Data/statements relating to electricity from renewable sources: EIR release

Information requested

On the 7th September 2022 John Swinney MSP, Deputy First Minister of Scotland made the following statements;  

‘My view of the energy crisis is that there is no clearer example why Scotland should be an independent country as a consequence of the energy crisis.  We live in an energy rich country where we have virtually 100% capacity to generate our renewable electricity and we’re locked into a UK market that prices our electricity based on the wholesale gas price. What an absolute absurdity’. John Swinney MSP Scottish Parliament Debate 7.9.22  

‘Now we’ve got 100% self-sufficiency in our electricity requirements from renewables but we don’t get the financial benefit of that because of the flaws in the UK energy market’. John Swinney MSP The Nine BBC Scotland 7.9.22  

Q1. Please confirm whether these statements, from the Deputy First Minister John Swinney, are based on briefing notes from the Scottish government.  

Q2. Please confirm whether the Scottish government can provide information which supports these statements from the deputy First Minister. 

Data from the Scottish government ‘Energy Hub’ shows that in 2021 the proportion of time electricity from renewable generation (renewable generation only) was able to meet demand for electricity was 37.8% of the time. In 2020 the figure was 51.1%. There is a large discrepancy between this Scottish government data and the statement from the deputy First Minister that Scotland has ‘100% self-sufficiency in electricity requirements from renewables’.

Q3. Please confirm the level of discrepancy between Scottish government data and the statements from John Swinney.  

Q4. Please outline what procedures are in place which would enable corrections of inaccurate statements made by government ministers in the Scottish Parliament to be made.  

As I understand, the data relating to the actual electricity consumption in Scotland by energy source for 2020 is as follows; Renewables 51.6%, Nuclear 32.8%, Fossil Fuels 14.4% and Imports 1.1%. The data shows actual consumption of electricity from renewable sources was just over 50% in 2020 with 14.4% coming from fossil fuels.  In his statements on the 7th September Deputy First Minister John Swinney suggested that electricity prices in an independent Scotland would not be affected by the wholesale price of gas. 

Q5. Please indicate whether the Scottish government has carried out analysis on how electricity prices in an independent Scotland would be affected by the current energy crisis in their prospectus for an independent Scotland proposal paper; ‘Building a New Scotland’.  

Q6. Please include information on whether or not the market price for electricity in Scotland, which requires a portion of gas-generated electricity to meet its electricity demand, would be affected in the same way as it currently is, if Scotland was an independent country. 

The Scottish Government, rather than taking a neutral position on Scottish independence has taken the position of actively promoting Scottish independence.  

Q7. Please outline the responsibilities and requirements the Scottish government has currently in place to ensure accurate information is presented by its government ministers who are also actively promoting their case for Scottish independence.  

Q8. The ‘Annual Compendium of Scottish Energy Statistics’ 2020 noted that oil and gas made up 78.4% of Scotland’s overall ENERGY consumption and 91% of HEAT demand. As there was no Annual Compendium for 2021, please provide the most recent figures for the percentage of overall energy consumption coming from oil and gas and also the percentage of heat demand met by oil and gas.  

As I understand 81% of homes in Scotland have gas heating.   

Q9. Please provide an up-to-date indicative figure for the percentage of Scottish households which have gas as their main heating supply. 

Ian Blackford, SNP MP, leader of the SNP in the House of Commons, made the following statement in the House of Commons on the 7th September; ‘And almost 100% of our entire electricity production comes from renewables, that is not attention seeking Prime Minister, these are the facts’.   

And, on the same day, during an interview with ‘Representing Border’ he said; ‘Look, the situation we are in in Scotland, almost 100% of our electricity is generated through green sources yet we have the problem of the price cap and the pain consumers in Scotland face because of the wrong choices at Westminster’. 

Q10. As Ian Blackford MP is a representative of the SNP party who are currently leading the Scottish government, please confirm whether these statements are based on briefing notes from the Scottish government.  

