A Moment of Challenge: First Minister's speech - 28 January 2026

Thank you for joining me here today.

I want to reflect this afternoon on the fundamental challenge facing Scotland in the light of what Mark Carney has described, accurately I believe, as a rupture in the world order.

I want to do so by rooting our analysis in an understanding of our human reality that is primarily relational – no person is an island, and indeed, beyond its geography, no nation is an island.

In essence, it is about how, in a fast-changing world, we maximize the independence of small- and medium-sized powers by standing together, not by seeking to act alone.

A collective independence, that protects our values, ensures our prosperity, and provides the solid ground upon which we can stand in the face of the flash floods and storms of an emerging new world.

As a guest of the University of Edinburgh, and given the issues I will be addressing today, I can think of no better way to begin than by drawing our attention to a distinction offered by a great son of this university, a great European, and one of the most influential thinkers in the wider Scottish independence movement, Professor Sir Neil MacCormick.

In one of his landmark texts, Beyond the Sovereign State, Sir Neil spoke of the difference between politics and law, between power and order.

“As for politics,” Neil wrote, “I shall follow the late Aneurin Bevan’s dictum that politics is about power”.

More exactly, politics is essentially concerned with the power of decision making in human communities on matters of communal interest or importance, with competition for that power, and with its exercise.

As for law, the essence is not power but normative order. Wherever there is law, there is normative order; wherever there is normative order institutionalised, there is law.”

Law, the set of communal rules upon which we have agreed, places limits on power. That is, of course, the basis for the constitutional order we enjoy here at home.

For eight decades, it has been, also, the basis of the international order, the rules based international order that, although imperfectly, has brought us peace and prosperity.

The reality of power is not denied, but the exercise of power by politicians, even if imperfectly, is controlled.

Today, I will speak both about power and order – and what that means for small and medium-sized nations.

I will do so as the leader of a government that believes in independence in Europe for my nation, and also independence – that is, meaningful strategic autonomy, including in defence, technology and energy - for Europe.

Not so the European Union becomes merely an alternative power bloc in a world where only might is right, but rather as part of an alternative vision of a world sustained and built through partnership - and a partnership of equals, where the smallest sit at the same table as the strongest, and where their voice is heard.

I want to be absolutely clear here. For the sake of our security and our prosperity, Scotland returning as swiftly as possible to membership of the EU must be a core national priority – and should be a shared national purpose.

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Scotland’s power may be small, but our location in the world is significant, given that we sit at one end of the strategically important Greenland-Iceland-Scotland gap.

We are the most northerly non-arctic nation and have a role to play in the effective defence and sustainable development of the High North and Arctic.

We are a proud European nation and seek also to be a constructive and engaged global citizen.

‘Stop the world, Scotland wants to get on’ was not only a political slogan, expressed powerfully by Winnie Ewing who exemplified the outward-looking sentiments that I will talk of today, but it was also a statement of intent. It spoke to who we are and what we want to become.

If we could stop the world, perhaps we could also rewind the world – taking us back to before Brexit in the hope that we could change that particular choice.

But of course, we must face the world as it is, and not the world as we wished it could be.

And that is a world where, last week, because of President Trump’s threats in relation to Greenland, there was real concern that, next week, the United States and Europe would be engaged in an open trade war.

Let us be clear, it is thanks to a resolute response from across Europe, through NATO and the EU, that the threat of tariffs – in effect, economic sanctions wielded in order to force through a change in international borders - was removed.

It was an unprecedented action by an ally, yes, but one more than matched by something more familiar.

We saw a powerful and unified response that produced results, with the nations of Europe standing firm behind fundamental principles of sovereignty and self-determination.

On two occasions now, in less than a year, the threat of a trans-Atlantic trade war, with all the damage it would do to jobs, family incomes and the wider economy, has been a real possibility. 

But it is about more than trade.

The foundations upon which we have built so much have been shaken in a way that I never thought possible.

And yes, cracks have appeared. Cracks that tell us those foundations need, urgently, to be rethought and renewed. After the turbulence of last week, it is only natural for all of us to feel a profound sense of relief that the worst of our fears did not unfold. 

And I think that sense of relief, in itself, tells a story. It reminds us of just how important our relationship with the United States actually is. We are kin – literally in the case of the President – and our ties of friendship are deep.

But in these times of uncertainty, and of change, old assumptions must be replaced with new understandings and that makes this a moment of profound challenge to address.

In the midst of last week’s events, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves made the comment in Davos that - 'Britain will not be buffeted around'.

But as Mark Carney's Davos speech so eloquently analysed – that is exactly the fate that awaits those who fail to see, and fail to prepare, for the new reality that confronts us.

Right now, Britain’s place in the world, Britain’s choices, leave Scotland more vulnerable.

Because of Brexit, Britain is diminished. Because of Brexit, being 'buffeted around' is exactly Britain’s fate.

An insular attitude has separated us from our nearest neighbours, leaving us unnecessarily and dangerously exposed.

A return to the EU should not be seen merely as a kneejerk response to the current context.

