial and technical restrictions and the Firth of Clyde exemplify this. Fishers by their nature, have to regularly alter their business model(s) in response to government policy. Since 2022 in the Firth of Clyde this has included displacement causes by removal of exemptions from the Clyde Seasonal Closure and a new prohibition on landing of berried female lobster. All these changes have a material impact on their business model and the technologies they use.

The domestic Nephrops trawl fleet have been active in developing their own approaches to gear technology to minimise unwanted bycatches of fish.

Consumer Duty

What is the proposal trying to achieve?

The proposal aims to encourage the recovery of Clyde cod, while balancing the Scottish Government’s environmental and socio-economic obligations.

What are the impacts on consumers?

While there may be marginal impacts on consumer access to fresh shellfish as a healthy and nutritious food source, fishers tend to alter their business practices to accommodate fisheries management measures. Therefore, the Clyde closure is not expected to have a significant impact on the price of Nephrops to the market nor on the availability of Nephrops.

The option to maintain no exemptions would continue to affect around 1% of the total value and tonnage of Nephrops landed in Scotland pre-closure change and around 5% of the value caught by the affected fleet in the Clyde area pre-closure change between 2017 and 2021. Given the size of the impact, the large international market for Nephrops and the national supply chain for food products this is not expected to have a significant impact.

However, there could be local price and availability issues where local businesses purchase directly from fishers. While this is a risk it is expected that this could be mitigated in large part by fishing being displaced to nearby areas, with the landings of Nephrops from these alternative sites remaining below pre-covid levels (as is most Nephrops fishing in Scotland) suggesting that there is supply available to meet demand.

What alternative proposals are there than can improve outcomes for consumers and/or reduce harm to consumers?

Consulting on options that best balance Scotland’s environment and socio-economic obligations best minimises potential harm to consumers.