Financial impact of the mini-budget in relation to the emergency budget review: FOI release

Information requested

1. Did the Deputy First Minister request any updated analysis around the financial impact of the minibudget following the mini-budget, in relation to the emergency budget review.
2. Any updated analysis or calculations undertaken by the finance directorate following the mini-budget to the emergency budget review between the date of the mini-budget to date of this request.

Response

On part one of your request, the Deputy First Minister did not ask for updated analysis around the financial impact of the mini-budget following the mini budget, in relation to the emergency budget review.

Following the mini-budget announcement on 23 September 2022, the Scottish Government received indicative estimates from HM Treasury of Block Grant Adjustment impacts resulting from policy changes to Income Tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax. HM Treasury then shared updated estimates following the initial U-turn by the UK Government regarding the additional rate of income tax being scrapped. The new estimates suggested a net benefit of £540 million to the Scottish Budget over the next three years, including this financial year. the Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Covid Recovery wrote to the Finance and Public Accounts Committee on 3 October 2022 to share these estimates with the committee. Please find attached the Deputy First Minister’s letter.

However, the Scottish Government has not received any subsequent updates from HM Treasury on the impact on Block Grant Adjustments of the additional UK Government policy changes that have since been announced. The 17th November Autumn Statement and the OBR forecast that underpins it will provide updated figures relating to all UK Government policy decisions up to the day of release.

Regarding part two of your request, this is a formal notice under Section 25(1) of FOISA 2002 that this information is otherwise accessible in the following link to the Emergency Budget Review: 2022 to 2023 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot).

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Fiscal Framework - BGAs - DFM letter to FPAC re HMT estimated impact to BGAs following mini-budget tax announcements - 3 October 2022

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