Correspondence relating to the costs to freeze ScotRail fares: FOI release

Information requested

All documents relating to the costing to freeze ScotRail fares for a year that was announced on 12 February 2026.

Response

Please find attached to this letter Annex A, which contains the available information you have requested. While we aim to provide the information wherever possible, some of the information in the attached Annex has been redacted or withheld in line with the following FOISA exemptions:

Section 30(b)(i) - the free and frank provision of advice

An exemption under section 30(b)(i) of FOISA applies to some of the information requested.

Whilst we aim to provide information whenever possible, an exemption under section 30(b)(i) of FOISA applies to some of the information in the attached document. This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice in the future.

This exemption recognises the need for officials to have a private space within which to provide free and frank advice to Ministers and officials before the Scottish Government reaches a settled public view. Disclosing the content of free and frank advice would inhibit free and frank provision of advice between the Ministers and/or their officials in the future.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption.

We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in maintaining an environment in which advice can be exchanged without prejudice in the future, enabling Ministers to make well informed decisions having considered all available advice and information.

Section 38(1)(b) – Personal data relating to third party

An exemption under section 38(1)(b) of FOISA (personal information) applies to some of the information requested because it is personal data of a third party, i.e. names and contact details of individuals, and disclosing it would contravene the data protection principles in Article 5(1) of the General Data Protection Regulation and in section 34(1) of the Data Protection Act 2018.

This exemption is not subject to the ‘public interest test’, so we are not required to consider if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption.

The information that has been redacted has been clearly marked with the relevant exemption i.e. Section 30 (b)(i).

The remaining information that has been redacted is that which falls into the exemption of section 38 (1) (b) – third party and personal data.

As you have asked for documents related to the costing of the ScotRail fare freeze for the year 2026-27, when preparing our response, we have also considered figures provided by ScotRail. These figures allowed us to make some of the calculations, including in the costing. Please note that we are withholding these figures, as they are commercially sensitive for ScotRail Trains Ltd, who operates in a commercial environment and an exemption under section 33(1)(b) of FOISA applies to this information.

Section 33(1)(b) - Substantial prejudice to commercial interests

This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, prejudice substantially commercial interests of ScotRail.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption.

We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open and transparent government, and to help account for the public expenditure. However, there is a greater public interest in protecting the commercial interests of ScotRail, to ensure that it can successfully operate in a commercial environment. Disclosing of the figures provided by ScotRail to enable our costing calculations would allow other train operating companies as well as other modes of transport companies an access to commercially sensitive information and put ScotRail’s commercial ability at risk. Considering that ScotRail is in public ownership, any commercial disadvantage, could negatively affect public spend, which would not be in public interest.

That being said, you might find it helpful to note that the core modelling of revenue assumes that a fare rise in line with inflation will leave demand unaffected, a rise below inflation will increase demand and a rise above inflation will decrease demand. The methodology used matches the approach used by the UK Government in their costing of the freeze in England.

Thus the fare freeze is estimated to increase journeys by 3 million, increasing the utilisation of the rail system in Scotland compared with a rise of CPI inflation plus 1%. Around a half of these journeys are estimated to be mode shift from private car, making a modest contribution to climate change targets.

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) publishes income and expenditure figures by operator. The latest available figures from 2024/5 show 31.8% of ScotRail’s costs were covered by revenue.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202600506234 - Information released - Annex A

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