NHS Scotland winter modelling: FOI release

Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002.

Information requested

  1. Has the Scottish Government done any modelling on how NHS Scotland will cope during the winter months?
  2. If so could you supply this modelling?  
  3. If you have not modelled it then why not?
  4. How does it compare to the two previous winters in terms of bed capacity being filled and how many people are expected to present at a&e daily?


1. As part of the Scottish Government preparedness for Winter, Public Health Scotland have been commissioned to produce regular modelling outputs describing future acute hospital demand and capacity projections under a range of scenarios. The purpose of this modelling is to provide intelligence to senior officials within Government, NHS Health Boards, HSCP Resilience Teams and related Delivery Partners to support decision making on policy and service planning, as part of Scottish Government and the health systems planning.

2. While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide the information you have requested because an exemption(s) under section.29(1)(a) (policy formulation) of FOISA applies to that information. The reasons why that exemption(s) applies are explained below

3. N/A see 1. above

4. The methods used to project hospital occupancy for the 2022/23 winter are similar to those used for winter 2021/22. However, the scenarios being modelled differ due to the current information available, surveillance in place and change in the diseases from previous winter.

NHS Health Boards are expected to monitor unscheduled care attendances at a local level and plan services accordingly. PHS published A&E attendances are also available down to site level on a weekly and monthly basis at the following: Weekly: Show all releases ‐ Publications ‐ Public Health Scotland; Monthly: Show all releases ‐ Publications ‐ Public Health Scotland

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at http://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.


Please quote the FOI reference
Central Enquiry Unit
Email: ceu@gov.scot
Phone: 0300 244 4000

The Scottish Government
St Andrews House
Regent Road

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