Q11. Please confirm whether the Scottish government can provide information which supports these statements from the SNP MP leader of the SNP in the House of Commons.  

As I understand the data relating to actual electricity generation in Scotland by energy source for 2020 is as follows; Renewables 61.8%, Nuclear 25.7%, Fossil Fuels 10.9% and Others 1.6%. And the level of electricity consumed in Scotland from renewable sources was 51.6% in 2020.  

Q12. Please confirm the level of discrepancy between Scottish government data and the statements from Ian Blackford, SNP MP who claimed; ‘almost 100% of our electricity is generated through green sources’.  

Also, on the 7th September, SNP MP Kirsty Blackman said during a BBC interview shown on Reporting Scotland; ‘We absolutely will not support nuclear. Nuclear is not happening and we are not going to allow nuclear to happen in Scotland’.  

Q13. As Kirsty Blackman MP is a representative of the SNP party who are currently leading the Scottish government, please confirm whether Ms Blackman’s statement reflects the current position of the Scottish government.  

Q14. In 2021 32.8% of the electricity consumed in Scotland came from nuclear power energy source. ‘Torness’ in East Lothian is the last remaining nuclear power station currently operating in Scotland and is due to close around the year of 2028. Please provide modelling information on how this loss of almost a third of Scotland’s electricity consumption from nuclear power will be replaced.   

Q15. Please confirm whether the Scottish government anticipates that there will be an increased requirement for electricity from gas-powered electricity supply when Torness nuclear power station closes. 

Q16. Please confirm whether there is also an expectation of an increase of imported electricity from England and/or Northern Ireland to replace the loss of electricity from Scotland’s nuclear energy source which will occur in the next 5 or 6 years.  

In October 2021, prior to COP26 during a Q & A session with ‘Scottish Business Insider’ magazine, Michael Matheson Cabinet Secretary for ‘Net Zero, Energy and Transport’ said; ‘Of course there's a lot of work that's going on to demonstrate Scotland’s progress - we're one of the fastest decarbonising countries in the G20 and almost 100% of our electricity now comes from renewable sources’.  

In March 2022 during Michael Matheson’s address to the ‘Scottish Renewables Offshore Wind Conference’ he said; ‘In Scotland, nearly 100% of our net electricity demand already comes from renewable sources and we are focused on reducing energy demand and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy’.  

Q17. Please confirm whether these statements from Michael Matheson, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy, are based on briefing notes from the Scottish Government. 

Q18. Please provide information on who, together with Mr Matheson, is involved in preparing the speeches on the subject of renewable electricity in Scotland and what measures are in place to ensure information accurately reflects Scottish government energy data.  

In November 2021 during COP26 Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland said; ‘Just short of 100% of all the electricity we use is from renewable sources’.  

During a Speech delivered by Ms Sturgeon to the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, May 2022, she said; ‘Renewable energy currently accounts for almost 100% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption – which is around a third of our overall energy demand.  And we have recently completed an offshore wind licensing round which could create twice as much capacity again’.  

In August 2022 when announcing the three Shetland ‘Scotwind’ projects the First Minister said; ‘In Scotland, nearly 100% of our net electricity demand already comes from renewable sources and we are focused on reducing energy demand and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy’.  

Q19. Please confirm whether these statements from the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon are based on briefing notes from the Scottish Government. 

Q20. Please provide information on who, together with Ms Sturgeon, is involved in preparing the First Minister’s speeches on the subject of renewable electricity in Scotland and what measures are in place to ensure information accurately reflects Scottish government energy data.

Q21. As I understand electricity consumption makes up around 22% (which is not a third) of all overall energy demand. Please provide a recent figure for electricity consumption as a percentage of overall energy demand. 

Q22. Please confirm whether there is a level of discrepancy between Scottish government data and the statements included in the speeches from both Michael Matheson, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy and also from Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland. 

