Risk assessments, reoffending projections and correspondence regarding early prisoner release measures: FOI release

Information requested

• All internal risk assessments, reoffending projections, and correspondence between the Justice Directorate and Police Scotland regarding the impact of early prisoner release measures introduced since 1 August 2025
• All internal risk assessments, reoffending projections, and correspondence between the Justice Directorate and the Scottish Prison Service regarding the impact of early prisoner release measures introduced since 1 August 2025.

Response

I enclose a copy of some of the information you requested. The information in response to both of your questions has not been separated in the attached documents for release to avoid duplication of information.

Some of the information you have requested is available online. A large part of the risk assessment and mitigation process shared by the Scottish Government and the Scottish Prison Service (SPS) with regard to the impact of emergency early release can be found in the Impact Assessments published as part of the SSI for the Early Release of Prisoners (Scotland) Regulations 2025. Under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website(s) listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.

You may also wish to separately contact SPS who may be able to help you with regard to their own engagement with Police Scotland on these matters. They lead on the operational side of emergency early release, and so engage directly with Police Scotland on a more frequent basis.

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide some of the information you have requested.

An exemption under section 38(1)(b) of FOISA applies to some the information you have requested. This relates to the personal data of a third party. This exemption is not subject to the 'public interest test', so we are not required to consider if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption.

In addition to the exemption above, exemptions under section 30(b)(i) and 30(b)(ii) of FOISA (free and frank provision of advice and free and frank exchange of views for the purpose of deliberation) also apply to some of the information you have requested. These exemptions apply because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice. These exemptions recognise the need for officials to have a private space within which to provide free and frank advice to both other government officials and Ministers when discussing impact of early release.

These exemptions are subject to the 'public interest test'. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is some public interest in release as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, this is outweighed by the public interest in allowing a private space within which officials can provide full and frank advice and to to freely provide views within internal discussion, so that good decisions can be taken. Disclosing the content of such free and frank exchanges of views and provision of advice will substantially inhibit the communication of such matters in the future, which would not be in the public interest.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202600508818 - Information released - Documents

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