ScotStat Board Meeting minutes: February 2025

Attendees and apologies

Board members

• Ana Basiri (AB)
• Camilla Barnett (CB)
• Roeland Beerten (RB)
• John Curtice (JC)
• Susan McVie (SM)
• Ken Roy (KR)
• Lucien Staddon Foster (LSF)

Officials/Speakers/Observers

• Alison Bell (AB), Policy Profession
• Michael Berry (MB), Deputy Head of News
• Lee Bunce (LB), Office of the Chief Statistician, Secretariat
• Esta Clark (EC), National Records of Scotland
• Lisa Clark (LC), Office of the Chief Statistician, Secretariat
• Alan Ferrier (AF), National Records of Scotland
• Gary Gillespie (GG), Chief Economist
• Alice Gowenlock (AG), Office of the Chief Statistician, Secretariat
• Peter Martin (PR), Public Health Scotland
• Ally McAlpine (AM), Chief Statistician
• Camilla Somers (CM), Public Health Scotland
• Amy Wilson (AW), Deputy Director Health Workforce Planning and Delivery, Secretariat
• Jonathon Wroth-Smith (JWS), National Records of Scotland

Apologies

• João Sousa, Board Member
• Scott Heald (SH), Public Health Scotland

Items and actions

Actions from last meeting

LC provided an update on engagement between the Office of the Chief Statistician and the Royal Statistical Society regarding the RSS Conference in Edinburgh in September 2025. KR volunteered to lead on developing a proposal for a session on behalf of the Board.

Update from the Chief Statistician

The Chief Statistician provided an update on the ongoing emergency spending controls across the core Scottish Government and public bodies. Challenges remain in implementing these measures, but efforts continue to build capacity while reinforcing the value of statistics. Statisticians are encouraged to critically assess their outputs and discontinue those that no longer meet user needs. Quarterly meetings with analytical areas are providing a forum for concerns and additional support.

Recruitment remains constrained, with low vacancy levels, and approvals are being sought to fill posts. Discussions with Ministers are ongoing regarding surveys, with National Records of Scotland working to enhance capacity. Lower response rates are being reviewed with finance colleagues to assess potential cost savings.

A structural change was noted, with Paul Matthews now appointed as Head of Profession for the Scottish Government, aligning with other devolved nations and increasing capacity.

Looking ahead to the 2031 Census, concerns were raised about the lack of an announcement from the Office for National Statistics and its omission from the recent Scottish budget.

The Board discussed the impact of spending controls on statistical outputs. Some agricultural statistics were previously paused but have since resumed, and efforts continue to prioritise high-value outputs.

Concerns were raised about transparency in survey planning, with similar challenges reported internationally. The need for a long-term survey strategy was emphasised, with devolved nations awaiting further updates.  There was consensus on the importance of a clear communications strategy for surveys, especially considering the need for responsiveness in ONS’s approach.

The Board also discussed engagement with a broader range of data users beyond immediate stakeholders. An internal review of the 2022 Census will be launched on 20 February, with findings to be presented to the Board. Work is also underway to improve governance around cross-cutting statistics, including potential changes to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.

The Board agreed on the need for transparency in statistical decision-making and will continue to monitor these issues in future meetings.

Future of Population Statistics and the 2031 Census

Colleagues from National Records of Scotland (NRS) provided an update on the future of population statistics following the 2022 Census. Measuring migration remains a key challenge, particularly in urban areas and for specific demographic groups. The consideration of using administrative data instead of a  traditional census could significantly change how the population is measured, shifting the focus from stock to flow. While administrative data can improve accuracy and resource allocation, ensuring coherence and data quality remains a priority and the board noted the some of the downsides of administrative data.

Following the previous advice from the Board to align any future census with the rest of the UK, the Board was advised that decisions on the 2031 Census must align with the wider UK approach while addressing Scotland’s specific needs. A recommendation to Ministers is required by 2026, and work is already underway to assess options. Three key areas of focus were outlined:

• User need – A consultation in 2025 will help determine data requirements.
• Data access – Work is ongoing to improve access to key administrative sources, including HMRC and DWP data.
• Census design – Consideration is being given to the role of administrative data alongside traditional survey methods.

A timely decision is critical, with significant preparatory work required, including procurement, recruitment, and public engagement. A census rehearsal, typically conducted two years in advance, would need to take place in 2029.