In 2021 there was a significant reduction in the level of electricity generated from renewable sources with electricity generated from both wind and hydro being affected. For a short time, the Scottish government’s Energy Hub included on the Graph ‘Share of renewable electricity in gross final consumption’ a figure of 82.9% for 2021 which indicated the EQUIVALENT of 82.9% of gross electricity consumption coming from renewable sources for that year.  However, the data for 2021 has now been removed and is no longer included. The most recent data relates to the figure for 2020 with the equivalent of 98.8% of gross electricity consumption from renewable sources.  

Q23. Please provide information on why this figure of 82.9% (representing the EQUIVALENT of 82.9% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption coming from renewable sources) has been removed.  

Q24. Please provide information (including the written correspondence) on who gave the instruction to remove this significant data.  

Q25. Please provide information to explain why the ‘provisional figure’ for 2020 was available throughout the year of 2021 when COP26 was being held in Glasgow, but the provisional figure for 2021 is not now available until March 2023. 

Response

Q1. Please confirm whether these statements, from the Deputy First Minister John Swinney, are based on briefing notes from the Scottish government.  

This statement refers to the renewable electricity target, which states that the Scottish Government has a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of Scotland’s own electricity demand from renewable sources by 2020. This is a measure of how much of Scotland’s annual electricity demand could be met by the total amount of renewable electricity generated in a year and is given as the equivalent percentage of gross electricity consumption (where gross electricity consumption is total energy generation minus net exports). 

In 2020 Scotland generated enough renewable electricity to meet the equivalent of 98.8% of gross final electricity consumption.  

Q2. Please confirm whether the Scottish government can provide information which supports these statements from the deputy First Minister. 

This statement refers to the renewable electricity target, which states that the Scottish Government has a target to generate the equivalent of 100% of Scotland’s own electricity demand from renewable sources by 2020. This is a measure of how much of Scotland’s annual electricity demand could be met by the total amount of renewable electricity generated in a year and is given as the equivalent percentage of gross electricity consumption (where gross electricity consumption is total energy generation minus net exports). 

In 2020 Scotland generated enough renewable electricity to meet the equivalent of 98.8% of gross final electricity consumption.  

Q3. Please confirm the level of discrepancy between Scottish government data and the statements from John Swinney.  

In 2020 Scotland generated enough renewable electricity to meet the equivalent of 98.8% of final gross electricity consumption in 2020. In this year the proportion of time electricity from renewable generation (renewable generation only) was able to meet demand for electricity was 51.1%. 

Q4. Please outline what procedures are in place which would enable corrections of inaccurate statements made by government ministers in the Scottish Parliament to be made.  

The guidance on the correction of inaccuracies of information provided in Parliamentary proceedings can be found on the Scottish Parliament website here: Corrections and changes to the Official Report | Scottish Parliament Website. 

Q5. Please indicate whether the Scottish government has carried out analysis on how electricity prices in an independent Scotland would be affected by the current energy crisis in their prospectus for an independent Scotland proposal paper; ‘Building a New Scotland’.  

Under the terms of the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.

Q6. Please include information on whether or not the market price for electricity in Scotland, which requires a portion of gas-generated electricity to meet its electricity demand, would be affected in the same way as it currently is, if Scotland was an independent country. 

Under the terms of the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested.

Q7. Please outline the responsibilities and requirements the Scottish government has currently in place to ensure accurate information is presented by its government ministers who are also actively promoting their case for Scottish independence.  

The Scottish Government Civil Servant code sets out the standards expected of civil servants and can be found here: Civil Service Code - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). 

Q8. The ‘Annual Compendium of Scottish Energy Statistics’ 2020 noted that oil and gas made up 78.4% of Scotland’s overall ENERGY consumption and 91% of HEAT demand. As there was no Annual Compendium for 2021, please provide the most recent figures for the percentage of overall energy consumption coming from oil and gas and also the percentage of heat demand met by oil and gas.

