Correspondence regarding the reduction of NHS waiting times: FOI Review

Information requested

Original request 202500484740

1. Please provide me with a copy of the modelling and/or forecasts carried out by, or provided to, the Scottish Government regarding the commitment to reduce NHS waits of over a year by March 2026.

2. Please also provide me with a copy of any correspondence, including briefings and any attachments, provided to Ministers regarding the commitments to reduce on NHS waits of over a year, between the following dates:

a. 27 June 2022 – 7 July 2022
b. 23 September 2024 – 1 October 2024
c. 25 November 2024 – 5 December 2024
d. 19 May 2025 – 28 May 2025

Response

I have now completed my review of our response to your request under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002 (FOISA) for 202500484740:

“a copy of the modelling or forecasts that related to the commitment to reduce NHS waits of over a year” and “that the response be reviewed, with a view to:

• Releasing additional information where exemptions do not clearly apply.
• Providing a more detailed explanation of the exemptions relied upon, including how the public interest test was conducted to justify redacting entire meeting minutes.
• Considering whether partial disclosure or less intrusive redactions could balance the protection of sensitive information with the public’s right to know.”

I have been asked to re-examine your request, to decide whether the original response should be confirmed, with or without modifications, as appropriate, or a fresh decision be substituted. I can confirm that I was not involved in the handling or decision-making around the original response. I have considered this case again, and have conducted a comprehensive review of the response, and the reasons behind withholding the requested information.

I have concluded that the original decision should be confirmed, with modifications.

In accordance with section 21(4) of Freedom of Information (S) Act, I have reached a decision on your request. I can confirm that in reviewing the request we are now releasing previously withheld information. This information can be found in the attached documents that relate to document numbers 15, 19, 22 and 23 in the table attached (Annex A).

In re-evaluating your request we have established that information was publicly available in relation to your question regarding the modelling and/or forecasts carried out, or provided to Scottish Government. A range of modelling analysis on planned care demand and activity was previously undertaken which helped to inform this decision. Such modelling was previously released under an FOI (FOI/202400436621) and can be found here: Scottish Government modelling for the elective care waiting list: FOI release - gov.scot. Under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website(s) listed, then please contact me again and I will send you paper copies.

Additional modelling was undertaken to estimate the scale of activity to meet the target of eliminating long waits but this did not inform the decision. Please see the attached document “long waits additional activity.....” for this information.

As noted above we are now releasing some information that was previously withheld however some information remains exempt from disclosure with the following exceptions applied:

Section 29(1)(a) – formulation or development of government policy

An exemption under section 29(1)(a) of FOISA (formulation or development of government policy) applies to some of the information requested because it relates to the formulation of the Scottish Government’s policy on reducing NHS waiting times.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a
greater public interest in high quality policy and decision-making, and in the properly considered implementation and development of policies and decisions. This means that Ministers and officials need to be able to consider all available options and to debate those rigorously, to fully understand their possible implications. Their candour in doing so will be affected by their assessment of whether the discussions will be disclosed in the near future, when it may undermine or constrain the Government’s view on that policy while it is still under discussion and development.

Section 30(b)(i) – free and frank provision of advice

An exemption under section 30(b)(i) of FOISA (free and frank provision of advice) applies to some of the information requested. This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice. This exemption recognises the need for officials to have a private space within which to provide free and frank advice to Ministers before the Scottish Government reaches a settled public view. Disclosing the content of free and frank advice will substantially inhibit the provision of such advice in the future, particularly because these discussions are still ongoing and decisions have not been taken

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in allowing a private space within which officials can provide full and frank advice to Ministers, as part of the process of exploring and refining the Government’s position. This private thinking space is essential to enable all options to be properly considered, based on the best available advice, so that good decisions can be taken. Premature disclosure is likely to undermine the full and frank discussion of issues between Ministers and officials, which in turn will undermine the quality of the policymaking process, which would not be in the public interest.

Section 30(b)(ii) – free and frank exchange of views for the purposes of deliberation

An exemption under section 30(b)(ii) of FOISA (free and frank exchange of views) applies to some of the information requested. This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank exchange of views for the purposes of deliberation. This exemption recognises the need for Ministers and officials to have a private space within which to discuss and explore options before the Scottish Government reaches a settled public view. Disclosing the content of free and frank discussions will substantially inhibit such discussions in the future, particularly because [these discussions are still ongoing and decisions have not been taken.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in allowing Ministers and officials a private space within which to explore and refine the Government’s position. This private thinking space is essential to enable all options to be properly considered, so that good policy decisions can be taken. Premature disclosure is likely to undermine the full and frank discussion of issues between Ministers and officials, which in turn will undermine the quality of the policymaking process, which would not be in the public interest.

Section 38(1)(b) – personal information

An exemption under section 38(1)(b) of FOISA (personal information) applies to some of the information requested because it is personal data of a third party, eg names/contact details of individuals, and disclosing it would contravene the data protection principles in Article 5(1) of the General Data Protection Regulation and in section 34(1) of the Data Protection Act 2018. This exemption is not subject to the ‘public interest test’, so we are not required to consider if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption.

You also made reference to a missing slide deck and information relating to a follow up meeting. The requested slide decks have not been disclosed as they contain information prepared to inform and support the development of policy. These slides were used to present options, analysis, and advice to Scottish Ministers as part of ongoing decision-making. In accordance with Section 30(b)(i) of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002, we consider that releasing this information would, or would be likely to, inhibit the future provision of free and frank advice to Ministers. The ability of officials to provide candid and robust advice is essential to effective policy formulation. On balance, we have concluded that the public interest in maintaining this exemption — to protect the integrity of the decisionmaking process — outweighs the public interest in disclosure.

With regards to your request of minutes for the meeting scheduled on 12th December, these have not been released. As the meeting in question took place on 12 December 2024, it falls outside the specified timeframes and has therefore not been considered for release under this request.

Additionally, I apologise that in your original response it was not made clear what information has been provided for each part of question 2. Please therefore see the table attached (Annex A) which I hope makes it clearer and more accessible for you. There were no documents or emails that were found to be in scope in the trawl process covering the requested period of 23rd September 2024 – 1st October 2024 (2(b)).

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202500489178 - Information released - Annex A

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FOI 202500489178 - Information released - Documents

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