Scottish climate change adaptation programme 2019-2024: strategic environmental assessment

4 Assessment findings and recommendations

4.1 Introduction and overall themes

4.1.1 This section sets out the likely significant environmental effects that are expected as a result of the draft programme. It brings together the more detailed findings of the assessment work that was undertaken alongside development of the draft programme.

4.1.2 The assessment findings reflect the high-level nature of the programme and focus on the 7 high-level adaptation outcomes and their sub-outcomes. To avoid repetition, the following is considered relevant to all the outcomes.

4.1.3 All outcomes focus on climate change adaptation and hence are likely to have significant positive effects on climatic factors.

4.1.4 All outcomes identify adaptation behaviours. This is the idea that individuals and organisations can alter their behaviour to help increase their resilience to, and reduce the severity of, some of the worst climate change impacts affecting Scotland. Whilst it is recognised that adaptation behaviours vary hugely in scale and scope, they are broadly considered likely to have positive effects on climatic factors. This is because these behaviours, to make informed decisions on how to adapt to climate change, support a greater understanding of climate change and its impacts, as well as providing direct mitigation to it impacts.

4.2 Outcome 1

Outcome 1: Our communities are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe in response to the changing climate.

Sub-outcome 1.1: People in Scotland’s diverse communities are informed, empowered and adapting to climate change.

Sub-outcome 1.2: Scotland’s buildings and places are adaptable to climate change.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to the outcome?

4.2.1 Potential risks to population and human health from flooding and sea level rise, the impacts of extreme weather on the healthcare system, and risks to health from overheating buildings and transport, poor air quality, pathogens, and poor water quality^[44].

4.2.2 There is potential for different communities to be impacted in different ways. For example, some remote rural, coastal communities and deprived areas are recognised as being more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change due to pre-existing inequities and flood disadvantage.

4.2.3 Potential risks to cultural heritage (culturally valued structures and the wider historic environment). There is a need to protect vulnerable cultural heritage assets (including designated and undesignated sites and their settings) from direct climate change impacts such as increased flood risk, hydrological changes, and from extreme weather events as well as from increases in the severity of current threats e.g. soil erosion and vegetation growth. There is also the potential for risks arising from the indirect effects of climate change (such as damage to building fabric as a result of adaptation measures).

What are the likely significant environmental effects of this outcome?

4.2.4 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on population and human health, for example through measures that support safety and community empowerment, including flood management and risk avoidance measures, as well as emergency responses to flooding and disease. Positive effects on cultural heritage and material assets may also occur as a result of building and place adaptation measures.

4.2.5 Future actions to support inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe communities have the potential to result in mixed/uncertain effects on a range of SEA topics. For example there is potential for negative effects from adaptation responses such as flood alleviation measures on cultural heritage assets and/or the wider historic environment. Potential effects are considered likely to be localised. Individual projects would be subject to consideration through the relevant applicable regulatory regimes.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.2.6 Key policies and measures identified to support place based/local adaptation responses to climate change (targeting diverse communities and supporting safe and resilient places) are likely to contribute to addressing the key impacts of climate change.

Opportunities for Enhancement 

4.2.7 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of this outcome a focus could be given to actions which support consideration of differing needs of communities and which seek to protect vulnerable cultural heritage assets. Specifically, a focus could be given to actions that support the differing needs of remote rural, coastal communities and deprived areas that are recognised as being more vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change due to pre-existing inequities and flood disadvantage.

4.2.8 Measures that support adaptation of buildings in response to climate change have the potential to help address existing risks to people from cold temperatures through addressing fuel poverty. This is also relevant to  Outcome 2 below.

4.3 Outcome 2

Outcome 2: The people in Scotland who are most vulnerable to climate change are able to adapt and climate justice is embedded in climate change adaptation policy.

Sub-outcome 2.1: The most vulnerable to climate change in Scotland are informed, empowered and able to adapt to climate change.

Sub-outcome 2.2: Scotland’s health and social care is ready and responding to changing demands as a result of the changing climate.

Sub-outcome 2.3:  Scotland’s people have equal access to high standards of air quality ensuring our population’s health.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to the outcome?

4.3.1 Potential opportunities for population and human health include health benefits to be derived from warmer winters, however more action is needed to manage current risks to people from cold temperatures through addressing fuel poverty. 

