Methodology

As the reduction of the RO levy and the removal of the ECO scheme will lead to a larger reduction in electricity unit rates compared to gas unit rates, we have slightly refined our fuel poverty scenario modelling methodology, which is currently based on deriving overall average fuel bill changes based on the difference between the average 2023 and current Ofgem price cap for gas and electricity combined, then applying this to all household bills.

As an alternative, in this case we have applied gas and electricity unit rates more directly in order to provide a bit more precision when considering the impact on households with different primary heating fuels.

This analysis is based on data from the achieved sample of the 2023 Scottish House Condition Survey.

In order to model estimated fuel poverty rates under the current January to March  2026 price cap we have uprated the prices, and where applicable standing charges, used in the 2023 SHCS, by fuel type, to reflect the current unit price for each households modelled energy consumption in order to meet their statutory fuel poverty heating regime[1].

For single meter electricity and mains gas the prices used are the published per kwh price[2] and standing charges for the January to March 2026 price cap. These are summarised for regions of Scotland and by payment method in Table 8 in the Annex.

For households with dual metered electricity (i.e Economy 7 meters) the day and night (high and low) per kwh rates were uprated by a scaling factor equal to the difference between the DESNZ average index price of electricity for 2023 and the most recent DESZN index price (November 2025). This is because the SHCS uses both day and night (high and low) per kwh prices as well as Kwh consumption to model fuel bills for households using multi-register tariffs such as Economy 7. However, although electricity for multi register meters is covered by the Ofgem price cap, they do not publish high and low price figures.

Similarly for other fuels which are not covered by the price cap we have scaled the per unit price by the difference between the average DESNZ index price in 2023 and the most recent DESZN index price[3] (November 2025)[4]. 

These updated unit prices, and current Jan to March 2026 standing charges, were then applied to the modelled energy use of households in the achieved sample for the 2023 SHCS to produce update fuel bills which were then applied to the fuel poverty calculation.

In order to ascertain the impact of the reduction of the RO levy and the removal of the ECO scheme on fuel poverty we subtracted 3.4p from the updated per kwh unit rate for all electricity types (single meters and both high and low dual meter prices), as well as 0.315p from the unit rate for mains gas[5].

These new unit prices, and current Jan to March 2026 standing charges, were then applied to the modelled energy use of households in the achieved sample for the 2023 SHCS and updated bills and fuel poverty calculations were run.