Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan: Fairer Scotland Duty Impact Assessment

Fairer Scotland Duty

This Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment sets out how the Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan (JTP) will reduce inequalities of outcome caused by socio-economic disadvantage.

Title of policy, strategy or programme

Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan

Summary of aims and expected outcomes of strategy, proposal, programme or policy

The Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan (JTP) is the Scottish Government’s first regional, place-based Just Transition Plan, that works to support a decarbonised industrial cluster whilst embedding positive and equitable outcomes for the workforce and wider community of Grangemouth. Our ambition is that 2045 the cluster becomes a centre for chemicals, biofuels infrastructure and hydrogen sectors that play a key role in driving Scotland’s energy security and economic prosperity.

To achieve this ambition the Scottish Government has set out five key transition pillars that strive towards:

1) A thriving industrial cluster, leveraging existing strengths;

2) A low-carbon fuel and energy hub for the future;

3) An industrial carbon capture point for central Scotland;

4) Scotland’s central bio-manufacturing location; and

5) An innovative cluster leading new and advanced industrial processes and manufacturing.

The pillars are intended to guide the work of delivering the plan’s technical and commercial goals which are complex in nature and require long range planning.

The plan also provides a set of Just Transition Outcomes based on the Scottish Government’s National Just Transition Planning Framework. The four outcomes the Grangemouth JTP aims to improve are:

• Jobs, Skills, and Economic Opportunities
• Communities and Places
• People and Equity
• Adaptation, Biodiversity and Environment

These outcomes are intended to ensure that the communities and workforce are given equal priority and stand to benefit form decision making that supports the economic growth of Grangemouth as it transitions to net zero.

The plan is underpinned by 21 actions (which are categorised into near, medium and long term activities) with the ultimate goal of improving across the themes of aligning strategy and governance, improving access to jobs and skills, regulatory changes, enhanced engagement between community and industry, and increased access to Scottish and UK Government funding for the benefit of industry, the workforce and wider community.

Summary of Evidence

The JTP gathers a wide range of data constituting its baseline, some of which provides a socio-economic overview of circumstances at a local level.

Local Economy

Current data outlined in the JTP baseline suggests that GVA is estimated to be £644m in 2025. This is a reduction on £895m in 2023, largely resulting from recent global and local events which have resulted in the cessation of Fujifilm (dye manufacturing), Petroineos (oil refinery), and Versalis (chemical plant), businesses within the Cluster. These closures will have knock on impacts on the local economy.

Whilst the industrial cluster itself provides a significant local economic input, as well as providing high paying jobs that are above the national and regional averages, wider evidence gathered during the drafting of the JTP suggests that there are existing inequalities of income and employment between Grangemouth, the wider Falkirk area, and current national averages.

Data included within the JTP indicates that at the local authority level, income for those living in Falkirk is generally lower than the national average for Scotland.

Employment deprivation is a measure of people in a population area who are involuntarily excluded from the labour market. Income deprivation is a measure of the proportion of people in an area who are out of work or who experience low earnings. Overall, Grangemouth has a higher proportion of working age people in employment deprivation and income deprivation than Falkirk and Scotland.

Gender inequality

The JTP cites a 2024 report commissioned to Scottish Enterprise that found 20% of the workforce across the Grangemouth cluster are female. This suggests a significant gender inequality within the current labour force in the area.

Feedback Gained via Public Consultation

Feedback gathered from the local community during the public consultation on the draft JTP suggested that a common challenge for young people in Grangemouth is their access to STEM education and employment opportunities. Consultation feedback also conveyed a desire that local training programmes are made more inclusive to improve the accessibility to a broader range of age groups with a specific response highlighting the limitations of apprenticeship programs only allowing people up to age 25 to participate, meaning people are not afforded equal opportunities the further they get from ‘school age’.

Consultation feedback on the draft JTP also highlighted a concern that the current standard of communication between the local community, businesses, and the local council was inadequate.

The consultation also highlighted that access to transport is an area of concern for local residents, especially regarding bus links between Falkirk and Grangemouth. This has implications on access to work on those in the community who do not have access to a car or driving license.

Summary of Assessment Findings

After completing this assessment it was determined that several actions outlined within the JTP that have been considered to reduce inequalities of outcome for the local area. An overview of these actions and their projected impact are outlined below:

Support the Delivery of Project Willow

The action to support and fund the delivery of Project Willow has the potential to reduce employment inequality as it would provide new employment opportunities across a range of occupations including operators, maintenance technicians, engineers, scientists, and laboratory workers. Similarly, the creation of new skilled roles is anticipated to lead to an equitable increase in wages. This could look to address the income inequality challenge in Grangemouth relative to the wider area of Falkirk as identified in the JTP.

Skills Focused Actions

The JTP includes a series of actions focused on support for the current and future workforce. This includes an skills provision to existing refinery workers facing redundancy as well as a proposed skills offer that will seek to combine to develop enhanced STEM outreach programmes with local partners and tailored skills development aligned to the needs of the transitioning cluster. This could enhance STEM skills among the workforce through greater access to opportunities and resources. More equitable access to education may improve the skillset of young people in and around Grangemouth. Current students in the area are likely to make up a portion of the future workforce and thus completing their studies could increase their employability and would be likely to reduce local employment disparities.

Develop a Plan to Improve Public Transport Links

The action outlined within the JTP to develop the initial findings of a public transport study could reduce employment inequalities caused by the currently limited access to public transport routes. If the findings of this plan are successfully addressed it could increase connectivity and accessibility around Grangemouth, which could reduce barriers to employment and increase equitable access to jobs for residents.

Continue to Community Engagement and Participation Manager

There is an action in the JTP to consider the next steps for funding a Community Engagement and Participation Manager in the area. This role currently serves as a means of including community representation on the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB), and continuing the role could improve social cohesion and community engagement by improving the communication between groups, such as businesses and employees. Improved communication could lead to better allocation of resources or funding for businesses or employees.

Finally, the JTP outlines a robust Monitoring and Evaluation Framework that sets out a series of qualitative and quantitative indicators against which the plan’s efficacy will be measured. This includes measures of income deprivation, health outcomes, and employment data. Action owners outlined within the JTP will be required to report into this framework, and the Scottish Government has committed to publishing its findings on monitoring and evaluation for the JTP every two years. Further analysis of the JTP’s impact on inequalities of outcome will be considered within each cycle of monitoring and evaluation reporting.

Sign off

Name: Susie Townend

Job title: Deputy Director, Energy Industries Division

Date: 1^st July 2025