This year marks 10 years since the Brexit referendum – and year on year the scale of the Brexit disaster becomes more apparent.

Bit by bit, Britain is being broken by a Brexit that has left families worse off, that has meant less money available to invest in public services like the NHS.

The price we are paying is real, the damage accumulating.

We are poorer outside the EU. We are less safe outside the EU.

While the improvement in the EU’s relations with the UK is welcome, a response that is nothing more than closer alignment, or a mere reset of relationships or even ‘a new customs union but not the customs union’ is in no way sufficient.

Not for the first time, the people are way ahead of the politicians on this simple truth, on this reading of our new reality. Polling in both Scotland and across the UK points to that fact.

But the truth is that a Westminster that too willingly dances to the tune of the very forces that extracted us from the EU is not capable of taking Britain back into Europe.

And so Scotland does face a choice.

Periods of change can also be the periods of greatest clarity, and greatest opportunity.

When so much in the world is in flux, when so much is moving, that which is fixed and steady, that which is most fundamental becomes clear.

I have spent most of my time so far this afternoon speaking about the importance of restoring Scotland’s relationship with the EU. But there are other lessons to be learnt as we navigate our nation’s next steps.

One is that even as the old order changes, it is vitally important to hold on to those principles which have served us well.

The UN is a creation of the post-war order, and it reflects in its structures the power balances of a previous age.

It is in need of reform, to give due recognition to the realities of size and power of this modern age. But that must not mean the creation of alternative global power structures that effectively undermine the UN.

On this basis, let me be specific, the United Kingdom should be clear that it cannot and will not join the Board of Peace.

Both the atrocities committed by Hamas and the response of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government in Gaza, confirm the necessity for a global legal order.

Laws on genocide exist for good reason, but their existence, on their own, is not enough. We need also international courts capable of identifying and prosecuting all and any crimes of war and crimes against humanity.

Powers must be exercised within a robust legal order.

That is best for the world as a whole, a global interest that we must stand firmly behind.

But there is also a national interest, and I am very conscious that what is in the national interest of the UK is not always in the national interest of Scotland.

An independent Scotland would, quite rightly, have the ability to and would make different choices.

Our worldviews overlap in many important ways, as you would expect, but unlike the UK, Scotland has no need and no desire to project power on a global stage.

While Britain may choose to spend billions of pounds on nuclear weapons, that is not a choice any Scottish Government would make.

Like our Nordic neighbours and peers, an independent Scotland would seek to contribute to collective defence as a member of NATO and, in doing so, take responsibility for the proper defence of the strategically important waters and airspace around our shores.

As the far north opens up, a northern nation like Scotland is well placed to play her part.

It does not require a long memory to recall the UK, while increasing investment in nuclear bombs, choose to scrap its entire maritime patrol fleet and its replacement.

The United Kingdom has chosen not to base a single offshore patrol vessel, frigate or destroyer in Scotland – requiring vessels to be dispatched from the south coast of England when the flagship of the Russian Northern Fleet arrived off Scotland.

As the new head of the Secret Intelligence Service, Blaise Metreweli, reflected last month, “we are now operating in a space between peace and war.”

And it is the sort of hybrid war which requires adequate, multi-layered naval capability in Scottish waters, to protect our offshore energy assets, to protect our underwater cables, and adequate air defences in Scotland to deal with threats to our airports – as has happened across northern Europe – from drones.

An independent Scotland would not leave these gaps.

Instead, the UK prioritises nuclear weapons that offer nothing in the face of the actual day to day threats, and which does not deserve the description of being ‘independent’.

Politicians in Westminster may desire the power to destroy the planet, but for a Scottish Government, the priority would be the adequate defence of our waters and our shores.

And just as it is in our national interest to be a reliable partner in regional defence, so too is it in our national interest to be a responsible partner on the global stage, whether for peace or for climate action.

While some governments, including the UK government, choose to reduce spending on international development, the Scottish Government I lead, currently as a devolved or independent, will continue to make a different choice.

Some describe international development investment as an expression of ‘soft power’ but it is way more than that. It is about global solidarity.

It is about simply doing what is right.

For decades, nations in the industrial west have profited from a global economic system than transfers wealth and resources away from the poorest nations to the wealthiest nations.

We have pumped millions of tonnes of carbon into our atmosphere, with the price being paid the most, right now, in island nations in the pacific, in sub-Saharan states in Africa.

Climate justice has been at the heart of Scotland’s international climate action, and it will remain so.

Failure to act will be fatal for millions across our planet, because climate change unleashed will add to global inequality, it will exacerbate polarisation and force millions to flee their homes because of an ever-increasing threat of drought, flood and famine.

It will mean ever-more extreme weather events, and rising seas threatening the loss of coastal towns and cities.

No country on its own, no matter how powerful or influential, can protect the planet. No idealised system of laws or rules, on its own, can change the way we – countries, communities, businesses, universities, individuals – behave.

I spoke at the beginning about the distinction between politics and law, between power and order.

But it is a distinction not of opposites, of competing principles or forces. Rather it is a distinction between two forces that complement each other, that require each other if they are to be most effective.

