UK Covid-19 Inquiry - Module 1 report: progress update - July 2026

3. Risk assessment

Recommendation Three – A better approach to risk assessment

Chair’s recommendation:

The UK Government and devolved governments should work together on developing a new approach to risk assessment that moves away from a reliance on single reasonable worst-case scenarios towards an approach that:

• Assesses a wider range of scenarios representative of the different risks and the range of each kind of risk;
• Considers the prevention and mitigation of an emergency in addition to dealing with its consequences;
• Provides a full analysis of the ways in which the combined impacts of different risks may complicate or worsen an emergency;
• Assesses long-term risks in addition to short-term risks and considers how they may interact with each other;
• Undertakes an assessment of the impact of each risk on vulnerable people; and
• Takes into account the capacity and capabilities of the UK.

In doing so, the UK Government and devolved governments should perform risk assessments that reflect the circumstances and characteristics particular to England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK as a whole.

Implementation actions and timescales set out in our January 2025 response:

• Our review and implementation of any improvements will be completed by the end of 2025.

Progress update as at July 2026:

• The Scottish Government has completed its review and is well underway with developing the next iteration of the Scottish Risk Assessment (SRA), scheduled for late 2027. The updated SRA will contain all risks relevant to Scotland in a single document, moving away from using both the UK Government’s National Security Risk Assessment and the SRA as a supplementary document.
• In line with the Chair’s recommendation, Scottish Government officials have set up a Scottish Risk Assessment Group (SRAG), comprising of responders, subject matter experts, and policy officials, to review risks and adapt them for Scotland where required. The SRAG will consider how specific risks can make people vulnerable, assisting planners in improving their approach to vulnerability in emergency planning. This approach will ensure that risk assessment is tailored to the Scottish context and takes into account additional risks which are specific to Scotland.
• This recommendation, alongside work already undertaken, was considered as part of the Scottish Government’s response to the Inquiry’s Module 2 Report (Recommendations 8), published 17 March 2026.

The Scottish Government wrote to the inquiry chair on 18 May 2026 to confirm that this recommendation has been delivered and closed.