Monthly GDP Estimates for December

Scotland’s GDP fell by 0.3% in December, according to statistics announced today by the Chief Statistician. This is the second consecutive monthly fall in GDP, as restrictions on economic activity continued at the start of the month and were later extended across Scotland after Christmas. Output remains 7.2% below the level in February, prior to the direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In December there was total growth of 0.3% across the services sector, but further falls in the subsectors which are directly impacted by the restrictions in Protection Levels 1 to 4. The manufacturing and construction sectors are both estimated to have fallen by 2.4% in December, which are the first falls in these industries since April.

GDP is provisionally estimated to have increased by 1.6% in Quarter 4 as a whole (October to December) compared to Quarter 3. In annual terms, comparing 2020 to 2019, GDP is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 10.6%. These results will be updated in the national statistics GDP First Estimate for Quarter 3, which will be published on 17 March.

Background

The Monthly GDP Estimate for December is available at:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-december-2020

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are designated as experimental official statistics. This means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). GDP growth in this publication relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction.

Further information on GDP statistics is available at http://www.gov.scot/gdp

These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics – more information on the standards of official statistics can be accessed at: https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/code-of-practice/