4.3.2 The impacts of climate change on people will not be evenly spread across society, and deprived areas are recognised as being more vulnerable to negative impacts due to pre-existing health problems and inequities. Isolated communities are also recognised as being most vulnerable to infrastructure damage from flooding. Adverse impacts on population and human health could include risks to health from increased temperatures, vector borne pathogens, and food-borne disease.

4.3.3 Air pollution can contribute to a number of health problems and climate change may exacerbate these issues and alter current patterns and concentrations of air pollution.

4.3.4 Extreme weather events can affect the ability of the health and social care sector to deliver services due to impact on material assets (infrastructure) as well as increased demand from incidents associated with the events themselves. More research is needed to assess to what extent adaptation action is already underway to manage risks to population and human health from flooding and sea level rise, extreme weather impacts on the health care system, risks to health from overheating buildings, poor air quality and pathogens.

What are the likely significant effects of this outcome?

4.3.5 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on population and human health, air and material assets. A number of measures could also have secondary positive effects on other SEA topics. For example measures that support improving air quality through the decarbonisation of transport are likely to have positive secondary effects on climatic factors.

4.3.6 Future actions that occur to support climate justice have the potential to result in mixed/uncertain effects on a range of SEA topics. For example there is potential for negative effects from adaptation responses such as infrastructure resilience measures. Potential effects are considered likely to be localised. Individual projects would be subject to consideration through the relevant applicable regulatory regimes.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.3.7 Key policy and measures identified to support climate justice are likely to contribute to addressing key impacts of climate change.

Opportunities for Enhancement

4.3.8 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of this outcome a focus could be given to actions which support people living in deprived and isolated areas which may be more vulnerable to negative impacts due to pre-existing health problems and inequalities.

4.4 Outcome 3

Outcome 3: Our inclusive and sustainable economy is flexible, adaptable and responsive to the changing climate.

Sub-outcome 3.1: Scotland’s businesses based on natural resources are informed and adaptable to climate change.

Sub-outcome 3.2: Scotland’s manufacturing, services and wider economy are informed and adaptable to climate change.

Sub-outcome 3.3: Scotland’s economy is innovative and harnesses the opportunities created as a result of climate change.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to this outcome?

4.4.1 Material assets (Businesses) are at risk from climate change impacts including  site flooding, impacts on coastal locations and infrastructure, reduced employee productivity (for example from infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments). Other risks include possible water scarcity, reduced access to capital and disruption to supply chain and distribution networks.

4.4.2 Flooding and extreme weather events which damage material assets and disrupt business operations pose the greatest threat to Scottish businesses now and in the future. Supporting resilient infrastructure (in particular power, fuel supply and ICT) is crucial in enabling businesses to minimise disruption  to their operations from climate change risks.

4.4.3 Risks and opportunities for material assets (businesses) may occur from changes in demand for goods and services.

4.4.4 Some key material assets (agriculture and forestry) are closely linked to climate, and climate change poses both risks and opportunities through changes in agricultural and forestry productivity and land suitability. Examples include potential negative impacts from a warmer climate arising from an increased likelihood of pest infestation, wildfire, invasive species and water scarcity, as well as potential positive effects from greater productivity for some species.

4.4.5 Landscape, biodiversity, and cultural heritage assets and their settings may change as an indirect result of climate change. For example from land use change in support of business adaptation activities.

What are the likely significant environmental effects of this outcome?

4.4.6 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on material assets (businesses and natural resource industries) for example through measures that support business resilience and awareness of climate change risks and opportunities.

4.4.7 Future actions that occur to support an adaptable, flexible and resilient economy have the potential to result in mixed/uncertain effects on a range of SEA topics. For example, there is potential for negative effects from adaptation responses such as business site adaptation measures on landscape and material assets. Potential effects are considered likely to be localised. Individual projects would be subject to consideration through the relevant applicable regulatory regimes.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.4.8 The key policies and measures identified to support a flexible, adaptable and responsive economy are likely to contribute to addressing key impacts of climate change.

Opportunities for Enhancement

4.4.9 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of this outcome a focus could be given to actions which support locations and infrastructure which are recognised as more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change including coastal and isolated locations and power, fuel supply and ICT Infrastructure.

4.5 Outcome 4

Outcome 4: Our society’s supporting systems are resilient to climate change.

