Clyde Seasonal Closure 2026: consultation analysis and SG response
Analysis of the consultation on the Clyde Seasonal Closure 2026 to 2028 and the Scottish Government response to the consultation.
Consultation
5. Quantitative Findings (Q1-Q6)
5.1 Sentiment Overview and Patterns
Sentiment analysis (Table 5) summarises the overall direction of opinion across Questions 1–6. Responses revealed diverse perspectives with no single dominant position. While some respondents supported maintaining the current seasonal closure, a majority opposed its continuation or potential long-term extension. Views instead clustered around adaptive, evidence-led management rather than fixed or indefinite measures.
Support was strongest for enhanced collaboration and co-produced data collection (Q5), highlighting broad agreement that local knowledge and scientific evidence should jointly inform future management. By contrast, continuation of the closure (Q1) and SSI extension (Q4) attracted the most consistent opposition. High neutrality in Q2 suggests uncertainty about whether current closure boundaries and timing are adequately supported by evidence.
Responses to Question 6, on reverting to pre-2022 closure arrangements, were divided: some saw earlier measures as more workable and predictable, while a slight majority opposed reversion, warning it could undermine recent progress. This reflects ongoing disagreement about management design rather than the shared goal of sustainable recovery.
Together, Table 5 and Appendix 2 provide a comprehensive picture of both sentiment strength and direction. Table 3 (internal consistency thresholds, see Section 3.1) was applied to interpret response patterns. Table 5 presents the detailed percentage breakdown and Appendix 2 provides the full dataset.
5.1.1 Interpretation of Quantitative Patterns
Table 5 highlights a consistent pattern: strong support for collaboration contrasts with opposition to fixed or extended closures.
- Opposition dominated in four of six questions: Q1 – continuation of the closure unchanged, Q3 – carrying out a three-year scientific programme (TSP), Q4 - extending the SSI through 2028; Q6 - reversion to pre-2022 arrangements. In each case, negative sentiment typically exceeded 50%, with strong disagreement driving overall results.
- Opinions on the TSP (Q3) were mixed, with support and opposition nearly balanced, reflecting divergent views on its value and design.
- Collaboration with fishers (Q5) was the only option to attract majority support. Nearly half of respondents endorsed it, including 42% who strongly agreed, signalling broad enthusiasm for co‑designed evidence gathering.
- Neutrality was highest on Q2 (48%), regarding closure timing and location. This reflects uncertainty rather than disengagement, with many respondents calling for updated scientific evidence to validate boundaries, while others argued sufficient data already exists.
Strength of opinion was high overall: in half of all questions, over one-third of responses came from those strongly disagreeing, suggesting conviction rather than weak preference.
Together, these results suggest that respondents broadly support cod protection in principle but differ on how and when seasonal closures should apply. Stakeholders questioned the design and fairness of current management and consistently called for adaptive, transparent, and proportionate approaches informed by robust data and socio‑economic considerations.
The following sections examine each question in detail, integrating quantitative results with respondents’ reasoning and verbatim examples to provide a fuller understanding of the balance of views.
| Questions | Positive (%) | Negative (%) | Neutral (%) | Descriptor | Expanded Interpretation (quantitative + contextual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. The Clyde Seasonal Closure should remain in place for 2026 and 2027 in the same location and during the same time period as in 2025: | 13.6 | 54.5 | 31.8 | Majority opposed | A majority (55%) opposed continuing the closure, including 43% who strongly disagreed, demonstrating firm opposition to maintaining the current system. 14% strongly agreed, while nearly one-third (32%) were neutral, suggesting that while discontent is strong, some respondents are uncertain or conditionally supportive depending on future evidence. Comments show that respondents believe the closure’s current timing and boundaries may misalign with actual spawning areas, leading to perceptions of unfair restriction and limited ecological benefit. Some supported continuation conditionally, if supported by updated data. Several call for re-evaluation. |
| 2. The current timing and location of the Clyde Seasonal Closure are appropriate for protecting spawning cod: | 20.5 | 31.8 | 47.7 | Plurality neutral | Almost half (48%) were neutral, with a third (32%) disagreeing and one in five (21%) agreeing. Several respondents requested ‘fine-scale mapping’ to identify active habitats more accurately, commenting on limited recent evidence. Free-text comments indicated that this neutrality reflects uncertainty rather than indifference, with several respondents expressing doubts about whether the existing closure boundaries align with spawning grounds or timing. |
| 3. What is your opinion of the option to carry out a three-year targeted Scientific Programme (TSP) to improve the evidence base about Clyde cod: | 40.9 | 50.0 | 9.1 | Plurality opposed | Views were divided but leaned negative overall. Half (50%) opposed the TSP, with over one-third (36%) strongly disagreeing, while 41% were positive (including 21% strongly agreeing). Opposition reflected doubts about the programme’s value, while supporters saw it as vital for evidence improvement, provided it involved fishers directly in design and data collection. |
| 4. Should we lay an SSI that continues until the end of the TSP (2028)? | 30.2 | 55.8 | 14.0 | Majority opposed | This question attracted strong opposition: a majority (56%) disagreed, and notably, every negative response came from those who strongly disagreed. 30% were positive (split between strong and moderate agreement). Qualitative comments described a fixed SSI as too rigid and premature in decision-making without new data, undermining flexibility pending further data from the TSP and arguing that closure length should depend on data from the TSP rather than be predetermined. |
| 5. The Scottish Government should work collaboratively with local fishers during the TSP to maximise data collection and improve scientific understanding: | 46.5 | 34.9 | 18.6 | Majority supportive | This question received the most positive sentiment. Almost half (47%) agreed, and 42% strongly agreed, showing strong enthusiasm for genuine co-management, knowledge sharing and recognition of fishers knowledge. Around one-third (35%) disagreed (mostly strongly), illustrating that while collaboration is widely endorsed, some respondents remain sceptical about the government’s follow-through on such commitments. |
| 6. What is your opinion on the Scottish Government returning the Clyde Seasonal Closure to the area, duration and exemptions that were utilised from 2002 until 2022: | 36.4 | 52.3 | 11.4 | Majority opposed | Over half (52%) opposed reverting to old closure arrangements, with 39% strongly disagreeing. About one-third (36%) were supportive (23% strongly agreeing), indicating a divided but cautious view. While some fishers viewed the 2002–2022 regime as familiar and balanced, many respondents considered it regressive and preferred adaptive improvement of current arrangements over reinstating past models. |
Contact
Email: inshore@gov.scot