GDP revised to a fall of 0.2% in 2019 quarter 2

GDP is now estimated to have fallen by 0.2% during the second quarter of 2019, according to statistics announced  by the Chief Statistician. The fall in output has been revised up from the first estimate of 0.3%, published on 18 September, because of stronger growth in the services sector.

During the second quarter, the revised figures show that output in the construction sector fell by 2.4%, output in the production sector fell by 1.5%, and output in the services sector grew by 0.2%.

As reported in the first estimate, two sub-sectors of manufacturing (food and drink, pharmaceutical and related industries) account for most of the contraction this quarter. Output in these industries fell back after a strong performance in the first quarter.

When compared to the second quarter of 2018, growth over the year is now estimated at 0.6%. This has been revised down from the first estimate of 0.7% because growth in the previous two quarters has been revised down slightly.

The GDP Quarterly National Accounts publication includes the second estimate of growth for the April to June period. This uses data which has been released since the first estimate was published. The Quarterly National Accounts also includes a range of other statistics which are used for economic analysis, forecasting and modelling.

Background

The full statistical publication and data are on the Scottish Government website.

Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. Two estimates of GDP growth are published each quarter. The first estimate for 2019 Quarter 3 (July-September) will be published on 18 December.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation). GDP growth in this publication relates to Scotland’s onshore economy, which means it does not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction. Estimates of the cash value of Scotland’s GDP are available excluding and including oil and gas extraction.
Further information on GDP statistics is on the Scottish Government website.

These estimates are compiled in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics – more information on the standards of official statistics in Scotland is available.