Sub-outcome 4.1: The interdependencies of Scotland’s infrastructure assets, systems and sectors are understood, and the risk of cascading failures is managed.

Sub-outcome 4.2: Scotland’s critical national infrastructure, including essential services, is resilient to climate change.

Sub-outcome 4.3: Scotland’s other non-critical infrastructure is adaptable to climate change.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to this outcome?

4.5.1 Impacts on some material assets (infrastructure) have the potential to cascade on to others as part of interdependent networks. Flooding poses the greatest long term risk to infrastructure performance from climate change but the growing risks from heat, water scarcity and slope instability caused by severe weather could be significant.

4.5.2 There may be increased competition for water and water quality and quantity problems could be exacerbated by extreme weather brought on by climate change.

4.5.3 There may be risks to material assets (including transport, digital and energy infrastructure) from extreme weather and changes in climate.

Some material assets including road and rail transport are generally more vulnerable to a changing climate than air and water transport and flooding is anticipated to be the most significant impact on these networks, as well as those arising from extreme weather conditions and landslides. Flooding is expected to increase pressure on healthcare infrastructure, particularly emergency services, with isolated communities being most vulnerable to infrastructure damage. Such impacts could impact on population and human health (e.g. operation disruption and risks to passengers from high temperatures on public transport).

4.5.4 Landscape may change as an indirect result of climate change. For example from land use change in support of adaptation activities such as renewable energy developments.

What are the likely significant environmental effects of this outcome?

4.5.5 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on material assets and population and human health, for example through measures that support resilience of supporting systems and infrastructure interdependencies and improve understanding. Additional benefits to human health are considered likely from measures that facilitate improved energy security. Positive effects on water and air are also likely, for example through measures that support sustainable water management and clean energy.

4.5.6 Future actions to provide more resilient supporting systems have the potential to result in mixed/uncertain effects on a range of SEA topics. For example, there is potential for negative effects on the landscape from adaptation responses such as new renewable energy infrastructure. Potential effects are considered likely to be localised. Individual projects would be subject to consideration through the relevant applicable regulatory regimes.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.5.7 This outcome seeks to improve resilience of our supporting systems and ensure they are adaptable to a changing climate. Measures that seek to improve understanding, including of the interdependencies between systems, and which support resilience and adaptation are likely to contribute to addressing the impacts of climate change.

Opportunities for Enhancement

4.5.8 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of this outcome a focus could be given to supporting systems which may be more vulnerable to the identified negative impacts of climate change. For example, isolated communities, systems at risk from increased flooding, and those at growing risk from heat, water scarcity and slope instability.

4.6 Outcome 5

Outcome 5: Our natural environment is valued, enjoyed, protected and enhanced and has increased resilience to climate change.

Sub-outcome 5.1: Scotland’s biodiversity, ecosystems and landscapes are adaptable to the changing climate.

Sub-outcome 5.2: Scotland’s natural environment and its contribution to wider societal adaptation is valued, enjoyed and maintained.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to this outcome?

4.6.1 Climate change poses risks to Scotland’s soils including increased seasonal aridity and wetness, and risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration. More action is needed to manage these risks. Opportunities to protect a range of environmental assets such as soil through management interventions in peatlands, forests and agricultural soils can be used to help slow or even reverse climatic change.

4.6.2 Some biodiversity assets (species and habitats) could be at risk because of their inability to respond to changing climatic conditions. Opportunities for biodiversity (new species colonisation) could result from changes in climate.

4.6.3 Climate change could contribute to changes in landscape character. For example from changes in land cover and indirectly through influencing some land uses in specific locations.

4.6.4 Warmer winters and increased participation in outdoor activities could result in health benefits for population and human health.

4.6.5 For waters that are already under pressure from nutrient inputs, the higher temperatures predicted as a result of climate change may further stimulate excessive and damaging growth of water plants. The potential increase in extreme rainfall events and flooding may result in more of the soil and nutrients from agricultural land being washed into surface waters and impact on freshwater species and water quality.

What are the likely significant environmental effects on this outcome?

4.6.6 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on all SEA topics including biodiversity, population and human health, air, soil, water, landscape, and cultural heritage. Measures that support ecosystems for example are likely to result in positive effects on a range of SEA topics. 