The Board acknowledged the importance of ensuring high-quality, reliable population estimates, particularly given their role in determining Scotland’s share of UK funding through the Barnett Formula. The need for political alignment and effective data-sharing agreements was also noted, alongside the value of maintaining public trust in official statistics.

It was agreed that further engagement with Ministers would be beneficial, particularly around funding and data sustainability. The Board supported efforts to ensure that Scotland has the necessary resources and data access to make an informed decision on the 2031 Census. AB and JC offered to provide additional support to NRS in engaging with Ministers on this issue.

Equality Evidence Strategy – Interim Report

The Board received the Equality Evidence Strategy – Interim Report ahead of the meeting and was invited to provide feedback.

The Board welcomed the progress made but highlighted the need for greater transparency on how the data is used. Further detail was sought on best practice within the analytical community.

It was noted that while the strategy is improving the system of support and data collection, its overall impact remains unclear. In particular, there was discussion on how much untapped potential exists in relation to key Ministerial priorities, such as child poverty.

The Board agreed that further clarity would be beneficial and suggested requesting an “Impact of Actions Taken” paper from the equality team. Ongoing engagement with the Improvement Board and external organisations, including the National Women’s Council, was also noted as an important factor in ensuring wider visibility of this work. A full review is expected in April, and an update will be provided at the next meeting.

Concerns were raised about the challenges section of the report, which suggested that this work had been deprioritised. Given the importance of high-quality equalities data, the Board sought further detail on these challenges and whether additional support was needed to ensure this work remains a priority.

It was acknowledged that equalities data remains a government priority, but resource constraints mean the work is heavily reliant on the census. The importance of collecting the right data to address key challenges was emphasised, as well as the need to engage with those measuring impact to ensure a robust approach.

The Board agreed to revisit this discussion at a future meeting once the full strategy is published.

Pre-Release Access to Official Statistics

The Board heard perspectives on existing arrangements on pre-release access (PRA) from Michael Berry (communications), Alison Bell (policy), and Gary Gillespie (Chief Economic Adviser). 

Speakers highlighted the benefits of PRA in ensuring Ministers are well briefed to be able to respond accurately to statistical publications as well as enabling any media handling or issues to be discussed in advance, while also recognising concerns around public trust and statistical independence. AM noted concern that reducing PRA could shift pressure from statisticians to other areas of government, such as policy. 

It was noted that approaches to PRA vary across the UK, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) choosing to remove PRA entirely, while other government departments retain different levels of access. Some economic statistics in Scotland operate with 24-hour PRA, which is seen as manageable but still challenging for producing high-quality briefings.

It was noted that as an arms-length body ONS have greater independence compared to Scottish Government statisticians, and the Board discussed the need for a change of culture in Scotland. There was a suggestion of analysts appearing in the media instead of Ministers to better reinforce independence of statistics or opposition parties having the same level of access to the statistics to avoid any political advantage. 

The Board also considered international perspectives, including RB’s experience in Belgium. There, PRA was introduced after Ministers had been disseminating statistics first with political commentary. To ensure impartiality and public trust, PRA was reduced to 24 hours, allowing Ministers some preparation time to comment after official publication by the statistical authority, while maintaining the independence of official statistics.

The discussion also explored whether Scotland should move towards a more independent model, potentially reducing or removing PRA. Suggestions included greater transparency in who requests PRA and ensuring civil servants are better prepared for scenario planning with respect to statistical releases.

The Board agreed that further insight from the UK level, including perspectives from the ONS and a former Special Advisor would help inform the discussion before reaching a position. 

Any Other Business

The Chief Statistician updated the board on the recent concerns raised about the Health and Wellbeing Census. AM confirmed he will share further information with the Board.

Actions

• KR to engage with RSS and propose a session for the 2025 Conference in Edinburgh.
• Office of the Chief Statistician (OCS) to provide the Board with further information about examples where statisticians have paused or stopped a publication.
• OCS to share the Internal Review of the 2022 Census with the Board once published.
• The Board to draft a statement of support for the early investment in the 2031 Census to present to Ministers.
• AM to discuss the Board’s comments on the Equality Evidence Strategy Interim Report with equalities analysts and request a paper on the “Impacts of Actions”. AM will bring this to the Equality Data Improvement Board which he co-chairs.
• OCS to invite equalities analysts to a future meeting of the Board once the final review of the Evidence Equality Strategy has been published.
• OCS to invite speakers external to a further discussion on pre-release access at the next ScotStat Board meeting.
• AM to share updates with the Board on developments relating to the Health and Wellbeing Census.