The rules-based order as we have known it, is not only a system of laws, but a system of relationships. It is a system that involves friends and foes, and very clear power imbalances.

That, for me, is one part of the explanation for the reality being somewhat different from the ideal.

Yes, the rules-based system has never fully functioned as advertised but, even with its flaws, it has been a fundamental part of much of the progress that has been achieved.

But in a world where the exercise of power becomes, by far, the dominant pole, the resulting tension is one that produces not an imperfect balance, but a tearing apart.

The answer, however, is not to abandon hope, or retreat behind our own walls.

It is not to let institutions crumble but to be voices arguing for their value and, where necessary, their modernisation and their reform.

In a changing world, with new challenges emerging – from climate change to questions around the role of AI – we need an international system with the confidence and flexibility to adapt and evolve.

And that is where organisations like the Scottish Council on Global Affairs have an important part to play. So that Scotland’s distinctive perspective, Scotland’s particular needs and interests are part of these very necessary global conversations.

Some will argue that Scotland should let the UK speak on matters of world affairs. I say Scotland should make her voice heard.

We must not give up on cooperation, but be smarter, because even amidst the shifting sands of the current global order, collective action works.

We saw European coordination and leadership in response to provocations around Greenland. 

And we continue to see it in response to Russian aggression, in particular in Ukraine.

For Scotland, regional cooperation is vital. That includes cooperation on these isles. Whatever Scotland’s constitutional future, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will form a distinct family of nations.

It is cooperation across the North Sea, on energy for example, with Scotland well-placed to contribute to Europe-wide efforts to ensure both energy transition and energy independence.

It is cooperation to our north, as a focused and reliable partner in NATO’s defence of the High North and Arctic.

And, most importantly, it is cooperation at a European level, as part of the EU, because have no doubt, countries in a regional bloc of the size and significance of the EU, can achieve the same advantages of reach and scale as any superpower.

The platform for security and prosperity that I set out for Scotland today, of partnership through NATO and the EU, is of course the approach followed by nations across Europe.

And it is through initiatives also such as the EU’s Security Action for Europe or SAFE programme, that EU member states are, right now, working together to enhance their defence and security capabilities.

It is encouraging to see non-EU NATO members such as Canada choosing to engage with this project. And the more the UK – and the Scottish defence sector – can be involved, the better.

This is a time when we should be redoubling our commitment to the European dimension of our defence.

Because small and medium-sized nations, working together, exercising their independence collectively, are less vulnerable to pressure, coercion or transactional threats, wherever they come from.

They are more able to collectively bargain, diversify, and achieve economies of scale.

For Scotland, Europe is obviously our geographic region.  It is also our natural political and economic community. 

The EU’s founding values – human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law, and human rights – align with our own.

And so, I repeat in order to emphasise just how important this is for our nation’s future.

We need to deepen relationships with our like-minded neighbours in the EU – economically, politically, academically, institutionally, culturally. 

We need to work with them – and other like-minded countries globally – to find new ways to practice the same internationalism that we value.

Not to build up our own battlements, not to retreat behind a bigger set of walls, but because we believe in the vision offered by nation states working together in a multinational partnership. Nation states with their independence secured and enhanced through cooperation.

For me, the European Union has always offered an inspirational model for the peaceful coexistence of states, an aspirational model of partnership designed to deliver prosperity and security, to foster friendship, with power shared through key principles such as subsidiarity and solidarity.

It provided us with a means to be good citizens globally, regionally, locally. To leave the EU was a fundamental error.

The United Kingdom wanted control more than cooperation, isolationism rather than partnership.  But the Brexit experiment has failed.

The United Kingdom is not a superpower.  It is an intermediate power. 

One yes, with an advanced economy and significant military, intelligence, and diplomatic assets behind it – yes – but an intermediate power, nonetheless.

As a result, Brexit has been, and will continue to be, an unmitigated economic, political, and societal disaster. 

It has served only to weaken Britain’s standing and influence on the world stage. It has served only to decrease people’s standard of living here at home.

That is why it is time for Scotland to choose a different path. With the world changing rapidly around us, the most prosperous future, the most secure future is as a member state of the European Union. Of that I have no doubt.

I began this address this afternoon with a distinction offered by Professor Sir Neil MacCormick, and I will end by offering something of his vision.

Sir Neil described the EU as a European Commonwealth and that phrase encapsulates so much of what the European project has been about.

We are all in it together. We have to give something up – some of the sovereignty that we hold as individual nations – but in return we get something way more important, way more significant.

What the European Union has achieved is remarkable. A continent riven by wars, brought to the very precipice of disaster, where, in the Holocaust, evil flourished in the most inhumane of ways, became instead a beacon of peace and shared prosperity.

Nations’ prospects transformed – we only have to look west to Ireland to see that truth.

Nations’ independence valued and protected – from the Baltic to the Balkans.

In a world where hope is in short supply, where the dominant forces seem to be all about pulling us apart, Europe offers a powerful alternative, indeed a powerful antidote.

Scotland is a European nation, and I hope, soon, that Scotland will become the EU’s newest member state.