4.6.7 Future actions that occur to support, value, enjoy, protect and enhance the natural environment have the potential to result in mixed/uncertain effects on a range of SEA topics. For example there is potential for negative effects from adaptation responses to support improved recreation measures on biodiversity, landscapes and cultural heritage assets. Potential effects are considered likely to be localised. Individual projects would be subject to consideration through the relevant applicable regulatory regimes.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.6.8 This outcome seeks to value, enjoy and maintain our natural environment and is likely to contribute to addressing the impacts of climate change.

4.6.9 Notably, the SEA supports the inclusion of measures underneath this outcome that support cross-sector cooperation and opportunities to realise multiple environmental benefits (for example through the continued promotion of the consideration of ecosystems in the decision-making process).

4.7 Outcome 6

Outcome 6: Our coastal and marine environment is valued, enjoyed, protected and enhanced and has increased resilience to climate change.

Sub-outcome 6.1: Scotland’s coastal and marine biodiversity, ecosystems and landscapes are adaptable to a changing climate.

Sub-outcome 6.2: Scotland’s marine and coastal environment and its contribution to wider societal adaption is enjoyed, valued and maintained.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to this outcome?

4.7.1 Some marine biodiversity and cultural heritage assets could be at risk because of their inability to respond to changing climatic conditions (for example, some species could be at risk from extreme weather events including sea level rise and loss of natural flood protection and risks to freshwater habitats from saltwater intrusion)

4.7.2 Risks to cultural heritage in the coastal zone from sea level rise and loss of natural flood protection.

4.7.3 Risks to and opportunities for biodiversity (marine species), material assets (fisheries) and cultural heritage (marine heritage) from ocean acidification and higher water temperatures.

4.7.4 The combined effects of climate change on landscape character are likely to be most obvious in lowland and coastal areas.

What are the likely significant environmental effects of this outcome?

4.7.5 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on some SEA topics including biodiversity, landscape, soil, water (measures that support adaptable ecosystems) and population and human health (measures that support enjoyment, value and maintenance of coastal and marine environments).

4.7.6 Future actions that occur to support the marine and coastal environment have the potential to result in mixed/uncertain effects on a range of SEA topics. For example there is potential for negative effects from adaptation responses such as coastal defence measures on biodiversity and water. Potential effects are considered likely to be localised. Individual projects would be subject to consideration through the relevant applicable regulatory regimes.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.7.7 This outcome seeks to value, enjoy and maintain our coastal and marine environment and is likely to contribute to addressing the impacts of climate change.

4.7.8 Notably the SEA supports the inclusion of measures underneath this outcome that support cross sector cooperation and opportunities to realise multiple environmental benefits (for example through the continued promotion of the consideration of ecosystems in the decision making process).

4.7.9 The SEA also supports the inclusion of a specific marine and coastal outcome as this environment may be more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change including potential risks to landscape character. The outcome is likely to contribute to addressing the key impacts of climate change.

Opportunities for Enhancement

4.7.10 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of this outcome a focus could be given to actions which support measures for marine heritage to adapt to climate change.

4.8 Outcome 7

Outcome 7: Our international networks are adaptable to climate change.

Sub-outcome 7.1: Scotland’s international food supply networks are resilient to the effects of climate change.

Sub-outcome 7.2: Scotland has an internationally open and connected economy which is adaptable to climate change.

Sub-outcome 7.3:  Scotland is active in international governance, helping to manage the potential international instability caused by climate change.

What are the key environmental impacts of climate change relevant to this outcome?

4.8.1 Risks to population and human health from weather related shocks to international food production and trade, imported food safety risks, climate related international human displacement, and to violent conflict overseas.

4.8.2 Risks and opportunities from long term climate related changes to material assets (global food production) and opportunities for changes in international trade routes.

What are the likely significant environmental effects of this outcome?

4.8.3 This outcome is likely to have positive effects on population and human health and material assets through adaptation measures that support food security and international coordination of climate change responses.

Does the outcome address key environmental impacts of climate change?

4.8.4 This outcome is likely to contribute to addressing the key impacts of climate change.

4.8.5 Whilst it is acknowledged that this outcome has an international focus it is not considered that this component of the draft programme is likely to lead to significant effects that would require consideration across transboundary areas. Future actions and proposals will themselves be subject to consideration in accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005.

