Clyde Seasonal Closure 2026 - business regulatory impact assessment

Background, aims and options

Background to policy issue

Since 2002, an area in the Firth of Clyde has been closed to fishing each year between 14 February and 30 April to protect spawning cod. The closure was implemented by a Scottish Statutory Instrument annually until 2009, and on a biennial basis since.

Between 2002 and 2021 the closure included exemptions for Nephrops trawlers, creel vessels and scallop dredgers, due to the lower numbers of cod they catch. A consultation that ran between June and September 2022 showed support (though opinions were divided between fishers and environmental groups) for continuing the closure without exemptions, to provide the best chance of stock recovery.

Following consideration of the available options, The Sea Fish (Prohibition on Fishing) (Firth of Clyde) Order 2022 was laid in Parliament on 11 January 2022 covering the closure for 2022 and 2023. To offset removal of exemptions, the 2022 Order revised the closure area, making it more targeted and reducing its overall size by 28%, based on improved knowledge of sediment distribution and scientific literature on preferred cod spawning substrate. This was followed by The Sea Fish (Prohibition on Fishing) (Firth of Clyde) Order 2024, laid in January 2024 continuing the closure for 2024 and 2025 without exemptions.

The removal of exemptions has been challenging for small fishing businesses, given the closure area takes up a significant area of the Firth of Clyde and some stakeholders wish to see a return of some or all of the exemptions set out in the Sea Fish (Prohibited Methods of Fishing) (Firth of Clyde) Order 2019.

Despite ongoing management efforts, cod in the Clyde have shown limited signs of recovery. Some stakeholders accept that fish stocks are not static in space and time and there are factors besides fishing (including salinity, water temperature and prey availability) playing a part. Others are deeply concerned about fishing mortality via cod bycatch in the Nephrops trawl fishery and consider that recent research on this impact is sufficient for immediate restrictions on trawl activity.

Regarding wider cod management, an ICES benchmarking exercise in February 2023 designated a single Northern Shelf cod assessment unit made up of three sub-stocks: northwestern, Viking and southern. The northwestern sub-stock covers the Scottish fishing waters of areas 4 and 6.a, including the Clyde region. ICES advice states that there is likely to be a separate cod stock in the Clyde, but the current availability of data is insufficient for it to be treated as such. Recent evidence from ICES suggests wider issues with the health of cod stocks and so our approach to a small area of sea like the Clyde must be proportionate.

Purpose of action and intended effect

Marine Directorate scientific advisors agree that fishing mortality of Clyde cod is at a level that could undermine stock resilience. Bycatch appears to be the main source of fishing mortality on the stock, as there is no longer targeted fishing for whitefish in the Clyde. Natural mortality is difficult to quantify and disentangle from emigration, however, tests do not indicate that emigration is a significant component of natural mortality. Cod reproductive capacity suggests a good chance of recovery if fishing mortality rates are decreased and environmental conditions favourable. As such, our overarching policy intent is to promote recovery of Clyde cod while balancing our environmental obligations and the socio-economic impacts we know fishing businesses are experiencing.

In January 2025 we published a Report on the 2025 Clyde Cod Closure, which also summarised our most recent scientific evidence. In summer we consulted on our future approach to this fishery which included proposals but also sought stakeholders’ views on alternative or complementary measures.

As managers of Scotland’s shared marine resource, our collective goal, guided by our Fisheries Management Strategy is to ensure the long-term health and productivity of marine ecosystems, while supporting the jobs, communities, and industries that rely on them.

Around 80% of Scotland’s approximately 2,000 registered fishing vessels operate in our inshore waters, with different users competing for access. Therefore, it is vital that the Scottish Government develops fit for purpose systems of management that balance our environmental and economic responsibilities in-line with our obligations under the Fisheries Act 2020.

Options

The Clyde Seasonal Closure is a complex issue. While we cannot be sure about the efficacy of the existing closure, we believe retaining it best serves our objectives under the Fisheries Act and that it should be used as a baseline from which to assess measures aimed at realising our policy intent. Option Two (our preferred option) includes a Targeted Scientific Programme (TSP) that will form the basis for more agile and evidenced management in the future. This will include better understanding of the location and distribution of spawning cod and may allow better evidenced decisions regarding the time and location of closures to be made.

Option One

Continue with the same approach as we have maintained since 2023, retaining the closure in the same location and for the same duration as a protective measure.

Option Two

Maintain the existing closure in the same location and for the same duration as a protective measure, carry out a three-year Targeted Scientific Programme (TSP) to improve our evidence base; and apply a cap to fishing activity in the entire Firth of Clyde.

Option Three

Maintain the existing closure in the same location and for the same duration as a protective measure and carry out a three-year TSP to improve our evidence base.

Sectors / Groups affected

All options will primarily affect the fishing industry, either via short-term restrictions to their fishing patterns or by longer-term deleterious effects on the marine environment on which they rely.

All proposed options could have wider implications for fish-processing businesses, either due to reduced supply during the closure period or through longer-term effects on stock sustainability.

Table One shows the number of vessels considered in our analysis. The Marine Directorate collects data on vessels known to be fishing in, or near the Clyde seasonal closure area since the removal of exemptions in 2022. This list was compiled through the analysis of vessel monitoring system (VMS) data alongside input from Coastal Offices derived from logsheets and FISH1 forms. It is updated yearly. We class these fishers as ‘affected vessels’ in our analysis of how the Clyde seasonal closure area impacts businesses.

Between 2017 and 2020 there were up to 70 distinct vessels recorded as fishing in the Clyde seasonal closure area each year. Since the removal of the exemptions in 2022, this has fallen each year, to a total of 49 in 2024. Nephrops trawlers make up the majority of these vessels, with 34 active in 2024, although this number has fallen in every year since the exemptions were removed. The number of creel vessels has been more stable over time, with 15 vessels active in 2021, and the same number active in 2024.

Of the vessels considered, in 2024, 39 were based in Scotland, 8 were based in Northern Ireland, and 2 were based in England. Of the Scottish vessels, 26 were based in the Campbeltown port, and 7 based in Ayr. Every other port with an associated vessel accounted for 3 or fewer.