Information regarding Calculation of Budget Figure: FOI release

Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002.


Information requested

You asked for information regarding the Minister for Public Finance’s comments on the BBC Sunday Show on 3 November 2024 that the consequentials from the UK Government budget would only be worth an additional £300 million for the upcoming year’s budget. Specifically, you asked for the following:

  • Please provide the Public Finance Minister’s calculations for this.
  • Copies of all briefings provided to the Public Finance Minister since 1 October 2024 relevant to this figure.
  • Communications to and from Scottish Ministers concerning this figure since 1 October 2024.

Response

Calculation

The Minister for Public Finance was referring to the real terms impact of the increase in resource funding between 2024-25 and 2025-26. Details of the calculations are included in the table below.

 

£'billions

£'billions

RDEL (excluding depreciation)

39.8

41.1

GDP Deflator

1.000

1.024

Real terms

39.8

40.1

Increase

-

0.3

I would note that these calculations were prepared using a rounded GDP deflator prior to the Office for National Statistics publishing unrounded figures. There have been subsequent revisions to this calculation to reflect the baselining of the negative IFRS16 adjustment in 2025-26. Detailed analysis of our fiscal resource funding envelope has been included within Annex A of the Scottish Budget 2025-26

Briefing

The Minister was provided with this information via a First Minister’s Questions (FMQ) brief prepared at the time of the UK Autumn Statement. The specific briefing line was:

“For 2025/26 the Spending Review confirms a resource block grant of £41,141 million, £1,365 million higher than 2024-25, equivalent to a £328 million (0.91%) in real terms.”

Communications to and from Scottish Ministers

An exemption under section 30(b)(ii) of FOISA (free and frank provision of advice) applies to the information requested. This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank exchange of views.

We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in allowing Ministers and officials a private space within which issues can be explored and refined to enable the Government as a whole to reach a decision that is sound and likely to be effective.

These exemptions are subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemptions. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemptions.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

Contact

Please quote the FOI reference
Central Correspondence Unit
Email: contactus@gov.scot
Phone: 0300 244 4000

The Scottish Government
St Andrew's House
Regent Road
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG

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