Brexit deal impact study

Exit agreement predicted to hit Scottish economy. 

Scotland’s economy would suffer significant damage under the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, according to Scottish Government analysis.

The assessment estimates that under the free trade agreement envisaged in the deal, Scottish Gross Domestic Product would be 6.1% lower by 2030 compared to forecasts under continued EU membership. This equates to £1,600 per person.

The potential for delays to trade and non-tariff barriers, such as country of origin rules and regulatory alignment, could leave Scotland’s food and drink, digital and service sectors particularly vulnerable.

By granting Northern Ireland continued access to the European Single Market, the deal puts Scottish companies at a competitive disadvantage, while it also fails to address an expected decline in the working age population caused by the ending freedom of movement for people.

Presenting the new assessment to the Scottish Parliament, Constitutional Relations Secretary Michael Russell said:

“The paper we have published today sets out the impact of this disastrous deal on Scotland. It removes any pretence that the UK intends to seek a future relationship with the EU beyond a limited free trade agreement.

“The Fraser of Allander Institute estimates that Scotland’s economy is already around two per cent smaller - £3 billion – than it would have been without the vote to leave the EU and, let’s be clear, this exit deal does not in any way ‘get Brexit done’. It would merely unleash fresh, ever more complex and ever more acrimonious disputes on the population. The likelihood is that it merely postpones a ‘no deal’ crash out for little over a year.

“The UK Government has repeatedly failed to live up to its promises to fully involve the devolved administrations in the Brexit negotiations. The result is a bad deal which will damage Scotland’s interests and ignores our democratic will.

“The people of Scotland have the right to determine their own future free from Brexit as an independent member of the European Union.”


Scotland’s Place in Europe: Our Assessment of the Revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the Future Relationship Between the EU and UK is available online. 


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