The Annual Compendium has been superseded by the Scottish Energy Statistics Hub. This is to prevent out of date figures being used from the compendium when more up to date figures are available on the Energy Statistics Hub. The most up to date figures are from 2020. The percentage of overall energy consumption coming from oil and gas is 77.6% and the percentage of heat demand met by oil and gas is 92.2% Scottish Energy Statistics Hub (shinyapps.io).

Q9. Please provide an up-to-date indicative figure for the percentage of Scottish households which have gas as their main heating supply. 

This information is published annually in the Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS) available online at Scottish House Condition Survey: 2019 Key Findings (www.gov.scot). The latest available figure of 81% from the 2019 SHCS is shown in Table 5. The 2020 SHCS was not completed due to the effects of COVID–19 and there is no data available for that year. The results of the 2021 SHCS are expected to be published in February 2023.

Q10. As Ian Blackford MP is a representative of the SNP party who are currently leading the Scottish government, please confirm whether these statements are based on briefing notes from the Scottish government.  

The Scottish Government is a wholly separate legal entity from the Scottish National Party. The Ministerial Code states that Scottish Government resources can only be used by Scottish Ministers for official government business and must not be used for party political purposes. As Ian Blackford MP is neither a Minister nor a civil servant in the Scottish Government, the Scottish Government would not prepare any briefings for him.

Q11. Please confirm whether the Scottish government can provide information which supports these statements from the SNP MP leader of the SNP in the House of Commons.

The Scottish Government is a wholly separate legal entity from the Scottish National Party. The Ministerial Code states that Scottish Government resources can only be used by Scottish Ministers for official government business and must not be used for party political purposes. As Ian Blackford MP is neither a Minister nor a civil servant in the Scottish Government, the Scottish Government would not prepare any briefings for him.

Q12. Please confirm the level of discrepancy between Scottish government data and the statements from Ian Blackford, SNP MP who claimed; ‘almost 100% of our electricity is generated through green sources’. 

As previously stated, the Scottish Government is a wholly separate legal entity from the Scottish National Party. The Ministerial Code states that Scottish Government resources can only be used by Scottish Ministers for official government business and must not be used for party political purposes. As Ian Blackford MP is neither a Minister nor a civil servant in the Scottish Government, the Scottish Government would not prepare any briefings for him and therefore cannot account for his use of renewable energy statistics.

Q13. As Kirsty Blackman MP is a representative of the SNP party who are currently leading the Scottish government, please confirm whether Ms Blackman’s statement reflects the current position of the Scottish government.

The Scottish Government’s position is publicly available online. We do not support the building of any new nuclear power stations in Scotland under current technologies.  For example, this position can be found in The Scottish Energy Strategy 2017.

Q14. In 2021 32.8% of the electricity consumed in Scotland came from nuclear power energy source. ‘Torness’ in East Lothian is the last remaining nuclear power station currently operating in Scotland and is due to close around the year of 2028. Please provide modelling information on how this loss of almost a third of Scotland’s electricity consumption from nuclear power will be replaced.

Modelling work was undertaken as part of a recent completed independent study on Scotland’s future energy system. The full report, including modelling results on potential electricity system futures can be found here:

Scottish whole energy system scenarios (climatexchange.org.uk).

Q15. Please confirm whether the Scottish government anticipates that there will be an increased requirement for electricity from gas-powered electricity supply when Torness nuclear power station closes. 

The future electricity supply mix is unknown and will depend on the direction of a number of future market developments and the market landscape. These include subsidy support schemes for renewables such as the CFD, CCUS business models, gas prices, carbon prices, regulatory developments on transmission costs and networks, network upgrades and investment, and the electricity generation investment landscape more broadly.

As per Q14 however, the Energy Systems Catapult Scottish Whole Systems Scenarios analysis sets out 3 potential scenarios, which include details on the potential future electricity generation mix. the full report can be found here:

Scottish whole energy system scenarios (climatexchange.org.uk).

Q16. Please confirm whether there is also an expectation of an increase of imported electricity from England and/or Northern Ireland to replace the loss of electricity from Scotland’s nuclear energy source which will occur in the next 5 or 6 years.  

