ScotStat Board Meeting Minutes: April 2025

Attendees and apologies

Board members

• Ana Basiri (AB)
• Camilla Barnett (CB)
• Roeland Beerten (RB)
• John Curtice (JC)
• Susan McVie (SM)
• Ken Roy (KR)
• João Sousa (JS)
• Lucien Staddon Foster (LSF)

Officials/Speakers/Observers

• Lee Bunce (LB), Office of the Chief Statistician, Secretariat
• Lisa Clark (LC), Office of the Chief Statistician, Secretariat
• Ruth Curtice (RC), Resolution Foundation, Speaker
• Steve Ellerd-Elliot (SE), Department of Work and Pensions, Speaker
• Grant Fitzner (GF), Office of National Statistics, Speaker
• Alice Gowenlock (AG), Office of the Chief Statistician, Secretariat
• Mary Gregory (MG), Office of National Statistics, Speaker
• Scott Heald (SH), Public Health Scotland
• Graham Knox (GK), Department of Work and Pensions, Speaker
• Paul Matthews (PM), Office of the Chief Statistician, Observer
• Ally McAlpine (AM), Chief Statistician
• James Nation (JN), Forefront Advisers, Speaker
• Andrew Needham (AN), Department of Work and Pensions, Speaker
• Sean Whellams (SW), HM Revenue and Customs, Speaker
• Stella Delf (SD), HM Revenue and Customs, Observer
• Heather Whicker (HW), HM Revenue and Customs, Speaker

Apologies

• Amy Wilson (AW), Scottish Government, Secretariat
• Jonathon Wroth-Smith (JWS), National Records of Scotland

 

Items and actions

Actions from last meeting

KR provided an update on a potential ScotStat Board-led panel session at the RSS Conference in Edinburgh. While the agenda is mostly finalised, there may still be scope to feature a session on international and UK-wide perspectives. Further information will be shared in due course.

The Board reviewed a paper on paused or stopped Scottish Government statistical publications. JC raised concerns about the lack of data on social care waiting times and its implications for public accountability. SH agreed to provide further information to the Board.

Update from the Chief Statistician

The Board discussed developments in sex and gender data following the Sullivan Review. The Scottish Government has committed to review its guidance before the end of 2026. The Government Statistical Service (GSS) is currently leading UK-wide work to develop harmonised standards for collecting data on sex and gender identity. The Office of the Chief Statistician is liaising with the team delivering this work and will consider its outputs as part of the review of its own guidance.

The Chief Statistician updated on recently announced reviews of the UK Statistics Authority by the Cabinet Office and the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee. These reviews may have implications for Scottish labour market data. While the Scottish Government funds survey boosts to support local analysis, alternatives are being explored to maintain data quality. Economic growth remains a key ministerial priority.

The Equalities Evidence Strategy was reviewed. With one year remaining, efforts are being focused on high-impact work. A final evaluation is underway and findings will be shared with the Board.

CB and JS will engage with the Labour Force Survey team to understand current use of the data.

Population and Migration Statistics

The Board heard contributions from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and His majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) on the use of administrative data in population and migration statistics. This included discussion of the opportunities, challenges and implications for the future of the UK population and migration statistics.

Mary Gregory (ONS) highlighted the growing reliance on administrative data. While this brings benefits in terms of scale and timeliness, it also introduces complexity and places pressure on infrastructure. A decision on administrative data contributing to the census is expected in Summer 2025. Challenges remain around coverage and building public trust.

Andrew Needham (DWP) presented the RAPID dataset, which links 16 years of DWP and HMRC data. It supports work on poverty and survey transformation, though limitations exist in terms of household-level data and coverage of non-claimants. Plans are in place to extend access to devolved administrations.

Sean Whellams (HMRC) provided an overview of monthly PAYE and annual self-assessment data. Although broad in coverage, there are data challenges for some groups, particularly the self-employed, which is not as timely as PAYE data. Work is ongoing to improve quality and widen access.

Issues discussed included the need for consistency across the UK, legal and data sharing constraints, skills development and the limitations of administrative data in capturing marginalised groups and complex social characteristics.