4.9 Conclusions Mitigation and Enhancement

Conclusions

4.9.1 The draft programme does not itself set out new policies or proposals, but rather provides a high-level framework that draws together existing Scottish Government polices relating to climate change adaptation, and seeks to ensure that they take account of climate change adaptation. Where any future policies and proposals are developed, these will themselves be subject to consideration in accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005.

4.9.2 This assessment concludes that the high-level outcomes based approach is likely to have significant positive effects on climatic factors by drawing together relevant adaptation measures to maximise their impact, captialise upon synergies and address any gaps.

4.9.3 This approach to climate change action can also optimise environmental benefits across the range of SEA topics and positive effects on all other SEA topics (including biodiversity, population and human health, air, soil, water, material assets, cultural heritage and landscape) are considered likely, the effects of which are only likely to be fully realised in the medium to long term.

4.9.4 The potential for effects in combination with other plans, programmes and strategies has also been considered. The draft programme has the potential to positively and cumulatively contribute across a wide range of Scottish Government policy areas within the context in which it sits. Adaptation is captured across the breadth of a range of national plans, policies and programmes and these are recognised under the adaptation framework. Taking into account the high-level nature of the draft programme there is however an inherent degree of uncertainty regarding the environmental impacts that may arise as a result of future actions undertaken to support adaptation outcomes. The assessment also identifies the potential for mixed / uncertain effects arising from future actions at a local level, across the majority of the SEA topics.

Mitigation

4.9.5 Where future actions have the potential to result in uncertain/mixed adverse effects further consideration should be given to opportunities to mitigate any such effects at individual project level. There are existing controls in place through the relevant consenting procedures that can help to address these. These are discussed further in Section 3.12.1.

4.9.6 Six outcomes identify adaptation behaviours. This is the idea that individuals and organisations can alter their behaviour to help increase their resilience to, and reduce the severity of, some of the worst climate change impacts affecting Scotland. Whilst it is recognised that adaptation behaviours vary hugely in scale and scope, they are broadly likely to contribute to positive effects on climatic factors. This is because these behaviours, to make informed decisions on how to adapt to climate change, support a greater understanding of climate change and its impacts (as well as providing direct mitigation to its impacts).

4.9.7 Finally, the SEA findings support outcomes that focus on increased understanding and awareness of climate change adaptation. This is because adaptation strategies will benefit from relevant  research and awareness raising to ensure resources continue to be appropriately directed and to help avoid unintended secondary adverse environmental effects.

Opportunities for Enhancement

4.9.8 The SEA findings also support greater policy alignment of action with wider Scottish Government policy objectives in order to maximise potential benefits from climate change action. Additionally, improved policy integration may provide an opportunity at a strategic level to better understand more complex interactions: for example, the link between climate change and air quality, and interactions between the terrestrial and marine environments.

4.9.9 The SEA findings also support the inclusion of outcomes that support cross sector cooperation and opportunities to realise multiple environmental benefits (for example, Outcomes 5 and 6 which support the continued promotion of the consideration of ecosystems in the decision making process).

4.9.10 The SEA findings support the inclusion of an outcome with a focus on marine and coastal environments as these areas are likely to be more vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change.

4.9.11 The following specific opportunities for enhancement have been identified:

4.9.12 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of Outcome 1, a focus could be given to actions which support consideration of differing needs of communities and which seek to protect vulnerable cultural heritage assets. Specifically, a focus could be given to actions that support the differing needs of remote rural, coastal communities and deprived areas that are recognised as being more vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change due to pre-existing inequities and flood disadvantage.

4.9.13 Measures identified under Outcome 1 that support adaptation of buildings in response to climate change have the potential to help address existing risks to people from cold temperatures through addressing fuel poverty. This is also relevant to Outcome 2 below.

4.9.14 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of Outcome 2, a focus could be given to actions which support people living in deprived and isolated areas which may be more vulnerable to negative impacts due to pre-existing health problems and inequalities.

4.9.15 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of Outcome 3, a focus could be given to actions which support locations and infrastructure which are recognised as more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change including coastal and isolated locations and power, fuel supply and ICT Infrastructure.

4.9.16 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of Outcome 4, a focus could be given to supporting systems which may be more vulnerable to the identified negative impacts of climate change. For example isolated communities, systems at risk from increased flooding, and those at growing risk from heat, water scarcity and slope instability.

4.9.17 To obtain the maximum environmental benefits of Outcome 6, a focus could be given to actions which support measures for marine heritage to adapt to climate change.