The future electricity supply mix is unknown and will depend on the direction of a number of future market developments and the market landscape. These include subsidy support schemes for renewables such as the CFD, CCUS business models, gas prices, carbon prices, regulatory developments on transmission costs and networks, network upgrades and investment, and the electricity generation investment landscape more broadly.

As per Q14 however, the Energy Systems Catapult Scottish Whole Systems Scenarios analysis sets out 3 potential scenarios, which include details on the potential future electricity generation mix. The full report can be found here:

Scottish whole energy system scenarios (climatexchange.org.uk).

Q17. Please confirm whether these statements from Michael Matheson, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy, are based on briefing notes from the Scottish Government. 

The Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport, Michael Matheson MSP, received briefing from Scottish Government officials which supports the statements made.

Q18. Please provide information on who, together with Mr Matheson, is involved in preparing the speeches on the subject of renewable electricity in Scotland and what measures are in place to ensure information accurately reflects Scottish government energy data.

Scottish Government officials are involved in the preparation of the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport, Michael Matheson MSP’s speeches on renewable electricity in Scotland. 

Q19. Please confirm whether these statements from the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon are based on briefing notes from the Scottish Government. 

The First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon MSP, received briefing from Scottish Government officials supporting the statements made at these events and also during COP26.

Q20. Please provide information on who, together with Ms Sturgeon, is involved in preparing the First Minister’s speeches on the subject of renewable electricity in Scotland and what measures are in place to ensure information accurately reflects Scottish government energy data.

Scottish Government officials are involved in the preparation of the First Minister’s speeches on renewable electricity in Scotland.

Q21. As I understand electricity consumption makes up around 22% (which is not a third) of all overall energy demand. Please provide a recent figure for electricity consumption as a percentage of overall energy demand. 

The most up to date data we have for this is from 2020 and is 22.2% (Scottish Energy Statistics Hub (shinyapps.io))

Q22. Please confirm whether there is a level of discrepancy between Scottish government data and the statements included in the speeches from both Michael Matheson, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy and also from Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland.  

While there was a minor discrepancy between Scottish Government data and the statements made. Ministers were setting out that the equivalent of almost 100% of Scotland’s gross final electricity demand is met by renewables.

Q23. Please provide information on why this figure of 82.9% (representing the EQUIVALENT of 82.9% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption coming from renewable sources) has been removed.  

Q24. Please provide information (including the written correspondence) on who gave the instruction to remove this significant data.  

Q25. Please provide information to explain why the ‘provisional figure’ for 2020 was available throughout the year of 2021 when COP26 was being held in Glasgow, but the provisional figure for 2021 is not now available until March 2023.

Provisional numbers relating to the renewable electricity target were calculated for a number of years prior to final reporting of the target year of 2020. To do this, the consumption data from the previous year were rolled forwards because subnational consumption data are not available until the following December - i.e. 2020 subnational consumption data were released in December 2021, so 2019 consumption data were used to calculate provisional 2020 percentages in the run up to final reporting. 

Provisional 2021 figures have not been calculated for a number of reasons: first, it is now known that 2020 was an abnormal year for electricity consumption due to the pandemic. Therefore, the expected error involved in any provisional figures calculated would have been large and the figures potentially misleading; second, releasing provisional numbers in the past has led to problems with out of date figures being used; third, the target year has been reached and reported on, therefore, there was less need for provisional updates. 

Scottish Government analysts decided to update the target once all final data was available, in order to address the issues raised above. 

A provisional 2021 figure was published in error on the Scottish Energy Statistics Hub, and it was removed as soon as it was noticed for the reasons outlined above. There was a processing error which led to the publication of this figure which has now been addressed. We will continue to monitor the renewable electricity target and will be publishing final numbers when all data is available. This is final data for 2021. An update to the target will be published within the quarterly energy statistics bulletin, which is due out on the same day and the Energy Statistics hub will be updated early in the New Year after the festive period. 

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