While administrative data continues to improve, it was agreed that it cannot yet replace the census. Investment in surveys and UK-wide coordination remain important. ONS reaffirmed the importance of maintaining public trust and evaluating all available sources before any move away from the census.

Pre-Release Access (PRA)

The Board heard contributions from speakers with experience of working without pre-release access to official statistics (PRA), following the removal of PRA by ONS in 2017.

Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist at ONS, described the removal of PRA in England was introduced due to concerns over the scale of early access and potential leaks, particularly relating to market-sensitive economic statistics published during trading hours. GF explained that exceptional pre-release, such as for the Bank of England, are tightly controlled with the exchange of letters published online for transparency. He noted that releasing statistics at 7 am has helped mitigate risks and enables ONS to shape the early narrative while ensuring public trust.

Ruth Curtice, previously Director of Fiscal Policy at HM Treasury, shared the civil service experience, reflecting on the operational challenges faced without PRA. Departments often have to prepare multiple possible media responses, choosing which to issue when the data are released. RC highlighted that without prior access, ministers may be less able to provide informed or timely commentary, leading to more generic communications. The short time available tended to mean discussion of the data was done at a more senior level but in less depth.

James Nation, former Deputy Director of Number 10 Policy Unit and Special Adviser to Chancellor of the Exchequer, reflected on the impact of removal of PRA in 2017 which occurred without direct engagement with political stakeholders and reflected that this had left ministers at a disadvantage. JN emphasised that ministers are accountable for explaining government policy and should have some prior understanding of key statistics to do so effectively. He warned that the lack of PRA risks poor communication and misrepresentation of statistics in the media, and argued for limited, secure access in specific high-profile cases.

The Board discussed the balance between public trust and effective communication. There was interest in models offering limited, secure access, such as the ‘bunker’ arrangements used during the pandemic.

Concerns were raised about the independence of statistics and the distinction between the ONS as a non-ministerial department and Scottish Government statisticians operating within ministerial structures.

The evolving media environment and expectations around Management Information were noted as additional challenges. A more nuanced approach to PRA was considered, balancing independence with the need for accurate, timely communication.

Lessons for a Modern Statistical System from the Census and the Health and Wellbeing Census

The Board considered recently published report on Developing a modern statistical system - a review of Scotland's Census 2022, alongside recent issues related to the Health and Wellbeing Census. The Board considered how these experiences could inform a more resilient and transparent statistical system.

The Board welcomed the honest reflections shared and acknowledged the complexity of delivering statistics on sensitive topics. While transparency and early engagement were prioritised, potential improvements to assurance and communication processes were identified.

Concerns were raised about decision-making and governance, including a lack of consultation with the Chief Statistician on delay to statistical products. This highlighted the need for clearer oversight.

It was noted that even with earlier implementation of these lessons, different decisions may not have been taken in the Health and Wellbeing Census. The Board agreed that similar risks remain and emphasised the importance of strengthening assurances and early engagement to reduce the likelihood of future issues.

The ongoing census review was welcomed. Work is underway to strengthen assurance, including clarifying the authority and role of the Chief Statistician across the system.

Improved coordination between policy and statistics was emphasised, along with clearer guidance on the independence and responsibilities of statisticians.

The Board agreed to revisit this topic once the census review concludes and further actions are identified.

Any Other Business

It was noted that the UK Statistics Authority is expected to make a decision in June 2025 on the future of the census. The Board agreed this would be a timely opportunity to consider the broader implications for the structure of the statistics profession in Scotland.

The Board agreed to engage with National Records of Scotland to follow up on discussions around population and migration statistics. This includes reviewing the adequacy of current methods for mid-year population estimates and exploring use of UK-wide data resources.

Actions

• Public Health Scotland to further explore data gaps in Social Care Waiting Times.
• CB and JS to engage with the Labour Force Survey team on data use.
• Board to revisit lessons from the Census and Health and Wellbeing Census following completion of the census review.
• Board to engage with National Records of Scotland on mid-year population estimates and inter-census data use.
• AB to draft a response paper following the UKSA decision on the future of the census.
• Chief Statistician to keep the board updated on any developments of Sex and Gender Guidance.