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Scenario Modelling: Impact of the Reduction of the Renewables Obligation on fuel bills and ending the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) scheme on fuel poverty in Scotland


Notes

 

These estimates are based on Scotland’s statutory definition of fuel poverty. Under this definition a household is in fuel poverty if:

 

  • in order to maintain a satisfactory heating regime, total fuel costs necessary for the home are more than 10% of the household's adjusted (i.e. after housing costs) net income (and more than 20% in the case of extreme fuel poverty); and

 

  • if, after deducting those fuel costs, benefits received for a care need or disability and childcare costs, the household's remaining adjusted net income is insufficient to maintain an acceptable standard of living.

 

Under this definition, a household’s adjusted after housing costs net income is net of income tax, national insurance contributions, mortgage or rent payments, council tax, water and sewerage charges.

 

The remaining adjusted net income must be at least 90% of the UK Minimum Income Standard to be considered an acceptable standard of living, with an additional amount added for households in remote rural, remote small town and island areas. As calculated in “The cost of remoteness: reflecting higher living costs in remote rural Scotland 2023 update”[1], 90% of the UK MIS[2] ranged from between £10,320 for a single pensioner to £35,100 for a couple with two children[3], while in RRRSTI areas it ranged from between £12,900 for a single pensioner and £40,100 for a couple with children to reflect the higher cost of living.

 

It should be noted that fuel poverty rates are calculated based on modelled fuel bills which represent the amount we estimate a household would need to spend on fuel to heat their home to the required temperatures for the required number of hours, as set out in The Fuel Poverty (Enhanced Heating) (Scotland) Regulations 2020.

 

This will differ from a household’s actual energy use which will vary due to household circumstances and preferences. 

 

[2] MIS values used in the fuel poverty calculation exclude fuel costs, childcare, rent, council tax and water.

[3] The 2023 UK MIS value for a couple with children ranges from £25,920 to £53,470 based on the age and number of children in the household. For this analysis a midpoint value of £39,000 was chosen which represents a couple with three primary school aged children (aged 5-11 inclusive).

 

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