UK Government’s spending review statement justification: FOI release

Information requested

Responding to the UK Government’s spending review on 11th June 2025, John Swinney said:

“If our budget had increased at the same rate as the average of departments in the rest of the UK, we would have had £1.1 billion more available for public expenditure and for investment in Scotland.”

Source:

https://x.com/johnswinney/status/1932892116264628287?s=46

Please provide the calculations which justify this statement.

Response

Table 5.3 of the UK Government’s Spending Review document details that the Average Annual Real Growth for Resource Departmental Expenditure Limits excluding depreciation from 2025-26 to 2028-29 is 1.2%. This can be found online here.

If the Scottish Government was provided with 1.2% consistent real terms growth across the Spending Review period (following uplift of GDP deflator to achieve the base position each year), the settlement figures would be as follows:

Financial Year	Prior year settlement (£’m)	GDP Deflator	Inflationary settlement (£’m)	Growth Rate	1.2% real terms settlement (£’m)
2026-27	41,613	1.66%	42,302	1.2%	42,809
2027-28	42,809	2.04%	43,681	1.2%	44,206
2028-29	44,206	1.95%	45,066	1.2%	45,607

These figures have been compared to our actual block grant settlement from the UK spending review, as per the table below.

	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	Total
1.2% real terms settlement (£’m)	41,613	42,809	44,206	45,607
Spending Review settlement (£’m)	41,613	42,714	43,840	45,018
Difference (£’m)	-	95	366	589	1,050

Figures are rounded to the nearest million.

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